Sad experience today

[lonejacklarry]

I assume Olin Manufacturing knows how much product is on back order and they know how many machines and how many man hours it would take to meet that demand.

and:

I also assume that we haven't seen the last of these ammo panics driven by attempts to further restrict our gun rights and the machines can be taken out of and brought back into service as needed.

You are right on each idea but together they make a faulty conclusion. I have no idea how much money a bullet making machine would cost but it would likely be a bunch. No business can afford to buy equipment and plan for it to sit idle unless it is the very short term.

Your theory that the various politicians will continue to reduce our 2nd amendment rights is valid--they will always be there. Depending on the status of the "in power" group, one can usually surmise the damage each side will do. The current bunch doesn't like guns. No surprise there.

Watch the newspapers and you all can be alert for the next time this happens, too. Then see if "hoarders" is a bad word if you have a footlocker full of mini-mags.

 

[ImprovedModel56Fan]

Buying online is unpatriotic because the State you live in loses the tax revenue.At least that's what I've heard.

Too bad I can't buy online. Look at my location. Do you think I aspire to be a revenooer?

 

[Ματθιας]

Too bad I can't buy online. Look at my location. Do you think I aspire to be a revenooer?

Well, the Founders of our great nation were smugglers, bootleggers, tax evaders, and all around hated government - you know, the kind of folks our current government would lock away.

For some reason, I admire them!

 

[ImprovedModel56Fan]

Anyone who believes that the .22 shortage is long term and that the ammo companies should add production capacity is welcome to take of advantage of the error of all the ammo manufacturers and invest his own money (or convince others to invest their money in his enterprise) in creating .22 ammo production. If he is right, he will make mucho money for a long time. If he is wrong, he will fail to make mucho money.

There is a formal unrecorded poll already in process as we read - those who believe that there is money in increased production capacity are rounding up investors, or investing their own money. Those who don't, aren't.

Don't know the count yet, but I suspect that right this moment, it's zero versus the rest of the world, despite some opinions posted here.

 

[venomballistics]

Let's compare this to bacon.

I understand there is a pork shortage due to some sort of disease. Short term, they aren't dealing with the shortage by producing a bunch of new hogs, they have been steadily raising the price of pork products such as bacon to the point that a lot of people are leaving it in the retailer's cooler.

I've yet to meet a bacon gouger.

I can still buy all the bacon I want at any grocery store if I'm willing to shell out the cash.

Long term, supply will catch up with demand, but today, price adjustment guarantees availability and maximized profits.

I don't see why ammunition couldn't work the same way.

Pork is a trade commodity, with price structure answering directly to wall street.
If I had to compare 22 to another commodity, I think crack cocaine, or crystal meth offers more likeness.
You can, and probably should, do without either.
Like crack, the 22 addict is fixated upon the next brick to feed the addiction. Some people think that 22 is a form of post collapse currency.
Quite frankly, they can die sitting on a pile of the useless junk. Anyone with enough brains to make it that far will have done so with a real gun, and might be looking for the 308, 30-30, 12ga,243, 7mm, 30-06, 44 magnum.
22 is the one you eat after you have failed to recognize your failure, and left yourself facing suicide or starvation, and failed to save the last round of 00 for that purpose.

It really does not matter much how the shortage came to be, or how it persists.
Fact is, some here to read this will die of old age before 22 gets hammered back out.
If you can find a few hundred rounds, fine, get it and put it in lock down so that the guns so chambered, aren't useless.

Then look at powders. Look at what is most abundant right now.
Look for cartridges the use these most abundant propellants and add one to the safe. My bet is that it will be a 30-30.
stop thumbing your nose at it. For most of the crunch, this one was like an elderly curmudgeon, oscillating between laughter and taunts upon the shelf yelling, "Ya punk", "What I'm not good nuf fer ya!!"
there might have been a whole month at the worst points where that obnoxious little twerp had cause to shut up.

 

[Smoke]

Anyone who believes that the .22 shortage is long term and that the ammo companies should add production capacity is welcome to take of advantage of the error of all the ammo manufacturers and invest his own money (or convince others to invest their money in his enterprise) in creating .22 ammo production. If he is right, he will make mucho money for a long time. If he is wrong, he will fail to make mucho money.

There is a formal unrecorded poll already in process as we read - those who believe that there is money in increased production capacity are rounding up investors, or investing their own money. Those who don't, aren't.

Don't know the count yet, but I suspect that right this moment, it's zero versus the rest of the world, despite some opinions posted here.

