Sad experience today

[gregintenn]

The thing that I don't understand is why the manufacturers didn't add production capacity.

My understanding is that most of the major manufacturers have been running 24/7 for several years and still haven't been able to meet demand.

Assuming the machinery to make ammunition is available it would make more sense to me to add another line or two to the plant and increase production capacity (to a degree) without having to pay all that overtime.

If people are buying all that you make to not make more (if possible) is throwing away money.

I don't understand why they haven't raised prices. Wouldn't that create the same increased profits without the added liability of more buildings, machines, employees, etc?

 

[venomballistics]

I don't understand why they haven't raised prices. Wouldn't that create the same increased profits without the added liability of more buildings, machines, employees, etc?

Think I will hop aboard this sub discussion.
Production isn't catching up.
This tells me that there's a new normal demand.
I'm fairly certain that they are aware of this.
What cannot be determined is how much that average has increased.
That is an important figure to have before you start beating nails on new facilities. Overestimate, and your operating at a loss after demand is met.
Underestimate, and you may as well not have bothered.

 

[Ματθιας]

I don't understand why they haven't raised prices. Wouldn't that create the same increased profits without the added liability of more buildings, machines, employees, etc?

The prices have been raised. When I was buying ammo at wally world, I was paying IIRC $18-$20 in the last week of 10/2010 for a 550 Federal value pack. The last time I looked in, I think, March of this year, the same pack was $25.

I'm assuming that price increase is at the manufacturer and/or wholesale level and there's no middle man.

 

[Smoke]

Think I will hop aboard this sub discussion.
Production isn't catching up.
This tells me that there's a new normal demand.
I'm fairly certain that they are aware of this.
What cannot be determined is how much that average has increased.
That is an important figure to have before you start beating nails on new facilities. Overestimate, and your operating at a loss after demand is met.
Underestimate, and you may as well not have bothered.

Again, I'm not an expert but I saw a video about the East Alton plant that showed the manufacturing process and it appeared to be cells rather than an actual assembly line. So I don't think they would need that much extra space and since they just built a new plant they should have the space already there because no one builds for exactly the square footage they need they leave room for expansion

I assume Olin Manufacturing knows how much product is on back order and they know how many machines and how many man hours it would take to meet that demand.

So, they add half of that and see if it leads to an increase in revenue then they add half of what's left and see how the market levels out.

As I said before I'm sure the machines are durable and can be shut down when not in production.

I also assume that we haven't seen the last of these ammo panics driven by attempts to further restrict our gun rights and the machines can be taken out of and brought back into service as needed.

If ammo costs a buck a box and I can only make 100 boxes a day but I have orders for 150 boxes every day if I don't find a way to make the 50 I'm throwing away money.

 

[venomballistics]

Nah, that 50 is a guaranteed sale tomorrow.

 

[Smoke]

Underestimate, and you may as well not have bothered.

I don't know if I agree with that.

If you underestimate you still aren't meeting demand but you're also still selling every round you make.

So you expand some more again conservatively and you're still selling every round you make.

I used to work for a trauma implant device maker that set a goal of turning their entire warehouse every 30 days. that allowed them to have some product in stock but not too much investing in warehouse space and dead product. They literally had orders on the truck 10 minutes after receiving them.

I'll bet right now Olin isn't even storing product in the warehouse an longer than it takes to get it from final QA to the truck.

So they set an initial goal to have 10 days stock on hand and go from there.

 

[Smoke]

Nah, that 50 is a guaranteed sale tomorrow.

And tomorrow you're 100 behind the curve and Joe's ammo is going to steal your customers.

 

[venomballistics]

And tomorrow you're 100 behind the curve and Joe's ammo is going to steal your customers.

Then the 50 never existed.
If you can't find Remington, look for Federal, then try winchester.
Joe ain't any further ahead than you

 

[coltle6920]

I love a good "Omg no 22lr" thread. 2nd only to "should I use +P, and right in front of "what gun for bears"

Are you saying that .22Lr comes in +P? Is it cheaper than WMR?

 

[Arik]

No. Just that the most common threads are "can I use +P in my gun, where has all the 22lr gone?" and "what to carry in bear country"

 

[Alpo]

Are you saying that .22Lr comes in +P? Is it cheaper than WMR?

Sure does, only it's called "Stingers" and "Yellow Jackets" instead of +P.

Same thing, though.

 

[coltle6920]

Why is that a shame? Internet purchasing is nothing more than 21st century catalog shopping. And thanks to the fine folks who frequent this forum, the "in stock 22lr" ammo thread makes it a lead pipe cinch that you can have plenty of affordable ammo delivered to your door in a matter of days.

