What types of SHTF scenarios are people basing plans on?

Winters do get that bad up here. The snow pulls down power lines. We hook the pellet stove up to the generator and also have two propane fireplaces that don't rely on power.

Although I used to melt snow on the woodstove for the toilets, at this house I have three bathtubs I fill with water prior to a big storm. I also have a huge cache of nonperishables, cases of toilet paper, and a gas grill and camp stove to cook on.
 
Given a choice

I think staying put is the most logical choice. More supplies can be stockpiled and more preparations can be done in advance. However, most of us probably have loved ones that don't live in the same household. My immediate family live almost a 1000 miles away. The prospect of such a journey under degenerate conditions is daunting to say the least. The most important thing is to have a plan and all involved must be aware of it. Without that I could be going toward my sisters while they were trying to reach me and everybody looses.

First off, are you ready to survive the loss of all services for 30 days?
Keep track of all the food, household supplies, fuel, etc. that you buy in a month and you will have a starting point. (Don't rely on frozen food.)
Do you have alternate source(s) of heat?
You can survive a week or more without food but no so without water so a supply/source of potable water is high priority.
Do you always have at least 30 days supply of critical medications?
Are you prepared to defend your location against likely threats?
One of the most distressing losses would be communications. We are acustomed to being able to get news and information, call friends and family. Don't overlook a carefully selected reference library.

Once you have what it takes to survive a month on your own, you will be better prepared than 99.9% of the general population and all of the civilian government. If you want to go further, you can ramp it up but there are practical limits. Once you get beyond 30 days you are getting into scenarios involving subsistance farming and the like.

This is one of those questions where there is always something else to study and everybody has stongly held opinions.
 
Some really excellent posts so far with terrific information and perspective. Thanks for the great links. I didn't have them in my list of resources.

I'm really glad I began this thread.

For my situation, the immediate family is three adults and two kids under 6. One of the kids has Down Syndrome, but is in good shape physically. One of the adults has cardiac issues.

There are only a couple of neighbors who are potentials for any sort of alliance. Many don't have firearms and aren't currently storing food and related supplies.

My very strong bias is to stay put as others have suggested, with a provision planned for taking to the road only if REALLY necessary.

I think taking to the road in lots of situations will be a very poor choice because of traffic bottlenecks, fuel inavailability, and uncertainty over where is safe. We haven't planned specific destinations to go to yet, but are thinking about alternatives based on various scenarios.

I think the most likely scenarios are...
- Weather related (basically crippling snow)
- Major utility outage (long term disruption of the grid)
- Terrorist event (nuclear/biological/chemical)
- Major and long lasting economic upheaval (dollar devaluation, inflation sufficient to make critical commodities scarce, etc.)

I think that where I live, the plan for weather is up to a week or so. A catastrophic utility outage, terror event, or economic collapse could cause a disruption of months to years (change to the culture).

We have a well and a septic system and depend very heavily on electricity. A whole house generator is on the list for almost immediate purchase. A loss of electricity currently, costs us access to the well. We have a good bottled water supply but losing the well, costs us the ability to flush toilets (once the water in the tubs goes).

My planning will cover various durations and levels of lifestyle adjustments.

Concerns over the generator will be...
1) Protecting it from theft/damage
2) Maintaining fuel sources (either propane or diesel)
3) Tipping off strangers to how well equipped we are

We're also planning for backup heat sources through winter (fireplace, portable heaters and stoves, etc.).

A big concern is access to medications. It's just not possible to keep enough on hand to fit the longer term situations.

I don't currently reload ammo, but believe I may have to have basic capability for at least one or two calibers. The problem will remain...what happens when whatever level of components run out.

The greatest risk is in having to go mobile for a long duration event. Where to? How can you possibly bring enough of what you'll need?

I do think it's very likely that we'll have to hunker down at home for a fairly long duration in the next two to three years, so that's driving my urgency.
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I'm out there in the sticks near where the hoards of urban zombie refugees would possibly flee.

We have a "Plan D".
 
I always plan for the worse case SHTF scenario....

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Does anyone have a really large propane tank on their property that is buried below ground?


This is an option I'd like to consider, if legal/doable with propane, since we cook, dry clothes, and would power our whole-house generator with propane.
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I plan to stay put. I live out in the sticks, and on a piece of property that won't flood. Terrorists rarely attack rural areas. I see few scenerios where I'd need to leave. Of those, the most probable would be tornado damage, which would be local in nature, and would present little challenge in relocating. We are well equipped to stay home for an extended peroid of time.
 