I think I made it pretty clear that this was purely speculation on my part and that I wasn't in possession of the same information that the ammo producers are.

I also stated that they must have a good reason for not ramping up production across the board.

 

[ImprovedModel56Fan]

I think I made it pretty clear that this was purely speculation on my part and that I wasn't in possession of the same information that the ammo producers are.

I also stated that they must have a good reason for not ramping up production across the board.

Smoke,

I certainly wasn't aiming my post at you. In fact, it wasn't aimed at any individual; I have no stake in even remembering who expressed this or that opinion on the ammo manufacturers' situation, whatever exactly it is. I was simply pointing out that the real poll was already in progress, and taking a guess as to where it stood.

520

 

[venomballistics]

I think I made it pretty clear that this was purely speculation on my part and that I wasn't in possession of the same information that the ammo producers are.

I also stated that they must have a good reason for not ramping up production across the board.

Speculation is a good tool for finding a path to a solid answer.
But at the end of the day. It's not our circus, and not our monkeys.
We are simply watching the show.

Our circus, has more to do with ways of getting through the next crunch.
This will mean eliminating our dependence upon 22.
It was, and will again be, the hottest point of the game.
Unless we take pleasure in the suffering associated with it, it's better to make distance from the hot spots as much as possible.

 

[hangnoose]

PORCINE DIARRHEA

THANKS ALOT! I never thought I'd lose my appetite for bacon, but that helps.

 

[Lost Lake]

Here's one excellent explanation that makes sense to me. It is from Sierra Bullets, and I'll quote a piece of it if I may, please follow the link for the whole story.

Why Can?t I Find .22 LR Ammunition?!?!? | Sierra Bullets


Demand – Now we are getting to the real meat of the issue. You hear manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their Rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY (estimate on my part from numbers I have heard from the big rimfire guys) into the market – so how can there be a shortage? I have asked this myself – until we start doing even a little basic math. You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let's cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot – right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let's say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all – is 17.5 BILLION rounds. Let that sink in. Even at 25 million rounds being made PER DAY – that is 1.92 years' worth of production.

Starts making some sense then doesn't it? Hoarding and panic emptied the shelves. Gougers try and keep them empty and demand does keep them empty. Then factor in that I probably cut the real number of 22 LR shooters in ½ and probably underestimated the amount everyone would buy if they found it at normal prices by 300% and you can see how deep the problem really is and why it is not going to go away tomorrow. It also does not take into account the world market – just the USA.

So if current production would even only be sufficient for every .22 owner to buy a single brick per year (cutting some numbers here to avoid any argument) then only shooting a brick a year each would keep us at the panic stage of demand.

.

 

[J. W.]

It's easy to get annoyed at those laying on a supply of ammo and components, but it's hard to call them wrong, IMO.

The market has fundamentally changed in the last few years. We're one shooting away from the shelves being bare again. People are rightly afraid of loosing their 2nd amendment rights or having them severely restricted. I don't know if we'll ever see a complete return to they way thing were prior to 2008.



Sent from my iPhone 4s using Tapatalk

 

[bushmaster1313]

It seems to be available online for $100/1000

 

[venomballistics]

It seems to be available online for $100/1000

which makes this a more economical solution.

between 8 and 12 grains of blue dot is the approximate baseline load for this test string.
low cost.
low recoil.
low report.
reloadable.

could you whack rabbits and limb rats with it?
Roger Wilco
could you teach someone to shoot with it?
You betcha.
could you put the fear of God into a tin can with it?
umm yeah ....
do you really need a 22?
you decide.

 

[Smoke]

FWIW I did some research and some of the major manufacturers have added production capacity. Olin and Remington are the two that stick out in my mind.

Apparently there was a major fire at the Olin (Winchester) plant in East Alton Illinois that stopped production for a time and then there was a labor dispute that lead Olin to move their factory entirely from East Alton to Oxford Mississippi.

I'm not sure if it qualifies as "expansion" but the Plant in Oxford is larger than the one in East Alton and has more and newer (more efficient) machinery.

A manufacturer makes 100% of the product they can make. If they have orders for 150% of the product that they make and they can increase production by 45-50% that's good but obviously they don't want to increase by 100%.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XhOSXD-VKE

http://gunssavelives.net/gun-industry/video-breaking-fire-at-winchester-ammo-plant/

 

[venomballistics]

True, however, it's done little to quell the drama.
Get out the molds, the 30 06, and try the blue dot load.
150 grain flat point , start at 10 grains.
If you like it, keep it. Little hot, ease your way down to as little as 7.5. Want a little more ... I've had it as high as 13
somewhere close to the 8 grain mark is a phenomenal suppressor load where it can hold 1050 fps with a single digit ES using federal 215 primers.

