Where Has Our Ammo Gone?

[roundgunner]

Interesting... and I think the storage is frenzy in part but with the massive
price increases in 16months, sales have likely dropped and orders scaled back
in the beginning NOT to mention that Iraq sucked up a good portion of the output.
For a year now, its been impossible to find Black Hills Blue Box reloads in good
VMax weights and sure I have seen some recently but their prices are atrocious.
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Ignatius Piazza: Where Has Our Ammo Gone?
March 23rd, 2009
http://www.ignatius-piazza-fro...e-has-our-ammo-gone/
I want to thank all of you for sending me your interesting comments, videos, pictures,
and links to topics that have some relationship to gun ownership, firearms training, or
the Second Amendment.
I appreciate all of them and do my best to respond personally to you. Even if all you
receive from me is a quick thanks, please know that I am reading what you send.
This week I am addressing the issues surrounding what appears to be an ammunition
shortage in our country and providing you with my prediction of what is to come….
First, let's put the current ammunition shortage into perspective.
What is currently happening ACROSS THE COUNTRY at every gun shop, sporting goods store, gun show, and with every Internet ammo supplier is nothing more than an ammunition buying frenzy that has surpassed the normal production capabilities of the current ammunition manufacturers and distributors.
I do not believe, as I have seen no CREDIBLE evidence, that there is a CURRENTLY a conspiracy by the Federal Government or the United Nations or anyone else to slow or stop the production and distribution of ammunition in the United States.
Just as you could walk down to your local hardware store and purchase a generator on any day of the week a few months prior to Y2K, if you tried to make a purchase two weeks before Y2K there was not a single generator in any hardware store and all of the manufacturers had sold out their production. There was no government conspiracy to prevent people from having a generator, there was just a buying demand that exceeding manufacturing and distribution capabilities.
The generator manufacturers and distributors were simply not able to keep up the demand during that generator buying frenzy in the last weeks prior to Y2K.
The same thing happened to MRE's (military Meals Ready to Eat) and bottled water in the weeks before Y2K.
So what has caused the current ammunition buying frenzy?
The same thing that caused the Y2K frenzy. FEAR.
People are afraid the current government is conspiring to eliminate our ability to use guns to defend ourselves by drying up the ammunition supplies.
Where did the American people get this idea?
From legislation introduced in various states to require micro-stamping of bullets and cartridge cases of new ammo and the banning or confiscation of any ammo not fulfilling the requirement, in addition to the election of Barrack Obama who has a voting record of supporting such legislation.
Well, I have not jumped in on this topic (even though I receive e-mail every day asking me to spread the fear far and wide) because there is no reason to create hysteria over legislation that is introduced but has no co-sponsor, is not feasible to enact, has not reached committee for discussion, and is not widely supported by either party.
Any idiot (and there are plenty of them in the legislative branch of our government) can introduce a bill. Fortunately, it takes many checks and balances to make it a law. I do not want to participate in circulating these wild hare bills as predictable fact, which causes the frenzy you saw during Y2K and is now causing the current gun and ammunition buying frenzy.
Now don't get me wrong… I think it is GREAT that people who never thought about getting a gun and a box of ammunition are going down to their local gun shop or sporting goods store trying to get stocked up.
And I think it is great if you are buying up as many guns and ammunition as you think you will need for the rest of your life.
(Yes, I still have a year's supply of now outdated MRE's and bottled water from Y2K.)
Unfortunately, America's fear of their own government has created a gun and ammunition buying frenzy that is exceeding the current ammunition manufacturing and distribution capabilities of the ammo suppliers, which prevents thousands of people each day from purchasing their FIRST gun and box of ammunition.
My prediction is that this shortage, due to the current buying frenzy, will soon pass and you will be able to find ammo on the shelves of your local gun shops and sporting goods stores, or order cases of ammo from your favorite Internet ammo supplier.
Hang in there.
If you want some confirmation from the mainstream media, watch this video:
[Dobbs Video]
And if you do not have a 30 State Concealed Weapons Permit, the world class training Front Sight provides, or a Springfield Armory XD Pistol, then take advantage of Front Sight's Greatest Course, Gun and CCW Permit Offer Ever. (Also known as the Millionaire Patriot Offer.)
Go to http://www.frontsight.com/free-gun.asp.
I will be posting a different article on this blog each Monday so I look forward to your visit every week.
If you have an interesting photo, story or tip about a relevant topic of interest to gun ownership, firearms training or Second Amendment issues, please feel free to send it to me at:
[email protected] or
[email protected]
Again, if you want to take advantage of the Greatest Course, Gun, and CCW Permit Offer in the firearms training industry see this link:
http://www.frontsight.com/free-gun.asp
See you next week.
Dr. Ignatius Piazza
Founder and Director
Front Sight Firearms Training Institute
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[84CJ]

