For whatever reason ,we seem to like to discuss the s.h.t.f. scenario occasionally.
Sometimes a SHTF seems appropriate though. Like today when we found out the job situation in the US is the worst it has been since 1945. And that same report said it was going to get "substantially worse in 2009 and perhaps 2010." How much unrest will we see in the US if we get 10%+ unemployment? (And that's official unemployment. The real rate is much higher. For instance, I'm not unemployed since I'm not currently looking for a job. But I was laid off after 9/11 in 2001 and never have found permanent full-time work since. Etc, etc.)
I personally prefer TEOTWAWKI even if it takes longer to type. Because "the end of the world as we know it" is what is coming. The Feds today released a report saying they don't actually know where the $350 billion they already spent from the TARP fund has actually gone. There's some great accounting. And yet the other half will be spent. And another trillion dollars beyond that to go to every which direction. As quickly as possible. Which guarantees that much of it will be wasted. Which will lead to demands for more. If fiscal irresponsibility got us into this mess, how come even more excessive fiscal irresponsibility is the cure? How does that work?
The yearly deficit will get larger and larger. The debt will double. Maybe more. We will circle around the edge of deflation while governments frantically throw vast amounts of money down the drain. At some point, some governments and some people are going to "lose faith" in the value of their paper assets. Especially paper money. And the hyperinflation will begin. I honestly think that some intelligent people at the top levels of government must have decided hyperinflation was the only valid way out of massive government debt. So that hyperinflation will then "rescue us" from all our trillions in debt because suddenly a trillion dollars won't be all that much money. But can you ride the tiger of hyperinflation without getting eaten?
The worst case hyperinflation scenarios have always assumed that it would be the US by itself. That trade deficits, large yearly shortfalls, massive problems with Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc, would bring down the house of cards. We would hyperinflate and then other countries would announce that they would no longer accept US Dollars as the Reserve currency. They would switch to Euros or Yen or something else. We would be dealt the final blow by the massive devaluation of the USD. We would have a tenfold reduction in our national standard of living.
But it is hard to see how that will happen in this current situation. The whole world is having problems. The Euro is staggering and there social unrest in many parts of Europe. The Canadian Dollar might attract some hope but will that country of less than one tenth the population of the US really be able to avoid whatever economic disaster happens to us? Japan and the Yen.... I don't think so. China and Russia have different problems but it is far from certain whether they will emerge stronger or weaker in the future.
The looks far more like a global depression to me. One that will bring massive political and social instability. It was the instability and discontent around the world during the Great Depression which led to the emergence of the political parties which led the world into World War II. If Germany and Japan had been booming economically in the 1930's, they wouldn't have ever turned to the "man on the white horse" solutions. Russian and Putin are trending down that path already and the crisis is still young.
So yeah, in this current climate, maybe thinking about what guns you would use to defend yourself during a societal collapse may actually make some rational sense! Of course you should be thinking about food and water first. (What would your family eat if you couldn't go to the grocery store again? For a month? Longer? What about water? Do you have filters on hand right now so that you could drink from ponds or streams?) Then guns and ammo. Then all the sexy "nice to have" stuff. Like gold and silver and an escape plan and destination and emergency communications gear and EMP shielding, etc, etc, etc.
You drove a car today while having insurance, didn't you? Did you have insurance because you really thought you were going to have an accident today? It just seemed like the prudent thing to do. Your preparations now for serious problems should be viewed in the same way. What if......?? The Mormons are now stockpiling two years worth of food for each family. Maybe that's what was meant by "the meek shall inherit the Earth?"
Sorry this got so long. Watch two or three hours of CNBC every day and you start to wonder where we are going to end up!
Gregg
