What has caused the increase in gun values?

There are some cars that are basically cheaper than 10 yrs ago. Not many but some. A new Chevy Impala now sells for less than they did back in 2004 but you get a lot more plastic car than you did back then.

A 2010 Toyota Tundra has an MSRP very close to what my 2000 Tundra had. Though, the 2010 is a larger vehicle with a larger engine and gets better MPG.

It is difficult to compare car prices from 50 years ago. Typically, a car 50 years ago was about worn out at 75k miles with fading and peeling paint after a few years. Modern vehicles of today typically operate like new at 75k.
 
Lee, you went back 50 yrs on the house. My house is 15 yrs old. Ten yrs ago it was valued at $377,850. In November of last yr it was valued at $190,000.
I understand that. I specifically covered that with the 'burst bubble' and the law of supply and demand. Why would someone pay $377,850 for your house right now, when there is one being marketed by a bank or mortgage company just like it for half that? So, the 'value' of yours has lowered. The cost has not lowered as much. Let's say your $190,000 house would currently cost $250,000 to build- the lot, labor, materials, and logistics- and I mean right now, with no profit figured in. Sure, materials and labor are down- right now. They are down because demand is down, supplies are therefore up. Would someone spend 250 to build it, and sell it for 190?
Probably not. So, we have cost, and we have a current market value. I have seen these cycles to some degree all my life. If the boom comes back, and houses like yours start selling at $377,850, will you take 190 for yours?
 
A 2010 Toyota Tundra has an MSRP very close to what my 2000 Tundra had. Though, the 2010 is a larger vehicle with a larger engine and gets better MPG.
Granted, some prices appear to go down, but not really. Apples are sometimes cheaper than oranges.
If that 2000 Tundra was still being made EXACTLY as it was in 2000, today, in 2010, would IT be the same price as in 2000?
IF that 2010 Tundra is being made EXACTLY as it is now in 2018, will it be the same, less, or more?
 
Well we certainly got off track on this one, didn't we?
Back to the subject, I agree that much of the interest, and price increase in handguns has come from the internet. Until I started down this path a couple of years ago, doing a little research on the internet, and found forums like this, I had no idea that you could buy firearms over the internet. I think that like everything else of value, there are cycles and it will level off, move up, move down. And it is still relative to the time and situations- What was the average income when that house was $14,000? Or the Japanese currency rate in 2000? Desirability of a S & W in the Clinton years?
 
Gun sales in the lower Hudson Valley are quite brisk, though not quite at the same pace as 2008. A local dealer put out 5 black rifles last week, they were gone in 2 days.
Many more people buying milsurps right now, such as Mosin-Nagants.
 
Granted, some prices appear to go down, but not really. Apples are sometimes cheaper than oranges.
If that 2000 Tundra was still being made EXACTLY as it was in 2000, today, in 2010, would IT be the same price as in 2000?
IF that 2010 Tundra is being made EXACTLY as it is now in 2018, will it be the same, less, or more?

The 2000 and 2010 both made in America, and both made with a high percentage of American made parts. The 2010 is much more vehicle than the 2000. During that time period, Toyota invested a whopping $1.5 billion for a new truck plant in Austin. So.... my hunch is that costs per unit went up significantly while the product improved and price stayed relatively static. Taking inflation into account 2000-2010, (just under 3% per year) would make the inflation adjusted 2010 MSRP significantly less than the 2000.

ps I bought a Texas Instruments basic calculator in the early 1970's for about $125. A similar calculator can be bought at Dollar General today for $1. Let me know when the basic calculator price actually climbs again with inflation once the price bottoms out.:D


---- BacK on OP subject. Another thing that has driven firearms demand is less restrictions on concealed carry in many states.


Ladder13,

Black gun inventory is up in this area and prices are being reduced.
 
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Don hit the nail on the head. Gun Auctions and Forums like this have increased interest. The same way Barret-Jackson has driven up the value of Classic Autos.
 
I concede.
I'm catching on- if I wait long enough, everything will be free. :D

My point about the trucks- they can't be the same in cost to produce. It may appear cost per unit should have gone up, but maybe not. Changing technology, robotics, and Chinese parts may have kept cost per unit static, or lowered it.
Retail is static because they can make far more trucks than they can sell in tough times. Do you think the truck made today, in 2010, could have been made for less in 2000 with the exact same materials, technology, and labor? I do.

I covered the calculator earlier. The one you paid a dollar for would have been probably 6 cents in 1970, assuming the same materials, technology, labor force, and methods had been available.

I said earlier MOST consumables double about every 10-12 years. Simple inflation.
 
Don hit the nail on the head. Gun Auctions and Forums like this have increased interest. The same way Barret-Jackson has driven up the value of Classic Autos.

Barrett Jackson did not drive the price of classics up. It has always been high. Barrett Jackson just brought your attention to it.

I sold three classics back in the early 80's. Made enough off them to pay for me a new four seat Cessna. Nobody wanted to fool with old cars back then other than the true car buff.

