Moldova Votes for EU Accession

[biku324]

Yes. UKR will regain its original borders. They don't have to do it militarily - Afghanistan War failure and Western pressure crushed the Soviet Union when it had far more influence and economic resources than does Russia now. Russia's GDP falls nicely between that of Italy and Mexico, and Putin has burned through the (unfrozen) financial reserves he amassed specifically for expansionism and has likewise burned through nearly his entire stock of modern weaponry for land war. His air force could not establish air superiority even before UKR had F-16s and in two weeks, Mirage 2000 5F fighters.

In the meantime, Europe has found other sources for gas and accelerated reliance on alternative energy - world fossil fuel demand is slumping as current US and Qatari production is going all out, depriving Putin of his best tool for soft power. His friends, the PRC, are at 40% EV in their fleet and growing exponentially while flooding the world with cheap EV built on technology stolen from Teslas and improved. In the meantime, Finland and Sweden are now in NATO.

Putin over-reached; the main question now is how long the Russian collapse will take. Only Putin's fan boys seem unwilling to grasp this. A central bank prime rate of 21% and climbing? Really?

 

[Ματθιας]

Yes. UKR will regain its original borders. They don't have to do it militarily -

If they aren't going do it militarily, then why not end the war and negotiate instead of sacrificing people?

Afghanistan War failure and Western pressure crushed the Soviet Union when it had far more influence and economic resources than does Russia now. Russia's GDP falls nicely between that of Italy and Mexico, and Putin has burned through the (unfrozen) financial reserves he amassed specifically for expansionism and has likewise burned through nearly his entire stock of modern weaponry for land war. His air force could not establish air superiority even before UKR had F-16s and in two weeks, Mirage 2000 5F fighters.

In the meantime, Europe has found other sources for gas and accelerated reliance on alternative energy - world fossil fuel demand is slumping as current US and Qatari production is going all out, depriving Putin of his best tool for soft power. His friends, the PRC, are at 40% EV in their fleet and growing exponentially while flooding the world with cheap EV built on technology stolen from Teslas and improved. In the meantime, Finland and Sweden are now in NATO.

. Deflection.

Putin over-reached; the main question now is how long the Russian collapse will take. Only Putin's fan boys seem unwilling to grasp this. A central bank prime rate of 21% and climbing? Really?

For years, you have been making predictions about Russia and other things that haven't happened. Not a single one. None. Zip. Zero. Nada. Wake me up when the "collapse" actually happens.

The only people who are delusional enough to believe Ukraine will get territory back are US .gov/media believers, the Tesla trump tower crispy guy and the guy hiding near a golf course with an SKS.

But what do I know.

 

[biku324]

You really should go see what is happening on Russia's borders. The view is more accurate from there. Reading or watching video is a poor substitute for seeing what is there and talking with people who live there and watched the Russians for centuries.

What is going to happen we will see in good time.

 

[YeshuaIsa53]

Putin will ask Trump to abandon NATO. Just my thoughts.

 

[ladder13]

We know what has happened…..maybe. Let me consult my crystal ball for what will happen.

 

[GaryS]

Trump needs a good laugh, I'm sure he'll enjoy the joke.

Putin will ask Trump to abandon NATO. Just my thoughts.

 

[biku324]

Putin will ask Trump to abandon NATO. Just my thoughts.

Even if we abandoned UKR, NATO is now all of Europe, including the Swedish defense industrial base. The EU has been providing far more to UKR than have we, as they have seen this movie before. Would us backing away hurt? Sure - but what just the EU provides UKR is on parity with Russian defense budgeting.

Again, Russia has burned through their once-huge stocks of modern weaponry and are reactivating 1960s tanks and armored vehicles. And not one of the 2014 model T-14 Armata Russian tanks have been deployed in this war because there are only a handful and they are extremely expensive and complex. F-16s and Mirage 5Fs are more than a match for anything Russia can field, and they couldn't establish air superiority even when UKR had only Soviet-era aircraft.

The notion that Russia winning is inevitable because of population is prima facie untenable - population doesn't replace fiscal and industrial capacity. Remember - Russia can build 250-300 new T-90s annually, and repair/refit a like number.

Russia has overall lost over 3,600 main battle tanks and nearly 8,000 armored vehicles since it began its invasion in February 2022, the U.K. defense department said.

This has led to the Russian military increasingly relying on its stockpile of Soviet-era equipment, which is outdated and poorly maintained. Satellite Images Show Scale of Russian Losses As 'Outdated' Vehicles Used - Newsweek

 

[UncleEd]

I've enjoyed how some on this forum have always been ready to throw in the towel on Ukraine. They have been that way since the first days of the Russian invasion.

And one of the reasons is that U.S. involvement will cost too much money. I guess freedom has always been a dollar and cents proposition.

 

[dockmurgw]

Seems to me that the best thing we can do for Ukraine can be done right here in the good ole US of A... drill and frack, export oil & gas and crater the world market. Without oil & gas revenue Vlad will have nothing but a seemingly endless supply of unequipped raw meat. Cut off his main source of revenue...starve the beast. And as an added bonus, this would put the hurt on the usual suspects that also use oil revenue to prop up their regimes.

