Ex Cop, now cop killer on loose in L.A. Careful.

[cmort666]

Moriarty never killed anyone. Moriarty was a fictional character. This clown obviously had some general idea of how he was going to get revenge.

Which of course puts him head and shoulders above the average meth head sticking up a 7-11.

The problem comes from exaggerating that into some sort of criminal "genius".

Most of the criminals I've known were criminals precisely because they were lazy and not amenable to rational thought, cause and effect relationships in particular.

When the police themselves become a target, panic and hysteria tend to set in. I saw it back in the '60s and '70s in Chicago. If the perpetrator displays greater capacity for harm than the average criminal, that only intensifies.

 

[MaximumLawman]

"Misdemeanor" attempted homicide with grievous bodily harm.

Certainly a novel concept.

Is "attempted homicide with grievous bodily harm" an actual element of a crime in your universe or did you just make it up?

 

[cmort666]

Is "attempted homicide with grievous bodily harm" an actual element of a crime in your universe or did you just make it up?

The police in this incident:

• used deadly force without properly identifying their target.
• acted in a way contrary to any reasonable behavior.
• caused grievous bodily harm to the victims.

Whatever trying to justify these shootings accomplishes, I suspect that it's 180 degrees what those doing it want. It displays a contempt for innocent life.

The justifications for Dorner and the cops who shot the women (and the cops who tried to shoot the man) are intellectually and morally indistinguishable. They're attempts to excuse violent criminal behavior to further an ideological agenda.

 

[PA Reb]

I thought this statement, made by law enforcement on the scene, was about the most accurate I've heard to date; "Some law enforcement officials said he appeared to be everywhere and nowhere, and speculated that he was trying to spread out their resources." He's probably nowhere near the mountain ranges they are searching.

 

[mjr]

The answers are likely not going to be very satisfying, so there will be a tendency to reject the plain truth in favor of a more dramatic (and therefore satisfying) narrative.

Ain't that always the way? Occam's razor needs continual stropping.

 

[cmort666]

I thought this statement, made by law enforcement on the scene, was about the most accurate I've heard to date; "Some law enforcement officials said he appeared to be everywhere and nowhere, and speculated that he was trying to spread out their resources." He's probably nowhere near the mountain ranges they are searching.

If he actually HAS seriously planned this out, he's probably got a deception plan. Throwing out a bunch of diversions and red herrings works to his advantage.

Remember, they thought there was just ONE "Beltway sniper". It's entirely possible that a confederate drove that truck into the highlands to divert attention away from Dorner and what he's really planning to do. If they're JUST looking for Dorner, that person could just walk or drive away without a second's scrutiny.

The hysteria and lack of judgment displayed in the shooting of the innocent citizens only works to Dorner's advantage. It diminishes the public's inclination to assist the police, and in certain circles, creates sympathy for him.

 

[bitstream]

Lew, I like your analysis, but...

How do you reconcile him checking into the Navy Inn with his own ID after killing the first two people and before the boat incident? It's a calm and confident move right before what seems like a fright/flight move (the boat). It just seems out of place. I guess it might be that he panicked when his name was connected? But then, after what seems like a panic move to steal the boat, he goes to the vicinity of one of his listed targets and engages a police car and then ambushes another that he could have avoided. Those dual acts are not the acts of a panicked, fright/flight individual, but rather cold, confident, and determined. Then, he shows up in Big Bear which, again, seems like it's back fright/flight.

He said in his manifesto that any attempts to game him wouldn't work, so maybe that's what we are seeing.

Also, he's had potentially five years to plan this out, so he might possibly have already figured out this whole sequence. The truck breaking down seems to be unplanned, but as I said earlier, he was headed someplace, so if it was close, then perhaps he is back on plan? Or, he's dead in the snow someplace?

The problem is that his actions jump back and forth between planned and seemingly panicked.

 

[Delos]

A Hollywood ending?

A reward has been offered.

Charlie Sheen wants him to call him.

With a reward out I want Dorner to call me!

Lets review:
He was seen on tape dumping a magazine and bullets in a dumpster behind a store (what a few days ago?)
Why, perhaps dumping bullets of the same lot that he has used so far. Not good thinking to leave shells from semi auto laying around after a shooting. Why would he even care?

He cannot just walk into a burger place and eat. Probably getting hungry and more paranoid. When his truck broke down he was probably wearing typical southern California clothing and shoes.