Barrett Jackson televised the auctions and got public attention to the prices. Suddenly everyone with an old car began working on it.
 
I have a Browning A5 12ga NIB. Barrel has never been on rcvr. I bought/traded for it Nov08. Price $850. Its ser # says it was made 1967 in Belgium. Original price on box is $187.50. Thats a pretty good return for the money over 40 years. Its a quality gun. I personally think it was John Browning's best.
Quality has always been expensive. I think lots of the increase in gun prices in the past 2-3 years is the falling dollar. i came back from Iraq in 2004. A Euro was worth $.89--Now a Euro goes For $1.45. Theres now 88 yen to the dollar. 5 years ago it was 115 yen. Quality guns are good investment and will keep rising in price. Esp with these new 0bambux

Your value is way low for the Belgium Browning. I sold two last year, one '53 model and one a '61 model. Both were hunting guns and while used a lot, were also well cared for. I got $970 for one and $1200 for the other.

NIB, Belgium made, I would give almost twice what you estimate for it.
 
Barrett Jackson televised the auctions and got public attention to the prices. Suddenly everyone with an old car began working on it

Whats funny is now every clown thats got grandmas old rusted out slant six plymouth out back thinks its gold. They see a restored, documented hemi road runner sell for big bucks and think that the old POS out back is just the same... I was into mid sixtys corvettes a while back. Prices on them have been pretty flat for a long time. Some cars have moments in the spot light so to say.

The internet does seemed to have helped gun collecting. The internet has ruined other collectible items, baseball cards, old toy trains, and a ton more. Items once thought rare were on eBay every day, they really werent all so rare after all...
 
Whats funny is now every clown thats got grandmas old rusted out slant six plymouth out back thinks its gold. They see a restored, documented hemi road runner sell for big bucks and think that the old POS out back is just the same...

Good point and human nature. Because certain guns do command big prices from collectors, every jerk who has one that granpa left that bounced around under the truck seat and laid in the bottom of the boat wants that price because it's "collectible" . . . :rolleyes:

The internet does seemed to have helped >[ -and hurt (added edit)]< gun collecting. The internet has ruined other collectible items, baseball cards, old toy trains, and a ton more. Items once thought rare were on eBay every day, they really werent all so rare after all...

Such as it was all over the country before the computer and the 'net opened up the world. Back in the 70's I remember being frustrated because we would look at the catalogs and inquire of the local dealers and were told that there were models they 'just couldn't seem to get'. Come to find out, it was usually that popular models were being gouged for premium prices by the distributors and the company reps were steering the product to certain areas and favorite customers ( and who knows for what recompense aside from their employment salary and commissions ?)

A recent thread on one of the old catalogs and the prices listed simply reminded me that the disconnect between what was purported to be available (that we never even saw) and the disparity between what the S&W catalog said the price should be and what the selling price actually was from a retail store (should you ever even see a specimen) was quite different. And the gun magazines, as usual, only fueled fires and painted unrealistic pictures for a lot of us.

Like the old song said, "what is and what should never be". Human nature and economics. Young people today may intellectually be able to grasp and realize what I'm talking about, but those who grew up with the internet take for granted that Texas or California or Tokyo for that matter is a lot 'closer' and more accessible to the Average Joe in Backwater, USA, than in just a few short years past. Many of us who are buying these guns today from all over the country simply did not have the access to them, the opportunity, or the money to pursue our hobby such when we were younger.

When there is a only finite amount of product available and more people want it, the price of eggs goes up. It's just that now the potential realistic purchasing pool has expanded beyond the wildest dreams of sellers from just a few years ago.
 
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So, if I had several guns I wanted to sell, I would be better off selling them on the internet vs a local gun show?

I have problems with both methods, and would appreciate advice. Keep in mind, as a salesman, I suck.

I'm not worried about getting maximum dollars, but I don't want the gap in financial gain between the two methods to be too large.

I mostly think about doing the gun show thing, but that's a lot of work, and I'm lazy. I talk to plenty of new folks all week at work, and like a little quiet time on the weekends. I know the answer to that problem is to "man up", but doing what I want is manly enough for me.

Besides the usual hassles of shipping, I have to drive about 40 minutes one-way to a "real" UPS or FedEx center. I've lived here less than 2 years, and have only bought one gun during that time, so I don't know how crazy any of the local dealers would be about shipping out 20 or so guns for me. I wouldn't like it if I were them.

So far all that has led me to the conclusion that it's easier to keep them, and I still enjoy having them.
 
Interesting responses and I appreciate it.
I guess what I'm trying to understand is why S@W revolvers in general have risen so much and so quickly in about the last dozen years. And it's not just the high end stuff, although that has been significant. Some examples from my modest collection, with prices paid, all from about '97 to '02.