It's easier than voting - oh wait, there are people complaining about how they feel "disenfranchised", too.

Buying online is unpatriotic because the State you live in loses the tax revenue.At least that's what I've heard.

 

[spad124]

Your correct. We should, and do introduce newcomers.
My point early on was that while the 22lr is a spectacular round for the task of training, it's not the only game in town.
It never had a monopoly.
357 in a lever action is bliss.
30 carbine ain't none too bad either.
327 federal got drilled into a few rifles. Too bad no one warmed up to that one.
In the hands of a well seasoned hand loader, a great many cartridges can be tamed to meet the task with brilliance.
I've introduced and taught many from as far back as my late teens.
Oddly, in the past 15 years, I didn't employ a 22 to the task.

This is the sad part for me.
There's a metric poop ton of options, and everyone seems to just lay down and take it rather than look to the right or left of the bare 22lr shelf, to something else that will work, and is there.

In fact, yes, I reload and have for about 25 years. During this 22LR "situation" I have I've taken to shooting more .38, 45ACP, 30 Carbine and .223. I have, or can find, powder, bullets, and primers for those calibers.

I agree that .38 Special is one of the most versatile calibers and an excellent caliber to begin training new shooters. Particularly in a K or L frame with a 4 or 6 inch barrel.

Similarly, .223 is also a good beginner round, either in a bolt action or an AR.

I'll reload both of those calibers and can find all the .223 I can buy on the shelves.

 

[williamlayton]

Hoarders suck !
Blessings

 

[gregintenn]

Think I will hop aboard this sub discussion.
Production isn't catching up.
This tells me that there's a new normal demand.
I'm fairly certain that they are aware of this.
What cannot be determined is how much that average has increased.
That is an important figure to have before you start beating nails on new facilities. Overestimate, and your operating at a loss after demand is met.
Underestimate, and you may as well not have bothered.

Let's compare this to bacon.

I understand there is a pork shortage due to some sort of disease. Short term, they aren't dealing with the shortage by producing a bunch of new hogs, they have been steadily raising the price of pork products such as bacon to the point that a lot of people are leaving it in the retailer's cooler.

I've yet to meet a bacon gouger.

I can still buy all the bacon I want at any grocery store if I'm willing to shell out the cash.

Long term, supply will catch up with demand, but today, price adjustment guarantees availability and maximized profits.

I don't see why ammunition couldn't work the same way.

 

[Smoke]

Short term, they aren't dealing with the shortage by producing a bunch of new hogs,

I see your point but I think that we're going to see an overall trend of ammunition demand going up not down.

JMO but if they can produce more ammunition and still sell at at the inflated price they make more money.

I'm not in the ammuntion manufacturing industry but to me it seems like it would be a good investment.

Obviously the folks that are in the ammunition manufacturing industry don't agree with me becuase they aren't adding any large degree of production capacity.

 

[Alpo]

Let's compare this to bacon.

I understand there is a pork shortage due to some sort of disease. Short term, they aren't dealing with the shortage by producing a bunch of new hogs, they have been steadily raising the price of pork products such as bacon to the point that a lot of people are leaving it in the retailer's cooler.

I've yet to meet a bacon gouger.

I can still buy all the bacon I want at any grocery store if I'm willing to shell out the cash.

Long term, supply will catch up with demand, but today, price adjustment guarantees availability and maximized profits.

I don't see why ammunition couldn't work the same way.

Is that what's going on? I wondered why, over the last year, bacon has gone from two to seven dollars a pound. Wow.

 

[redlevel]

Is that what's going on? I wondered why, over the last year, bacon has gone from two to seven dollars a pound. Wow.

PEDv is what it is. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus.

Virus Kills Millions of American Pigs, Pushing Up Pork Prices

 

[gregintenn]

I see your point but I think that we're going to see an overall trend of ammunition demand going up not down.

JMO but if they can produce more ammunition and still sell at at the inflated price they make more money.

I'm not in the ammuntion manufacturing industry but to me it seems like it would be a good investment.

Obviously the folks that are in the ammunition manufacturing industry don't agree with me becuase they aren't adding any large degree of production capacity.

I'm just guessing here, but I imagine the ammo producers saw this as a temporary situation. Turns out it hasn't been all that temporary. I still believe ammo sales will decline to a more normal level eventually. The million dollar question is "when?".

 

[Smoke]

I'm just guessing here, but I imagine the ammo producers saw this as a temporary situation. Turns out it hasn't been all that temporary. I still believe ammo sales will decline to a more normal level eventually. The million dollar question is "when?".

Like I said this is just speculation on my part.

I assume the ammo producers looked at a lot more data than I have and decide it wasn't profitable to make any more than the expansions they already have and I have to admit ammo is coming back.