He probably set his car on fire because he saw it in a movie. He has probably called his mother by now to bring him food. This will probably end with him holding his mother hostage.

I am trying to remember how Paul Newman's chain gang movie ended. Everyone wants to copy Hollywood movies nowadays.

No - he is only 33 years old? Most of Paul Newmans movies were too far back for him.

 

[cmort666]

The problem is that his actions jump back and forth between planned and seemingly panicked.

The questions are:

1. Does he really have a well organized plan?
2. Does he have the nerve to stick to it in the face of pressure and adversity, but the flexibility to modify it as circumstances dictate?

A military background points to the affirmative for both questions.

On the other hand, published statements regarding his personality and character make that hard to judge.

Further confusing the matter are his own statements regarding an intent to obfuscate his intentions and actions.

 

[crofoot629]

Who ever had their truck axel break?
Seems fishy to me.

There is some speculation the wrecker broke it.
Which still puts him in the mountains.

But I think he might be well out of the snow. He had years to plan this.

Emory

 

[venomballistics]

Lew, I like your analysis, but...

How do you reconcile him checking into the Navy Inn with his own ID after killing the first two people and before the boat incident? It's a calm and confident move right before what seems like a fright/flight move (the boat). It just seems out of place. I guess it might be that he panicked when his name was connected? But then, after what seems like a panic move to steal the boat, he goes to the vicinity of one of his listed targets and engages a police car and then ambushes another that he could have avoided. Those dual acts are not the acts of a panicked, fright/flight individual, but rather cold, confident, and determined. Then, he shows up in Big Bear which, again, seems like it's back fright/flight.

He said in his manifesto that any attempts to game him wouldn't work, so maybe that's what we are seeing.

Also, he's had potentially five years to plan this out, so he might possibly have already figured out this whole sequence. The truck breaking down seems to be unplanned, but as I said earlier, he was headed someplace, so if it was close, then perhaps he is back on plan? Or, he's dead in the snow someplace?

The problem is that his actions jump back and forth between planned and seemingly panicked.

The oscillation between cold and cool and flight isnt too hard to figure out.
the cold and cool moves are a result of that voice deep down inside that we all have that yells "MAN UP!!!!!!!!!!!!" when things get rough. So he continues on with the plan.
in actual execution he find himself in over his head, panic sets in overriding the previous man up order causing him to flee.
We all do this on some level ... try, try again comes to mind.
the thing is .. he's not made any aggressive moves since.
He no longer seems to acknowledging the man up memo.
I think, the unexpected equipment failure, weather, lead to the realization that he can't go back to society, they wont take him alive, and he can't go forward. Whats left to do but eat your gun?

 

[Delos]

Never abuse your vehicle

I am kind of hoping he is in tennis shoes and got a frozen foot.

Then one of those endangered California Mountain Lions ate him. Preferably one of the many with tracking collars planted by college students.

The usual ultimate end to paranoia is intoxication and hiding. He will need to sell his guns and bullets in some pawn shop for more and more booze.

No one on the run wants to go to a new area. The Police have his electronic history. They know all his phone calls by now. Some friend or relative will soon go to prison with him.

Or he will be shot in a shootout and his friends or relatives that helped him will go to jail.

A prison worker friend once mentioned how many prison inmate escape plans end at the fence. They think they made really long range detailed plans but the plan ended when they got past the fence or wall.

So, most being in their 20's, they went back to the old neighborhood.

But he is 33 and most friends would be married by now. And any friends he made in the police department are not going to hide him.

When the snow falls the deer migrate down the mountain. The mountain lions follow them. Unfortunately he will not be eaten by any mountain lion. He also will not be shooting any deer to eat.

He has not made any good decisions yet. He probably broke his truck by speeding - because in movies people on the run abuse their vehicles.

 

[Delos]

The final solution?

When a person is told they have a terminal illness they begin going through well known phases of Shock, Disbelief, Denial, and then what anger or confusion?

When a paranoid person stops eating he goes to low blood sugar first. That was first day.

When a new distance runner first gets exhausted (hit's the wall) he later gets lots of energy as his body changes from burning sugar to burning fat. (Second wind)

Most inmate suicides happen 4 or 5 hours after dinner when the blood sugar drops and cell doors locked for the night, back when they had individual cells.

Can he make it through each night? What about three hours after the sugar runs out. When the food runs out in whatever cabin, the first sunny day will he hike back down.

