Based on recent world events and U.S. government ineptitude, it looks like U.S military caliber loaded ammo is soon going to be in very short supply for commercial sales for the foreseeable future, and whatever is a available to buy will be much more expensive.I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it. The ammo companies that make military calibers will have to reallocate resources in manpower and production priorities to meet the demand. Same for reloading components, particularly primers and possibly brass.
Better be stocking up now if you haven’t already.

Not to be a smart butt, but in all seriousness I think warning posts like this work against us to get people stirred up and accelerate the hoarding that otherwise may not give it much thought.

Many new shooters have not seen a drought before and should heed the warning. Remember when 22 was unobtainable for around 2 years unless you had time to hit the Walmarts and get one of the 4 boxes that came in that week? A warning is what some need to act now. Not every one was able to stock up with all they could ever shoot back in 1970 at 3 cents a round.

In the early part of the 21st century I bought 550 rd Federal "WallyBoxes" for $8.97. My wife asked: "Why do you buy 4 boxes every time we come to this store?" Replaced that at $.03/rd. Shooting the end of those now. Bought quite a few this year at $.056/rd. .22lr is a bargain all the way to $.11 rd, which it will be heading toward, shortly. Joe

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Behavior Creates Destiny

With the trajectory things are taking in the Middle East, I believe that reduced ammunition and components availability is likely. But if so, it will not personally affect me much.

I never cease to be amazed.

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No baby we aint

I realize that is a risk.

I bought what I think is a lifetime supply of primers and powder when it looked like there would be a President Dukakis. Thankfully that never happened but I still have a lot left that was purchased in 1988.

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S&WHF #946
S&WCA #3824

Omg panic! Israel is going to use up all of our ammo!! Please… JamesXP hit the nail on the head. A bunch of people start posting threads like these on a bunch of different forums, then a bunch of gun folks who shoot one mag out of their AR a year runs out and buys a case of green tip (which their indoor range restricts using anyways) then prices jump up a $100 a case.

Ammo is still available, if you didn’t buy any when prices were decent the last 12 months, or when Trump was president, oh well.

SVT28

I was told today that Lake City factory managed by Winchester is stopping civilian sales of military type ammo. I think they have to dedicate manufacture of this ammo for the current demands by the two wars, Israel and Ukraine

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Kevin in Oregon

Well not to be a SA...I kinda felt the ame way back a few years. Then a good friend came to me and said he needed10 boxes of 9mm ammo. I had bought 9mm at Cabela's a few months previousl for about 6.50 a box...223 for 2.44 a box. I bought all I could at the time and I hardly even used 9mm. I was not oing to sell him any and even offered him a box free. No he insisted he NEEDED 10 boxes and offered me 40 dollars a box. Did I feel bad when I sold him 10 boxes? No, not really, He even told me his shortage was his own fault. I still gave him a free box of the 25 round boxes of good SD ammo. He still has 15 rounds of it left. I told him to buy 9mm 2 weeks ago when the local farm store had Blazer Brass 9s for 10.99. He bought 25 boxes. I didn't need any and bought a "few" myself. 22s were 19.90 per brick of 500. He bought 10 bricks. I only got the last hidden brick. Don't be the one catching up too late. And I truly hope we don't have the run on everything we had during Covid

I have also read from multiple sources that the LCAAP (run by Winchester) has been ordered to cancel all civilian contracts. They produce 30% of all civilian 5.56 ammunition. I have been hearing/reading this as of about two weeks ago. Not sure when the cutoff date was/is but it seems to be more of a fact now than a rumor.

I stocked up before the pandemic. Have at least 10-12 K of 9mm and 7.62X39 and 5-6 K of 5.56. So at my age and the limited amount of shooting I do now I probably need to sell instead of buying, but I just like to have it sitting around

"Most" people aren't like that.

I've been telling folks in my area for the last year to buy a box a week/month, whatever they can afford.

I've had three calls in the last week asking if I have any "extra" ammo.

I remind them that until I have 7.3 Billion cases of each caliber, I'll not have "extra".
I have enough for 4 years of my wife and I shooting twice a month at the range and a once a month competition.

Life is full of choices. Folks making bad ones, suffer.