Do this, and your free of the 22lr drama forever more.
Now THAT is what a real favor looks like at a time like this.

 

[Smoke]

Do this, and your free of the 22lr drama forever more.
Now THAT is what a real favor looks like at a time like this.

I only have 1 .22 and it's a bolt action CZ452. Beautiful gun but I haven't shot it in over 4 years

 

[TIMETRIPPER]

Let's compare this to bacon.

The only problem with that comparison is that nobody stocks up a 5 year supply of bacon! The shelf life of 22 ammo is quite long. I know of many that have 20 years old 22 bricks stowed away for a rainy day. Don't believe I'd care to eat bacon that old!
John

 

[TIMETRIPPER]

venomballistics said:

do you really need a 22?
you decide.

That's the beauty of reloading. Let's see... 3.5 gr of Bullseye behind a cast 158 g RN for 38 Special gives me 2000 very accurate loads. Last time I bought a pound of powder it cost $30. Figure primers at $35/1000, cost of reclaimed range lead at zilch and cases same. That makes it 5 cents a shot. Reloading my 32's is cheaper.
It's getting harder to find 22 for less than 10 cents per round, when you can find it.
I load home cast for my 32-20 Stevens 44 and will for a 39-55 Rolling block when finished. Guess I'm gonna be looking for some molds for my 6.5 swede and 30-06 as well.
If the supply of primers and smokeless powder dries up we can always resort to the ultimate reloading proposition... a flintlock muzzle loader. I already gots one of them.
Flints are naturally occurring. And if black powder gets scarce we'll make our own. Think I can make charcoal and saltpeter, just need to find a good source for sulfur.
John

 

[Lost Lake]

I see Timetripper's point, but he doesn't account for the time it takes to make 2,000 loads either!

I've got a busy schedule and grabbing a box of .22 is pretty easy.

I haven't found any for over a year around here, except one time at a little LGS I found 4 boxes of 50 that were marked at $2.19 each. I was giddy!!! I ended up giving them to my nephew though so he could shoot.

My wife on the other hand is a .22 magnet! She will walk into nearly any store and find a brick of .22. Last week we went to the local Fleet Farm and she asked if they had any .22 and the young gal said yep! One box left! She went in the back and came out with a box of Winchester 333 for $14.89.

My little good luck charm she is!

 

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Here's one excellent explanation that makes sense to me. It is from Sierra Bullets, and I'll quote a piece of it if I may, please follow the link for the whole story.

Why Can?t I Find .22 LR Ammunition?!?!? | Sierra Bullets


Demand – Now we are getting to the real meat of the issue. You hear manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their Rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY (estimate on my part from numbers I have heard from the big rimfire guys) into the market – so how can there be a shortage? I have asked this myself – until we start doing even a little basic math. You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let's cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot – right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let's say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all – is 17.5 BILLION rounds. Let that sink in. Even at 25 million rounds being made PER DAY – that is 1.92 years' worth of production.

Starts making some sense then doesn't it? Hoarding and panic emptied the shelves. Gougers try and keep them empty and demand does keep them empty. Then factor in that I probably cut the real number of 22 LR shooters in ½ and probably underestimated the amount everyone would buy if they found it at normal prices by 300% and you can see how deep the problem really is and why it is not going to go away tomorrow. It also does not take into account the world market – just the USA.

So if current production would even only be sufficient for every .22 owner to buy a single brick per year (cutting some numbers here to avoid any argument) then only shooting a brick a year each would keep us at the panic stage of demand.

.

I think the author makes good points, but I believe he has missed the real issue. There has always been many millions of rimfire owners. What changed?

The below is what changed. This isn't your daddy's Marlin 60 and 10-22 rimfire world anymore.

I've had .22s for over 40 years. But when the below S&W M&P 15-22 came on the market about 5 years ago my consumption of rimfire ammo increased dramatically. These guns are just plain fun to shoot and their popularity is across the board from young folks to older guys. Rimfire guns from the factory with threaded barrels? Well... of course ya got to hang a can from the muzzle... thus the rimfire suppressor market has grown like crazy too. Supressed shooting is only about a gazillion times more fun, so ya got to buy more guns that are suppressor ready... and so on and so on... all these guns came threaded and ready to go. This simply wasn't around 10 years ago. I can't stop shooting!