Check your local flea markets.LOL Well it's not really funny but sadly enough it is true. I buy what I can when I can find it mostly at wal-mart because they have been consistant on prices. Just to support my lust for shooting. A day at the range is 500 to 1000 rounds. I am starting to not enjoy myself like I used to

I saw where some places are selling the same stuff as walmart at stupid prices. Check out some of the other post on this forum.

 

[Grayfox]

America's fear of their own government

I believe that one line pretty much covers it.

 

[redlevel]

Originally posted by roundgunner:
Where Has Our Ammo Gone?

A "good little bit" of it is in a couple of safes belonging to me.

I intend to keep adding to the stash until I run out of somewhere to put it or go broke, whichever comes first.

Call me part of the problem.

 

[Gun-runner]

Wars on 2 fronts have been eating up most of the production. Remember that we aren't the only ones fighting there. Military ammo foriegn and domestic is the number 1 priority and commercial 2nd.
I know 1st hand because I work in the brass and copper industry and we supply the ammo companies.

 

[Sara Noh]

while there is no ammo or reloading supplies to buy, wouldn't it be a good idea to join the NRA if you are not already a member. Current members should consider upgrading their memberships and/or making a contirbution to NRA/ILA. It would be money well spent to defend our 2nd Ammendmant rights instead of panic buying/hoarding thus possibly denying a new shooter the enjoyment of our sport. THINK ABOUT IT!

 

[rburg]

Hold on a minute here, guys. I think we're living under a few misconceptions. First, if anyone is going to the range and burning up 500 to 1000 rounds at a time, the ammo shortage has a pretty obvious cause. If we all did that, the ammo shortage would be much more severe. There's just not enough ammo in the country for all of us to do that.

Commercial ammo makers do from time to time get military contracts. But some production lines aren't suited for military production. They still run on the same schedule, maybe even running OT to boost production. An example would be most of the centerfire rifle production, and all of the rimfire. Even the oddball ammo is flying off the shelves these days.

Its good to have new shooters. Often the new ones spend more range time than those of us who've been at the game for a while. If the election of the current crop of idiots has had the effect of bringing on board this many new gun nuts, I'm all for it. If gun ownership jumps by 10% more of the total population, its a good thing. Some if not most will vote next cycle.

So I'm not believing much of what I see written as the causes and solutions to the problem. If ammo sales keep up at the current pace, there will be industries stepping in to cover it. But it will take time. And maybe even another price increase to get us there.

 

[Noah Zark]

IMO, the current ammo high price and lack of supply at the retailer and wholesale levels is a function of demand, certainly not raw material supply, pricing, or conspiracy.

Here's the raw material situation:

1 yr lead PRICE:

1 yr lead SUPPLY:

1 yr copper PRICE:

1 yr copper SUPPLY:

1 yr zinc PRICE:

1 yr zinc SUPPLY:

Source: kitcometals.com historical charts at:

http://www.kitcometals.com/cha...zinc_historical.html

Raw material stocks are at a one-year high. Raw material prices are at a one-year low. Heck, zinc is at $0.50 a pound and it hasnt been that low in over three years.

IMO, the objective base metals historic price and supply data don't support the high market pricing for ammo. IMO, what is driving ammo prices right now is SOLELY demand.