Or will each night get worse until he finally does the final desperate thing - he phones his mother.

And at that instant the choppers are in the air, roads are being blocked.

 

[amazingflapjack]

What prospective...

Hi Guys, I've been following along, off and on, and I have some comments and suggestions, and they are just that. What I have seen, and is typical of human beings in general, is a trend to look at the actions, affect, body language, etc of another individual, from our own prospective. And we tend, of course, to bring all of our biases, and preconceived ideas into these "assessments" when we do this, especially when we have a lot of personal experience in the area of human behavior in question. The stereotypical example in this is, obviously, law enforcement. Time and time again we see LEO's either interviewed, or as witnesses, or in there written reports make statements about a subjects behavior, affect, response, etc, stating that they don't think that these (what ever they might be) are the "correct" responses of an innocent, truthful, etc, person in the circumstances in question. Unfortunately, these are views, many times, based on their own experience, and are many times badly "scewed" by their own formulation as to who was responsible, or how an incident came to pass (who done it).Just watch tv news shows. And, alternatively, these self learned behaviorists claim to be experts in the psychology of human beings, and at the same time discard out of hand all psychological input from those who are trained to render it! What I would suggest to those who really are interested in delving into the make up of an incident like this is, at the very least, to avail yourselves of the on line dictionary, and search terms like "insanity," "Psychotic break," and "personality disorder" as a start. Check out the things associated with these terms, and then take a fresh look at the facts that are available, stepping out of the box, and using some critical thinking, with the goal being the truth, not who is right or wrong. That is unless you don't really wish to be informed, and only want your "opinions" validated. If that's the case, have fun. Flapjack.

 

[JJEH]

$1 million reward expected in manhunt

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2013/02/dorner-manhunt-reward-could-jump-start-search.html

 

[Lew Archer]

Thanks for your post, Venomballistics...my hunch is that the public announcement of him as being suspect in the double homicide sent him from mission mode to escape mode. And his escape actions seem, to me, improvised and not well thought out.

The timeline has gaps, so that makes analysis a challenge, I concede.

My hunch is also that there has not really been that much planning, beyond the double murder. Obviously, that action required planning. He had to select and locate his vicitms and develop a plan of attack. Note that those victims lived in Orange county. He also lived in Orange county. So the victim selection could have been influenced by convenience.

As I read the manifesto, I perceive a lot of fantasy, a lot of posturing...the verbage is grandiose...suggesting to me serious narcissim. He wants to impress the reader...he is all about getting attention and inspiring awe.

A very good question is "why now?" He was fired years ago, the appeal process completed (and not recently). Certainly it was a bitter, bitter pill for him, and festered...however, my guess is that other things have been going on in his life that triggered him to launch is revenge campaign, which, I suspect, has since turned into a hastiliy improvised escape attempt.

If, indeed, he his hunkered in the mountains with no internet connectivity, no news sources, the irony is that he is now finally getting all the attention his sick mind could ever dream of, and he can't enjoy it.

 

[Xfuzz]

Manifesto = Suicide note.

 

[pharmer]

I am trying to remember how Paul Newman's chain gang movie ended.

Luke gets killed by Boss Godfrey after realizing his prayers were not being heard. Joe

 

[feralmerril]

A million dollars for his ears is going to make things interesting. I wonder if the san berdo mountains will be swarming with bounty hunters looked for his carcass? He made plans early alright but with his truck put out of action I doubt he has made other plans. There is a good chance he already is dead by exposeuer or suicide.
It is a puzzel. Would the truck fire have made the axle metal more prone to snapping when dragged with the tranney locked up by the wrecker?
I read his mom owned property at lake arrowhead. Thats about 15 miles away from big bear. Of course he should have taken it for granite that it would be staked out for his arrival.
Personaly, I feel most people have been giveing him far too much credit for pre planning. He would need help and what other idiot would be willing to put their necks on the block for a cop killer? He cant be seen. Cant buy gas or even a taco. He has no future. I seriously doubt the disabled truck and fire was planned. I belive he paniced way before that, even before he attempted to steal the boat.

 

[ladyT]

My guess the burned out truck was a diverson. While the cops were searching in the cold and snow he was probably kicked back with a beer watching the news. I would also surmise that he has several hides and prepositioned supplies. For all anyone knows he is probably right under their nose which is the best place to hide.