Winchester Says Ammo Shortage To Last 2+ Years

[Alton]

I walked into Academy in Selma, TX this weekend and there was 308, 5.56, and 22's just sitting on the shelf. I have not seen that this year.

 

[HorizontalMike]

I think the quoted figure of 2+ years of ammo shortages is highly optimistic.

Orders are backlogged several years; demand is very high; production and distribution costs are high; and nothing in the current climate suggests anything will change in the next 2 (4? 6?) years. Sad but true.

Ah.... K-Rapp... looks like I actually "may" have to consider melting/smelting my own...
Truth be told, I could probably meter myself at ~50rds/week and be good for the next 12yr or so. So,...that ain't bad... but who knows...

The biggest thing is that with the powder/bullets/cases/primers that I still have on hand, I do NOT need any of that bottom-feeding ammo offerings.

I do know that at "some point" I need to take a deep breath and just use what I have... but we'll see...

So, all things considered, I am lucking to still be so well prepared.

 

[fiasconva]

Law of supply and demand: If you keep the supply low you can keep the prices up as long as possible.

 

[pantannojack]

Around two years ago I found 10k CCI large P primers for 200$ at an estate sale. I only took 5k because I did not like the price of powder near 30$/pound, and I still don't. I may see a cross bow in my future.

 

[Jon651]

I think the quoted figure of 2+ years of ammo shortages is highly optimistic.

Orders are backlogged several years; demand is very high; production and distribution costs are high; and nothing in the current climate suggests anything will change in the next 2 (4? 6?) years. Sad but true.

Orders may be backlogged, but I have to wonder just how many of those orders are duplicates (made so a vendor keeps his name "on the list" for the earliest possible delivery) and will end up being cancelled when the supply starts to catch up with demand. Or perhaps when backorders are filled how many will be cancelled because of the price increases.

I do see a glimmer of hope - the price of .380ACP is now down to below $1/round and I'm seeing it actually in stock, where at the beginning of the year it was averaging $2/round and almost impossible to find.

We will just have to wait and see...

 

[cmj8591]

All I know is what I see. The LGS's around me are swimming in ammo right now. The price is also starting to drop some. I was in one of the shops last week and 9mm was $35 a box. It was higher than I need to pay but lower than the $45 a box it was a couple of months ago. Buy the time I got home, there was an email from another LGS located close by the other one. They were advertising $33 a box. Neither shop had a limit on 9mm. That was a couple of weeks ago and I haven't been back to see what the stock is like now. The owner on the $45 shop said they were starting to get regular deliveries and the foot traffic had slowed down quite a bit. When I was there, there was only one other person browsing. A couple of months ago, the same shop made you take a number to get waited on to buy a gun. I don't agree with the 2 year assessment. I think it has reached saturation in both price and demand and like everything else we're having a hard time getting right now, the supply chain will catch up.

 

[smoothshooter]

The shooting sports are going to take the biggest hit they have ever taken because of the shortages.
I expect to see a lot of used medium to high quality O/U shotguns on the market over the next several years.
Same for all the other shooting disciplines.

 

[smoothshooter]

Law of supply and demand: If you keep the supply low you can keep the prices up as long as possible.

I do not think it is any kind of conspiracy. If the manufacturers were holding back on production, word would have leaked out from multiple sources ( production workers, for example ) by now.
The ammunition producers and distributors could be shut down at any given time by Executive Order, and a lot of people know it. So they are getting what they can while they can.

 

[smoothshooter]

Around two years ago I found 10k CCI large P primers for 200$ at an estate sale. I only took 5k because I did not like the price of powder near 30$/pound, and I still don't. I may see a cross bow in my future.

Now all I shoot are percussion revolvers and flintlock rifles and shotguns, as they will do nearly everything I need to do with a gun.
The modern ammo I have is too precious of a commodity to burn up in target practice or hunting.

 

[Smokester653]

Pure speculation in my opinion. When I think of shortages of an item I think of something that is rare or no longer made. I do not equate "runs" or "panic buying" as shortages. The reason is if I can go down to the LGS, Flea Market, Pawn Shop, Gun Show, Friend with a trunk full of 9mm or some of the ammo sites and buy just about anything at a heavy inflated price well to me there is no shortages. Granted it was tough for a bit to get a "bulk" amount but since this whole mess started I have had zero issues getting ammo for range time it may have been at a price I did not like but I could still get it. If we truly want ammo to go down quit paying the inflated prices.

 

[Racer X]

My question is now that there are, what, 25 million more gun owners, minus those who have died/quit shooting, isn't there now need for more capacity going forward? Shouldn't they be adding more production lines?