This is JMHO and that is all. I remember 2008. My daughters wanted to shoot their little Ruger rifles. It was all I could do to get enough ammo to let them shoot. Never had previously had problems buying plain Jane .22 LR, much less .38 Special, .45 ACP and certainly not 9mm. FMJ rifle ammo went crazy. I remember. So ... over the years I've made it a practice to buy ammo when it was affordable. Right now, if you can find affordable 9mm, .22 LR ... buy it. It doesn't eat. It doesn't rot. Buy it. In the recent go round of short supply and high prices, I had church members who were in the same boat as I was in back in 2008. I gave them ammo. I gave ammo to men I saw at the range w/ their children/grandchildren. Hurts to see someone having to basically ration ammo to a child. Stinks. The smile on that child's face ... and the response of the parent is worth the price paid. My grandchildren live up north and have no opportunities to go shooting. When they get down here to Ga., they have opportunities! We use a Bugassault on the back porch. Salt is cheap. Fun to shoot bugs, leaves, etc. Later, when they are old enough ... there are two Red Ryder's waiting ... and two 10-22's. So ... I'm keeping an eye out for salt ... and BB's ... and .22 LR!!! And, for my son-in-law ... I'm also watching for .38 Specials and 9mm. Sincerely. bruce.

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<><

what people like SVT28 don't understand is we aren't affecting the prices. The Biden admins order to Winchester to make no more commercial sales from ammo produced at LC cuts 30% of US produced blow away ammo off the market...That affects not only availability but the other companies producing ammo naturally raise prices...and possibly production if they are able Hunting ammo for many calibers are at low supplies equaling higher prices.

Your post makes my case. Tell me more how I don’t understand supply and demand. Yes government cuts and ill management reduces supply, however supply has been enormous for quite some time now. Couple that with the every ill prepared or dramatic “panic panic” forum thread I’ve seen in the past two weeks, has the common man and woman going out and buying 223/556. So, OUR higher demand, with speculative supply dwindling, is driving prices up. Ammo is still available to purchase, it’s just a little more expensive.

If supply is short and prices are high, not shooting as much is actually a thing. (Dons flame suit and runs for bunker)

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Release the Kraken

Remember folks, "ammo hoarder" is a term that will be used for those who prepared by those who didn't.

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- Change it back -

YES- these posts tend to snowball the perceived shortage.

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Some Might Say.

I really don't think you got it. Supply hasn't been enourmous...Not asit used to be. Supplies WERE enourmous before Covid. on most everything.. But prices had still risen esp on certain itemsStandard hunting ammo wasabout 13-16 dollars a box. Primers had risen from 15 to over 30 dollars prior to the pandemic. but were available. calibers such as 9s 223s 7.62 x39 all cheap and enourmous quantities. In the last couple of years blow away ammo was catching up somewhat to pre pandemic levels...just somewhat prices have been coming down ...but the part of the ammo crisis that hasn't been solved/corrected is the standard everyday ammo supply38s 357s 30-06 270.and of course the older harder to find calibers. They are still short...ergo...the price...much higher. Powder/primer prices still high as well as supply...and don't forget The old Remington, Winchester, Federal suuply chain of old...is truly gone. We have a lot of small makers of ammo these days boutique makers with ultra high prices. The days of yore are extinct. . We've had these corrections before in the past but the basic infrastructure was truly in place. It no longer is. Winchester Ammo is the only non conglomerate ammo maker left(kinda/sorta) in the US these days and with mega companies like now ammo is a small part of their business...and now we come to this administration, They are trying to find anyway possible to disarm not only the US...but the world. The powers that be truly do NOT like us...and the leftists must destroy the US first and foremost. Dim picture I know...and I am seriously not a conspiracy theorist. I am... a realist....looking at a very possible future...I hope I am very wrong

Not sure what news is reliable concerning Israel, when IMI is selling their ammunition over here.

Care to guess how many weeks/months ago you think the IMI you see on your local shelves was imported, and how long it took to filter through the supply chain?

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Release the Kraken

Supplies were enormous before COVID, both in polymer pistols and ammo, especially 9mm. In business terms I suspect there was a degree of over-supply due to the ammo makers misjudging the result of the 2106 election.