Geoff40 said it in the Reloading forum:

Originally posted by geoff40:
. . . As long as someone is dumb enough to pay these absurd prices, they won't stop gouging, why would they? It'll never happen because people are too stupid and impatient, but the best thing right now would be for everyone interested in ammo to stop buying any. Period.

Noah

 

[walnutred]

Originally posted by rburg:
Hold on a minute here, guys. I think we're living under a few misconceptions. First, if anyone is going to the range and burning up 500 to 1000 rounds at a time, the ammo shortage has a pretty obvious cause.

Hey, I've been burning up 500 rounds a range session for years. Of 22 LR that is. Actually it closer to 1000 rds a month. But the ranges around here were packed last year and I don't think this year will be any different. Now though they are not full because individuals are out shooting, I'm seeing an increase in whole families going tot he range. Rather than one or maybe two people sharing a lane it's now 3-5 people sharing a lane.

So if there is only a 30% increase in shooters that is going to have a noticeable impact on ammo availability. At to that some panic buying and supplies can get tight.

 

[Jack Flash]

Good idea to not buy when the prices are ridiculous.

Dick Burg made a good comment awhile ago (paraphrasing here):
Go to gun shows and look for all the NOS that people bring out of their basements to sell below current prices. Often they sell it for the price marked on the box which they paid ten years or so ago.

You could say the same thing about brass and bullets, sometimes even primers. Just keep your eyes open and jump on good deals, pass on the outrageously high priced stuff.

 

[redlevel]

Originally posted by Noah Zark:
IMO, the current ammo high price and lack of supply at the retailer and wholesale levels is a function of demand, certainly not raw material supply, pricing, or conspiracy.

Too much common sense there, though. It is much more fun to blame the e-vile ammo manufacturers (Oil Companies?) and retailers (gas stations?) than it is to recognize a supply and demand situation.

By definition, price gouging is impossible in a free market. If someone is charging more for a commodity than demand justifies, then someone else will offer that item for sale at a market defined price.

The thing to do is quit whining and pay the price, or wait until supply overtakes demand, prices drop to reflect that fact, then make your purchases. I am not sure ammo prices will ever go back to the levels of 18 months ago, just like I am not sure gasoline will ever be any cheaper than it is now. Hopefully, though, supply will catch up and we will be able to buy what we need rather than see the "back ordered" tag on our orders.

 

[Noah Zark]

Originally posted by redlevel:

Originally posted by Noah Zark:
IMO, the current ammo high price and lack of supply at the retailer and wholesale levels is a function of demand, certainly not raw material supply, pricing, or conspiracy.

Too much common sense there, though . . .

I've been accused of that before, many times. It's a blessing . . . and a curse.

Noah

 

[wbraswell]

I haven't seen the word that caused the oil prices to shoot up, used here. That word is speculation. Of course, in this case, the speculation is by the consumers instead of investors. I work in purchasing for my city, and I bought the ammo for our PD over the past 7-8 years. Somtimes we have waited up to 8 months for an order to come in. Usually, we were told it was because of the war. We just got in 12 cases of .223 that was ordered in January.

 

[redlevel]

You are correct about speculation. Many don't consider, however, that speculation is one of several factors in a free market. Free markets have a way of punishing speculators when they are wrong and rewarding them when they are correct.

In a free market, if there is indeed a speculative bubble, the market will eventually bust that bubble.

 

[GatorFarmer]

Not exactly a conspiracy, since it isn't hidden, but U.N. regulations regarding conventional small arms have apparently had an impact in the supply/sale of surplus ammo.

 

[rburg]

Anyone who reads here will know I have a distorted view of things. I grew up kind of poor. In that illspent youth, I never had enough of what I wanted (as opposed to what I needed.) Not having enough ammo caused me great pain and suffering, and I vowed it wouldn't happen again. Or at least if I had any control over the situation.

Of course that has some profound effects on how I conducted my life as an adult. I went out of my way to buy ammo and components. Notice all the bills were always paid, we always saved money, but I also tended to hoard ammo and components with some of my disposable income.

I've never bought concert tickets. The only music CDs I've ever bought have been in the last 6 months, with only a very few record albums. But I bought and stored ammo. And primers!!! Don't leave out powder, either. My gauge of enough or approaching enough is if you can keep in on shelves. Shelves break long before you reach that level.

