When does rarity hurt, rather than help, value?

[two-bit cowboy]

The title of this thread motivated me to read every post.

I agree with the folks who expressed the thought that collectors of
a model with rare features might number fewer than the known
numbers of that model. Perhaps that is especially true of models
as ubiquitous as the Model 10 or my cherished Chiefs Specials.

 

[USBP SW]

I have personally been involved in firearms within our government agencies. In my agency, we were unable to personally purchase any government firearms, I would have happily purchased my duty revolver, a Ruger Security six, I was really interested in several Smith and Wesson model 18's that we had for training purposes but the government would never sell any firearms to the agency personnel. We had to pack any previously issued firearms and send them out for destruction. I saw Smith and Wesson model 19, 66, 686, Ruger Security Six, GP100 and some old Colt revolvers, all shipped back east for destruction. I never saw any direct evidence but heard rumors that they cut the part of the frame with the serial number and sent the rest of the firearm to a foundry. I also heard that some were sent to foreign governments but those were also rumors. I believe that our government would prefer to waste our taxpayer money, rather than get the most out of the investments, because firearms have become too controversial and the government is concerned about liability in our suit happy society. I believe that something changed after world war two and the days of surplus American firearms, post WW2 are gone forever.

 

[SnidelyWhiplash]

Rarity certainly doesn't automatically confer value. A 1969 Corvette with the base 3-speed manual transmission is pretty rare as few were ordered and built. But Corvette buyers don't want them and won't pay much for them unless they want to build a resto-mod out of it.

People will pay big bucks for an original Colt Python...but they're not rare...over 600k were built.

There's intrinsic value and conveyed value. Intrinsic value is based upon what the materials involved are worth...conveyed value is what we place on it for any number of reasons...who it might be associated with or a family heirloom.

A particular handgun or long gun is worth so much due to costs of manufacture but the same gun if associated with someone famous or infamous gives it value out of all proportion. A Colt Single Action Army has so much market value but two years ago the SAA that's documented as the one Pat Garrett used to kill Billy the Kid sold at auction for over $6 million. That's conveyed value.

 

[Bald1]

There’s a USAF Model 15 on GB for $3k. It’s very nice but nowhere near perfect. Without the stamp it’s probably a $800 gun in my neck of the woods . Kinda crazy when you think about it

 

[vistafjord]

there are currently 3 USAF marked Model 15s on GB. When it rains it pours...

 

[ken158]

While it doesn’t explain the difference between demand for USAF 15’s and US marked 10’s, I do think the plain Jane appearance of these guns does have something to do with it
Regarding how common, I guess one would have to see if any U.S. marked contract overruns were ever released on the civilian or law enforcement market.
Also, the aid to police agencies program the government runs ( has a more official name just can’t recall right now) probably released tons of model 10’s and other revolvers to police agencies. The agreement was supposed to be once the agency was done using it it was to be returned to the feds.

However as is often the case, some agency with 300 officers and 300 model 10’s, a few of which were US marked, traded for new autoloaders and a big bin of model 10’s goes to a wholesaler or gun shop, the us marked guns piled in with the others, with the long forgotten agreement a thing of history.
Other than while in service I have never seen a military marked 10 or 15 in person

I think the Major is referring to the lend / lease program where as the US offered weapons to police departments and other military in friendly countries. I know in my area, just about every department has something that came from that program. Usually a Thompson or machine gun of some sorts that only comes out on range day for the troops to fondle and shoot. Modern SWAT teams have no use for such antiques. I tried my best to dump a Thompson to a dealer that was going to provide us with some HK’s in return but the ATF researched the paperwork and the deal fell apart. As I recall, the only option was to return it to the government or apply for a museum transfer which they said would take sign offs by a multitude of red tape people.

 

[Modified]

I keep trying to read this and my kids keep interrupting me, so pardon me if this is a repeated thought, I don't think I saw this;

When I see someone selling something that they say is *RARE*, particularly when it it is a common gun that is only rare due to the history associated with it, my brain immediately jumps to the thought: Fake.

I'm sure I'm not the only one.

It's why I have no interest in original boxes. My default position on them is that it's faked. Ruins the whole thing for me.

I've seen so many gunshow people claiming some variation of a gun being "Hitler's personal S&W model 10-2!", backed up by online auctions flooded with similar examples that it's hard not to be jaded.

 

[Grayfox]

The basic problem is that you know what a rare and desirable piece it is.
To everybody else, its just another Model 10.

 

[rwsmith]

Oh!

...., met Capt Crunch during the Clinton Administration...

Oh, HORRORS!

Military grade assault revolvers?

 

[arjay]

All it would take is a few published,highly visible articles about them to generate more interest. Collectors need that competition to have something no one else has,but they need to know an item exists.

 

[DWalt]

Then there is the Colt 3-5-7. It was the immediate predecessor to the Python, and essentially identical to it except for the barrel profile. But far fewer 3-5-7s were made vs. Python, something like 3% of the number. Yet a Python will sell for about triple the price of the far less common 3-5-7. Go figure.

 

[luvsmiths]

Why were some of the USAF guns marked "USAF" and others marked only US?

 

[luvsmiths]

there are currently 3 USAF marked Model 15s on GB. When it rains it pours...

I'm only finding one and it is really high condition- and price is not bad at all.. ( at this point)

let's see where it goes.

 

[kwill1911]

I think you'll find that the U.S. marked guns were usually Army shipments, at least with Model 15s.

 

[luvsmiths]

I think you'll find that the U.S. marked guns were usually Army shipments, at least with Model 15s.

Understood, but I can almost swear that I have read on here of US marked USAF 15's.
I could be wrong, and the search never works out for me on here so I cant find them!

 

[kwill1911]

Yes, I've logged a few Model 15-1 revolvers marked U.S. that were shipped to the Air Force in 1960-1962. When the 15-2 revolvers start being shipped they marked them U.S.A.F. I've noted only six 15-1s with U.S. but dozens of 15-2s with U.S.A.F.

 

[luvsmiths]

Yes, I've logged a few Model 15-1 revolvers marked U.S. that were shipped to the Air Force in 1960-1962. When the 15-2 revolvers start being shipped they marked them U.S.A.F. I've noted only six 15-1s with U.S. but dozens of 15-2s with U.S.A.F.

So was it simply that before USAF began using the 15s that some of the USA guns wound up going to Warner Robins from what you have found?

 

[Geeorge]

Rare and valuable are two different things, just because somethings rare make it valuable.

Seems like everyone today thinks they have found rare treasure, most likely not

 

[RM Vivas]

I think rarity hurts in two places:

1) Estimating value. You have an early Model 29. Fine. There's a few dozen of them that have sold at auction and at least twenty are in the configuration you have, so you should have a good idea of what it is worth. BUT, your model was a one gun shipment to Elmer Keith; now how do you value it? There are decidedly less comparibles to put it up against.

2) Market demand. I have 4 S&W M3983's. Only ten were made. I know what I paid for them but since they are so scarce how do we value them? Also, what kind of demand is there for them? They are not really a new design or a well known model, so because very few people know of them, there is very little demand and that translates into lower price.

I think these are two instances of rarity hurting.

Best,
RM Vivas