I don't think the current prices are an indication of tight supply. They are the result of a spike in the costs of everything, costs that haven't gone back down. I know this every time I approach a diesel pump to fill up. The raw materials are mined and transported using diesel. The finished product is moved on trains and finally to the store in a truck, and those things run on (drumroll, please) diesel.

Every mouthful of food you eat was probably moved by something running on diesel. It's the same for everyone, so they are all asking for more money. That has led to employers' costs going up leading to an inflationary spiral that we are only now showing signs of breaking.

Picking a number, I suspect $0.23/round for FMJ 9mm may be the new floor if the Isreal situation is resolved quickly. Otherwise, the current $0.24/round will become the new normal (at best) or become the "good old days" in a thread six months to a year in the future.

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Release the Kraken

Im seeing the sites I visit having less 223/556 already, and prices rose around 100 per thousand.

Another thing we have to contend with at this time in the catchup game is with the companies left making ammo is the supply chain as stated above turns out to be longer and more expensive because of the perceived need to dump our main supply of energy...oil/gas. They want to control our home appliances for goodness sake. With the government trying to restrict all types of energy prices go higher on everything. . Then we have an unprecedented amount of people vying for the roughly same amount or less supply of shooting products...esp after the new kids on the block buying their new firearms and not being able to shoot because of very short supplies...we are competing with more buyers. What have the ammo makers been producing?? mostly the stuff people have the most "need" for...so of course those calibers got the most attention...from both sides buyers and sellers...about 10 million new buyers that is...with less suppliers and supplies

The sky is falling. A piece of it hit me yesterday.

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That's just somebody talkin.

Watch this video:

Ammo Employee Comes Forward: Companies Withholding Stockpiles Purposely?!? - YouTube

Careful, that vid is contraband to the "Tinfoil Hat Police." Joe

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Behavior Creates Destiny

Seems like the supply of over-priced primers is beginning to dry up at my local shop. Ammo might be next.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

Since we have adopted "Soviet" business model, shortages are to be expected. Big difference is that capitalists tend to overproduce short items, leading to temporary glut. If you paid attention to the last 20 years there have been at least 4 distinct "panics." Folks run out and buy the exact item (toilet paper before a hurricane) that is already short causing said panics. Buy when you don't need it. $.02 Joe

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Behavior Creates Destiny

Don't believe every stupid thing you hear third hand from some assembly line employee. If you think ammo manufacturers are just sitting on stockpiles of ammo, you don't understand how businesses work.

Personally I'm seeing some shortages, 5.56/223 12 and 20 gage buck, some SD pistol stuff....

I was in Sportsman’s Warehouse today and the counter guy said that they had so many primers in stock that you could buy 1k per visit .
1k Federal SPP were $60.44 out the door . Remington was 3 bucks less .
Also no shortage of loaded ammo . The shelves were jammed packed.
Winchester 5.56 M193 was 57 cents a round and it was stacked up in several places . Not sure if that’s a good price on the 5.56 because I haven’t bought any in 15-20 years .

My local LGS...a rather small place has quite a few primers for sale ...both pistol and rifle, large and small . No limit on the amount purchased and at competitive prices .
I think I'll pay them another visit this weekend !

At the present time there is a good supply of ammunition available on line at reasonable prices and with many vendors offering free shipping as well.
Now would be a good time to stock up if you haven't already.

If there is a shortage, how come I just got two emails from vendors trumpeting how much ammo they have? One even had 9mm Blazer Brass 115gr FMJ at 23 cents/round, unfortunately plus shipping.

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Release the Kraken

Here is another video with a counter opinion to that:

Debunking Ammo Shortage Myths: An Insider's Take on the Crisis - YouTube

Many people here load their own ammo and/or care about handgun, especially revolver ammo. This shortage is about rifle ammo and in special 5.56/.308. Like everything posted on the Internet, smart people know that all should be taken with a grain of salt. As for people who post "it's stupid to believe such things" here, you are also asking on the Internet to be believed and realistically at least the way it looks to people who do not know you, you have even less credibility than these video authors. Cheers everyone

Ammo availability in most calibers seems to be improving - based on the emails I'm receiving from suppliers/sellers. Availability of most reloading components seems to be improving too.
The one reloading component that seems to continue to be unobtainium is Large Rifle Primers in any flavor.
Since there are ongoing major conflicts in the middle east and Ukraine, and the primary arms of those militaries are the AK variants chambered for 7.62 x 39 ammo (which requires large rifle primers) I have to think that the ongoing shortage of LRPs is due to the vast amounts of ammo that are being expended in those conflicts.
But I could be wrong - it wouldn't be the first time...