We plan for the impending doom every year. I have been through all the big Hurricanes and with my job have gone to the hardest hit areas.

We are prepared the best we can every year but the problem with Florida especially down towards the end is where do you go?. The only way out is I-75 and that is a joke. East coast, west coast? saw that with Andrew.

If you are going to leave you need to a week early or forget it

Every year the same thing, crazed people swarm Wal Mart and other stores for batteries, water, bread, canned food, propane. That is what worries me the most. Panicked people. I can deal with the elements better than crazed. panicked mobs who do not have a clue what they are doing.
Then the gas stations run out cause everyone "tops off" with 1 or 2 gals every day. Like it's gonna make a difference.

Duhhh !!you would think you have those all already.:eek:

I get gas for the generator, board the windows and wait. If the issue mandatory evacuation all that means is you are stuck in your car in a massive traffic jam.

Thank God we did not have anything this year.
 
I dont belive we will be invaded as in red dawn. What I can see is a lot more magnified of what we already have. It`s political. This nation going totaly broke due to the stymilas, the new stupid health plan, green restrictions etc. The majority of jobs lost because people wont have money for the goods or services. Also people will be taxed so bad there wont be any desire to work. The many on professional welfare will turn to stealing and cannableism when there is no more to dole out.
There will be a huge revolt with the military protecting the administration, but eventualy that will come to a end with young turks takeing over and with no supplys or support. Everybody will be fighting everybody else. The only order will be by large armed gangs in territorial fights. Many will be criminal based, many others just normal once honest mainstream citizens banning together to survive. Another area most people dont think of is many religious groups will band together with religious zealots in control. I am talking about for example the poligamist group the FLDS, groups like Korish had at waco,
and many of their own religion will band together, and rightiously at that!
Christian rednecks will survive the best. It will be open season on the drug culture and thiefs. Illegal gang types wont fare well either.
Here is the BIGGEST glitch. Personnal survival will depend a lot on gas! Most of us have various 4 WD trucks, jeeps, dirt bikes and ATVs in our dream senerios. They will only be good to take cover behind when your gas is gone!
I belive everyone should have a good gitaway vehicle. The trick would be to have several hideouts scoped. It wouldnt be wise to have a drum of gas buried UNTIL things heat up. Gas go`s bad and the senerio might be a few years off. But haveing that shed or cave in the outback semi ready with a few tools, spare parts etc buried in the surrounding area wouldnt be a bad idea.
Dual sport and dirt bikes are good, but you cant carry much and you must be in good shape to ride them.
I have big respect for Quads or ATVs. Good ones will go anywhere and carry a lot of supplys and can be used to plow, pull a small trailer and you can get various garden tools to pull. Still, you need gas! The trick is to set up a string of caches well hidden with small drums of gas. Also spare tires and parts. I dont need to mention guns and ammo to this crowd.
People are different. Some of us do well as loners, some need others. Know what you are and plan accordinly. In truth most of us have people we have to take care of, like our family or aged parents.
One thing sure. If the lord doesnt come first, the strong and smart will survive, and the weak and unlearned will have it tough.
 
Titan said:
Does anyone have a really large propane tank on their property that is buried below ground?


This is an option I'd like to consider, if legal/doable with propane, since we cook, dry clothes, and would power our whole-house generator with propane.
.
Click to expand...

I do, Titan.

Entire 'hood of seven homes is served by an underground, central tank. Never a problem. Suspect it's rarely refilled b/c I have never seen a truck so doing. No idea just how big, though.

Be safe.
 
Back in the 70s, I got to where I was reading all the SHTF stuff. I really got into Bob Milek's columns and some of the other writers. Then one day, I just said, oh phooey. I've got plenty of guns, and plenty of ammo and I keep some jugs of water around. To heck with the rest of it. I live in small town USA. I don't envision running anywhere. I've been through ice storms where there wasn't any power for a week. Just go buy you a S-load of MREs, learn to build a fire, and a still. Life is too short to dwell in paranoia.
 
feralmerril said:
The trick is to set up a string of caches well hidden with small drums of gas.
Click to expand...

:) We used to ride dirt bikes down in the mountains. It wasn't at all unusual for us to plan an overnighter. Guys with their bikes and a sleeping bag, maybe a small cooler, and an extra gas can. It was a blast (30 years ago.) But the second one I went on, I got real smart. I was the last one into camp, about a half hour later (and we all left about the same time, I'd guess I left earlier even.) We'd planned a long loop that would take maybe 10 riding hours each day. Our base camp had one of our groups elderly father babysitting.