M10-8 4"- At least a 98% gun. $175.
M12 4 screw 2"- About 90%. $300
Pre M15 2"- About 90% $200.
M18-99%. $225
M27-2 4"-99%. $350.
38/44 Heavy Duty made in '52-95%. $250
38/44 Outdoorsman Transitional with (according to GLL) a RM barrel-95%. $400.
Then of course there are the stainless guns that have achieved kind of a cult-like status, at least according to what I've read here. I.E. the M66 2 1/2", the M624 the M696 and the M296. They could all be sold for at least twice what I paid for them.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy that my collection is increasing in value, and my Wife will likely reap the benefits. I guess I just don't see the reason for the dramatic increase so quickly in guns that are not really the target (pardon the pun) of the gun haters. I understand ARs and AKs and high -cap auto pistols going up in value, since they are the ones most often restricted or banned. But what has spurred this dramatic rise so quickly in good old revolvers, especially in a very bad economy, and where do you see it going in the next decade? (Boy, NOW I'm gonna get some interesting responses!)Thanks,
Jim
 
1. A more liquid market due to internet sites like this one along with GB, AA, GA etc. This forum has been a wealth of knowledge and helped to fuel the collecting addiction to a wider variety of S&W's.
2. Cost of new S&W's makes the older ones a better value.
3. Gun legislation allowing for concealed carry, easier transfers (C&R license etc). I know those collectors in CA would feel different, but it has not hindered collecting only fueled it in most areas.
4. Low transaction cost. For roughly $25-$50 you can ship and pay transfer fee. This helps with liquidity in the market.
5. Books-The books by Jinks, Supica, Canfield, J Still etc. helps to drive markets. The more variations, the more interest in acquiring.
6. Historical returns on some firearms are perceived to be a good investment. Doubling your money in 10 years is roughly a 7% per year return. Not a bad deal if you compared it to the last 10 years, but not great deal considering the last 50 years of stock/bond returns. Still, the experience of gun owners that attend gun shows that is if they buy right at least they won't take a loss later on with most making a few bucks.
7. Male dominated market. The sheer competition of hunting for and owning something your buddy (or internet buddy) wants and may not have. Childish but true, just spend a weekend in Tulsa!
8. Variety! Thousands of military historical and commercial arms can keep you in this game for a lifetime as you learn more and change collecting habits. I've gone from US Military to WWII german to S&W.
9. Disposable income of 40+ and rising wages of middle class (at least up until 2008) in past 30 years. More buyers in this market.

Just my two cents!
 
In the late sixties a snub nosed SW police price was 49.50. One time exception from some tax or another I don't remember. Of course I made 10.000 per year, overtime was non existent. Bought a new ford Galaxy 500 2 door hard top 390 engine 2.400 dollars from dealer that had the police contract. Police discount, my house cost 9,500 VA loan. My Levies were made in the USA, my car was made in the USA, my house was built by a non union contractor, was it fancy heck no, but it was more than we really needed. Am I better off, I doubt it. I have more disposable income but I have no kids to feed. Lets face it times have changed. Back then every thing was made in America, including the guns we bought. the real only exception were Browning High Powers, Walter PP. Police wouldn't OK any foreign made gun . Our whole economy has changed from manufacturing to service. I'm not even sure Colt and S&W are American Companies. Inflation will catch us, it has to. Debt is going to make our money worth less and less. One bright spot is the gun and ammo market seem healthy but for a unhealthy reason....Fear As stated before what really woke me up was Levies, what is more American than Levies....Not anymore...Not made in America.......As long as we continue to buy non American products we will put up with inflated prices and high un-employment. My best investments right now are my guns, but if I have to sell due to a economic down turn, they are gone forever. Sell high, buy high...Not much or a deal. then there is the government as of now not a gun lovers dream. We still don't know what lies ahead......we may be forced to sell to the government at a pre determined price...I know it can't happen here...don't be to sure...As some one said in this thread we tend to be lazy and then like to complain. What ever your beliefs...Vote....That is the real American way...... Australia was a gun loving country. Now look....Just my old timers opinion.....
 
I said earlier MOST consumables double about every 10-12 years. Simple inflation.

I heard you the first time ;)

That was true in the mid 1970'-80s but is not the case the past 25 years or so.

Take a look at the data. (see link below) Pretty cool chart you can view by decade.

Since 1984 (base line of 100) prices have increased a total of 114% so says the data. If they were doubling every 10 years as you suggest, what cost $100 in 1984 would have cost $200 in 1994; $400 in 2004, and $600 today. Instead, the chart tells us price increased from $100 to $214 over the 26 year period. Now... consider for a moment if you were to take the huge price increase in heathcare out of the equation. The data would suggest a much slower pace of consumer prices increase for most stuff. The last 25 years is what most folks 30-40 years of age would reference their experience.

Historical Consumer Price Index
 
Supply and Demand.

Notice how the supply of Pre-Lock S&Ws goes down,
the prices go up.
The number of ARs goes up, the prices go down.

On certain guns its because of the collectability that
prices go up.

Rule 303
 

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