Ok. Let's review...
He murders two people in an ambush attack as they sat in their car on Sunday. Yes, that was planned.
He's publicly identified as a suspect on Wednesday evening. A few hours later, he's trying to steal a boat. He tells the victim he's fleeing to Mexico. So much for his asymmetrical warfare campaign...his instinct is to run.
Not much coolheaded planning there...he can't get the boat free. He may have been in the Navy, but he doesn't sound like he's much of a sailor, does he?
So, he abandons that idea and drives north east. Maybe he was going to attack one of his targets, maybe not. Anyway, he is spotted an LAPD officers follow him. He attacks them...but this is in reaction to them following him, as opposed to a pre-planned attack.
Fleeing the scene of that shooting (note that he didn't stand his ground to shoot it out), he comes across unsuspecting Riverside PD officers and ambushes them, killing one. Again, not a pre-planned act like the murder on Sunday, but a target of opportunity.
Let me pause to offer my thoughts and prayers to Dorner's victims, and their families...
Back to my recap:
Now, on the run, he apparently drives to Big Bear. He abandons the car, which, according to news reports, has a broken axle. He burns the car, leaving behind weapons, according to news accounts. Why leave behind guns if you have a car stashed? Why try to steal a boat in San Diego if you have a car stashed in Big Bear?
Remember, this guy lived with his mom, apparently.
So, unless he has an accomplice, he winds up in Big Bear afoot...not because of a carefully constructed battle plan, but because of a series of impulsive acts.
He burns the car. Why? A diversion? To destroy evidence? Who knows? Remember that both oars aren't in the water here. We try to look for logic in the behavior of some one who is behaving in an irrational (and homicidal) fashion. My guess...another impulsive choice, that made sense to him at the time, but a bad choice, as it drew LE up there in force.
What now? Well, unless he's prepared to go camping, he's in real trouble, due to the weather. He needs food, water and shelter. This isn't a guy who went through SERE school. If his first plan was to hop a stolen boat to Mexico, he probably didn't pack his North Face gear. So, did he have time, after the failed boat theft attempt, to prepare to hole up in Big Bear? Did he run home to his mama's house and pack for a week in the mountains in February? Did he have the time to think about the weather? Or did he flee up there on impulse (like the boat theft attempt) and discover that he really wasn't up to the task.
Bottom line, he managed to plan and carry out the first attack. There was no external pressure on him at that point. However, the recent events do not seem to be part of a plan, but a hastily improvised escape attempt carried out under external pressure: fear of capture.
So much for his asymmetrical warfare campaign and on-line bravado. Unless he can find shelter or transportation, he is in real trouble out there. If he is still alive, that is. After all this excitement, he's likely to crash, emotionally. Maybe depression and hopelessness set in. That could lead to suicide. A lot of cop killers commit suicide within days of their offense. Even if not suicidal, unless he has shelter, the weather conditions are life threatening.
Is he dangerous? If still alive, and he sneaks up on you, yes. He is homicidal. But he is no commando, no super warrior. There is nothing in his background to suggest otherwise. He has been lethal when he has taken his victims by surprise.
Last thought: the allegations in the "manifesto" should be take with a huge grain of salt...it's all grandiose, self serving and it would be a mistake to assume his allegations are true.
He is (or was) driven by inner demons and serious mental illness. The "Cause" is NOT the cause, it's an excuse. An excuse for the inexcusable murder of innocents. Don't buy it.