We went to sleep Friday night with a big day planned. We rode like mad men but got to our overnight camp before dark. We even had a shower (a waterfall.) As everyone was settling in, some of us went looking for fire wood. The other guys were bringing back branches and small trees. I brought back a nice bundle of cut and split logs, and I did it in just a few minutes. Everyone looked confused. Then they were more confused when I found and brought back a cheapo styrofoam cooler, full of my favorite beer. :) :) And now you know why I was late the evening before getting into camp. I made a stash. OK, so almost all the ice was melted... :) The next morning everyone was trying to share gasoline from the one or two gallon cans. They all noticed I didn't even bother carrying one. But somehow I managed to come up with a full 2 gallon can, and topped off my tank. Then I shared what was left with the others.

OK, I did cheat. Big deal. Having hidden stores of things became a habit with our group. One ride one of my buddies came out of the woods with a bottle of Jim Beam! I know for a fact he didn't hide it there before the trip...it was the trip a month earlier! :) :) Ya gotta plan ahead. For a while we had stuff hidden all over one mountain. We probably never managed to recover it all. It got to be a game. We'd stop for a rest at a shady spot, and one of us would wander away for 10 minutes. We didn't know if it was the call of nature, but more frequently it was locating a hidden store of goodies.
 
My first problem was water. I have a dug well with an electric pump. As a last resort, I could get water with a bucket and a rope, but I wanted less disruption of lifestyle. I did not want a generator because of the noise and because it would only run as long as I didn't run out of fuel for it. So I decided on solar-charged batteries. I have all the equipment now including a submersible pump that will run on AC or DC, but I have not yet mounted the solar panels. The capacity will be large enough to run some other loads, but of course not enough to solve the second problem, which is heat. I have electric heat with no backup other than portable kerosene heaters which are useless once the kerosene is gone. I have a wood stove in my garage and want eventually to put one in my house. I have enough trees to provide all the wood I could ever cut and split. I like solutions which are sustainable, and not limited to the amount of fuel or water I could practically store.
Whatever the emergency, I don't plan to leave my property, so if it comes to that I'll be pretty much unprepared.
 
A supply of gasoline sufficient to last for years will be a very large problem. Gas deteriorates and becomes unusable within a couple of years, although there are additives that can extend its life for a year or so. Available stockpiles must be rotated, using oldest first. Diesel, on the other hand, will last up to about 8 years, and can be supplemented with filtered vegetable oil. Also, the supply of diesel fuel will be larger, as most folks don't use it. Those that have diesel-powered vehicles will be in luck.

At any rate, mobility, power, food and self-protection will be the keys. Unfortunately, deciding WHAT the emergency will be in advance is next to impossible, except for one I'm predicting right now. The country is going bankrupt with out-of-control federal spending, and an economic collapse is highly probable unless something is done at the ballot box in 2010 and 2012.

The power grid is easily disrupted by weather or terrorist action. Those of you who live in the colder climes in the winter will be in big trouble for heat. For those of us who live in a warmer environment, it may be as simple as putting on a jacket and/or an extra blanket at night.

Living in a remote rural area with trees, a water supply and game in a mild climate would be ideal for about any scenario, including CBR warfare where the big cities are the most likely to be hit.

And you will find that you can't go it alone. A good-size group of people is much better able to cope and defend than one or two people. A group can have specialties, such as medical, dental, logistical, an armorer, hunting, power, perimeter defense, etc. Each member of a group should be able to contribute a specialty and be cross-trained in other specialties, a la Special Forces personnel. That's what survival will be all about.

As to any other scenario besides monetary collapse,

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I didn't know who James Rawles was 3 years ago when I was given his novel based on the future collapse of the power grid and currency. This last weekend at the gun show, I heard his name not less than 5 times as folks were talking about stocking up on stuff. There is a lot of concern out there that our dollar will be near worthless in a matter of years and that an investment in 'stuff' is the correct response. One old man who was buying silver coins told me he was buying as much silver (coins, bars, etc.) as he could get his hands on. Interesting times. He who gambles correctly should be set.
Ed
 
Shtf????

I've been ready, all my life.
I don't know about natural disasters, but human kind, will be no problem.
I will stay and protect my property and family, at all cost.
Red Dawn? Bring it on.
Oboma? Bring him on.
Enemy troops? Come on over.
I'm old, cranky and POed, most of the time, anyway.
No smiles here, just me, waiting.
My flag, flies, every day. My country is not, up for grabs.
 
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