But watching my son's approach the hobby over the last year has been entertaining. Youngest was never interested before now. Suddenly over the last year he went from zero guns to about a half dozen. And thankfully, his ammo needs run toward .223, something I have no use for. It means he can't raid the powder magazine for it.

But I did take mercy on him and give him a few hundred rounds of 9mm reloads.

One son was upset at the last gunshow. He couldn't find or buy small pistol primers, the few places he saw it had prices in the $31-33 range per thousand. If he really gets desperate, he can have a thousand. I just might have more than that....

But he can't have my Federals!

What I see from this is they're trying to follow in my footsteps, just a little. They suddenly realize ammo supplies aren't a given, or at least at reasonable prices. Starting at none and trying to build an adequate stockpile during a shortage won't work well.

But if you have a reputation for being a gun nut, beginners tend to find you with questions. And they all have the same problems.

Those going to the range to burn up ammo aren't doing well. During good times, it was affordable. Now its not. Even burning up a brick or bulk pack per trip has become unworkable. You may not be able to replace it. Go if you want. But be prepared to make a half dozen stops at WalMart to get more. That has become an uncertain event, too. We're at the same point as Atlanta was last summer with gasoline. No guarantee you can get more when you want or need it.

Those who complain but continue to burn ammo recklessly are just fun to watch. They are their own worst enemy, and they persist in looking for someone else to blame.

Will I ever run out of ammo? Maybe. I've considered the potential, and I've even thought about storing modest (for me) quantities at my offspring's homes. But they probably don't have the extra space.... A footlocker at each would probably do the trick if I packed well. The real problem being no one could lift or move it!

 

[Dave from Pa]

rburg,I have always been curious,what does this mean? "Its quantity, not quality
plus 5700 6000 6300 6600 7500 8400 "

 

[Kitgun]

The Zombies are buying & hoarding. They are really affaid of the living!

 

[rburg]

Originally posted by Dave from Pa:
,what does this mean?

We had a moderator in the past,

sprey. We had a friendly banter going on as to post count. Just the differential between his and mine.

 

[tom turner]

I swung by Wally World last night, to pick up a 100 pack of Federal .223, or 250 round yellow box of .45ACP if either was in stock.

One old guy was sitting there fuming already because no one was around to help him get a brick of .22LR. I almost went for help, then decided that the conversation and the man's attitude was "interesting."

So, we talked a little while and he dispatched his wife to go into the warehouse area to get some help.

Eventually, she got someone . . . and they ripped into the clerk a little, then asked for .22LR ammo. The clerk didn't bat an eye . . . and proclaimed, "Sorry Colonel, we're all out of .22 ammo can't seem to get any."

The old guy started whining some more. This was getting fun! I could see a few plastic boxes of CCI CB, AND a several boxes of .22LR Stingers but kept my mouth shut.

The old guy complained some more about Wal-Mart not knowing what they were doing, and didn't seem to know what a box of CCI stuff looked like! Then, he left, empty-handed.

I almost spoke up, but then decided that the "Colonel" deserved the same as he and his wife had given to the overworked clerk.


Then, I pleasantly asked the clerk get me a red box of the Federal .223

About that time the owner of a little "Army surplus shop that also sells odd-ball old ammo of various ages and types came in for some .380 for one of HIS customers!

"Sorry, we are out of .380," the clerk said. "Well, then how about some .390?" The clerk deadpanned back, "We don't have any of that either." I was totally enjoying this entire little episode, and the two obviously knew each other in a GOOD way!!!

I found it interesting that the little scrounger dealer was in Wally World hoping to snare a few boxes of ammo he needed too! It speaks volumes about the shortages we are all experiencing right now.

We both conversed and agreed that BHO is the worlds greatest gun and ammo seller of all time . . .

. . . and it went unsaid that it will be the azz-zoles of the world who will be left out of the success in procuring ammo should things truly hit the fan one day!

Relationships and treating people right go a LONG WAY in this world, and some people will never learn!

All in all, a VERY interesting and enjoyable time at Wally World!

Tom