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Send lawyers, guns & money...

I'm part of the shortage problem. At one time if I was going shooting I'd stop on the way to the range and pick up a couple boxes of ammo or stop on the way home to replace what I'd fired. Now rather than buy a box or brick of ammo at a time, I go online and buy a case. Brick and mortar stores I tend to treat the same if they are running a sale, rather than pick up a box or two I'll get a case. Doesn't take many people like me and we have shortages.

I asked a gun store employee if they held back a certain amount of ammo for better prices in the future. His reply was we aren't in the ammo storage business. You have us confused with the military.

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That's just somebody talkin.

Today I cruised down to Cabelas.
Nothing special, just a visit.
I looked at the Handguns, no changes there.
Turned and looked at the ammo.
Lately I’ve bought usually 200 rounds of the House 9mm Ball on just about every visit. Usually lately they’ve had plenty. Can’t find any.
A nice Young Guy is stocking ammo.
So I ask him. No Joy, Cowboy. We ain’t got none of that.
What do you have? A small amount of high dollar 9mm.
We sold out of ball a few days ago and haven’t gotten any since.
Nice guy, his name was - Hunter!
So after I got home I went online and ordered 500 rounds of 9mm from Cabela’s . They claim they have it???
Time will tell.

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NRA LIFE MEMBER

I haven’t noticed any shortage in southeast Oklahoma. And for that matter I went in an Academy near Nashville, TN today and they had no shortage. The Bass Pro Shops in Nashville was pretty well stocked and has lots of primers too.

I was getting remanufactured. 223 online for around 33 cents each and overnight the price jumped up to 50 cents each!
Fortunately I think I have enough of that now and I also have a .22LR conversion unit for that rifle so I bought more of that while it's still reasonably priced.
I probably have enough to last me until I turn 135 so I'm comfortable.

Certainly it has occurred to at least a few that this thread is like watching "The View"; lots of rumors and baseless opinions, with YouTube thrown in to bring the credibility level even lower. Many similar threads in the last few years.

I just added to the potential of a shortage by ordering a case of American Eagle 147 grain FMJ 9x19mm. This is my preferred practice load as it pairs well with my preferred carry load, the Federal 147 grain HST. I was able to save $6.36 per 50 by ordering versus buying locally.

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VCDL, GOA, NRA

Glitches in the supply chain are the norm post COVID. It all seems to hinge around the shortage of truck drivers. My local Smith's grocery (Kroger to many) has times when it is short of stuff (truck didn't make it or is running late) and others when there is a glut, with non-perishable stuff on pallets on the shop floor waiting for the shelves to empty a bit.

Major thread drift alert! My local Albertson's ran into the latter issue with soda last week. Buy four 12-packs for $13.88, mix and match. Weird thing was you had to buy four to get the deal, but the limit was four per transaction. Guess they didn't want the food truck folks raiding the place. It's as cheap as I'd seen soda in more than a year. I made multiple visits and am stocked up for a while.

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Release the Kraken

I hit the Kissimmee Academy on the way home earlier. They had at least 20 cases of Winchester M855 "green tip" on the shelf, take all you want $15/20. I bought 10 boxes of Hornady 55 gr for an OTD of $140(12.99/20+tax), which is less than Target Sports with the 8% discount. The gun/ammo dept was packed unlike the other 95% of the store. Nobody have a job anymore? Joe

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Behavior Creates Destiny

Do they have Large Rifle Primers?
That is the ONE reloading component I have been unable to find the last couple of years....
Yeah, I agree with your point - until it comes to LRPs.
They are absolutely UNOBTANIUM. Not a baseless opinion, but an actual FACT.
Show me I'm wrong. Where can I buy them? Even at the ridiculous price of $100 a brick? As far as I have been able to find they are simply not available for sale ANYWHERE at any price.
A search for "large rifle primers" turns up NO results on GunBroker.
PLEASE prove me wrong - I'd love to find someone with some for sale...

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Send lawyers, guns & money...