 

[biku324]

Here's an other illuminating example of Russia's situation:

Russia has even called upon MosFilm, its renowned state movie studio, to supply vintage military equipment. The studio has sent 28 T-55 tanks from the 1950s, along with 8 PT-76 amphibious armored vehicles, 6 BMP armored transport vehicles, and 8 tractors from its warehouses. These vehicles initially used as props for film productions, are now being deployed in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This event highlights Russia's growing need to resort to alternative means to maintain its capabilities on the ground, despite the outdated nature and unsuitability of this equipment for modern conflict. The use of tanks and armored vehicles that would typically serve cultural purposes underscores the extent of the logistical and material challenges the Russian army faces amid the intensity of the current conflict. Russia Refurbishes Armored Vehicles Following Heavy Losses in Ukraine

 

[GaryS]

I've been "reliably" informed that this is all propaganda.

A few years ago I watched a four part French documentary on the history of tanks. The early WW1 part was pretty interesting, but most of the rest was pretty standard. Part 4 spent considerable time talking about the Armata and how it would revolutionize armored warfare. Russia was set to build "several thousand" tanks that would make all existing tanks obsolete.

I started doing my own research on the Armata and found out that to date Russia has built about a dozen pre production test versions. They just don't have the capability to build more because of the sanctions being imposed.

The Russian military and defense contractors are renowned... for corruption and incompetency.

Even if we abandoned UKR, NATO is now all of Europe, including the Swedish defense industrial base. The EU has been providing far more to UKR than have we, as they have seen this movie before. Would us backing away hurt? Sure - but what just the EU provides UKR is on parity with Russian defense budgeting.

Again, Russia has burned through their once-huge stocks of modern weaponry and are reactivating 1960s tanks and armored vehicles. And not one of the 2014 model T-14 Armata Russian tanks have been deployed in this war because there are only a handful and they are extremely expensive and complex. F-16s and Mirage 5Fs are more than a match for anything Russia can field, and they couldn't establish air superiority even when UKR had only Soviet-era aircraft.

The notion that Russia winning is inevitable because of population is prima facie untenable - population doesn't replace fiscal and industrial capacity. Remember - Russia can build 250-300 new T-90s annually, and repair/refit a like number.

Russia has overall lost over 3,600 main battle tanks and nearly 8,000 armored vehicles since it began its invasion in February 2022, the U.K. defense department said.

This has led to the Russian military increasingly relying on its stockpile of Soviet-era equipment, which is outdated and poorly maintained. Satellite Images Show Scale of Russian Losses As 'Outdated' Vehicles Used - Newsweek

 

[biku324]

World renowned...

 

[GaryS]

To be honest, all Communist nations are renowned for corruption and incompetence.

Which is why when I read about a new super duper weapon from NK, China, or Russia I'm skeptical.

World renowned...

 

[CH4]

Go to Romania and hang a right...

Or go to central Ukraine and head south.

 

[biku324]

Seems to me that the best thing we can do for Ukraine can be done right here in the good ole US of A... drill and frack, export oil & gas and crater the world market. Without oil & gas revenue Vlad will have nothing but a seemingly endless supply of unequipped raw meat. Cut off his main source of revenue...starve the beast. And as an added bonus, this would put the hurt on the usual suspects that also use oil revenue to prop up their regimes.

Ask and ye shall receive; knock and the door will open.

In a historic move, Ukraine received its first LNG shipment from the United States via a terminal in Greece, according to the head of the office of the president of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak.

The shipment was organised by Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK. It arrived at Greece’s Revitusa LNG terminal on Friday morning.

The delivery included about 100 million cubic meters of gas, which is equivalent to 1 terawatt-hour of energy. While DTEK retained about 10% of the cargo to enhance Ukraine’s energy security, the remaining gas was sold to Greek energy companies. Ukraine Gets Its First LNG Shipment From U.S. Amid Ongoing War With Russia

 

[Ματθιας]

You all can say whatever you want to yourselves and try to manifest a Ukrainian victory/land swap.

All I say look at a map, any map, note the day by day frontline changes, then, tell us who has the upper hand in this conflict. Be honest. It's obvious to all but the delusional.

But let's be real, this is a proxy war. The US/NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian or the it becomes too politically untenable.

Does the average American care what happens in Ukraine? The average American can't find it on the map.

 

[biku324]

You all can say whatever you want to yourselves and try to manifest a Ukrainian victory/land swap.

All I say look at a map, any map, note the day by day frontline changes, then, tell us who has the upper hand in this conflict. Be honest. It's obvious to all but the delusional.

But let's be real, this is a proxy war. The US/NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian or the it becomes too politically untenable.

Does the average American care what happens in Ukraine? The average American can't find it on the map.

People who do conflict analysis for a living differ with you.

ISW has not assessed that any of the settlements that Russian forces seized in 2024 are operationally significant, as seizing these settlements has not allowed Russian forces to threaten any notable Ukrainian defensive nodes, and Russian forces have failed to conduct the kind of rapid, mechanized maneuver necessary to convert these tactical gains into deep penetrations of Ukraine's rear. ISW currently assesses that Russian forces must capture approximately 8,559 square kilometers, which include significant Ukrainian defensive positions and large cities along Ukraine's fortress belt, to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War

 

[Ματθιας]

People who do conflict analysis for a living differ with you.

ISW has not assessed that any of the settlements that Russian forces seized in 2024 are operationally significant, as seizing these settlements has not allowed Russian forces to threaten any notable Ukrainian defensive nodes, and Russian forces have failed to conduct the kind of rapid, mechanized maneuver necessary to convert these tactical gains into deep penetrations of Ukraine's rear. ISW currently assesses that Russian forces must capture approximately 8,559 square kilometers, which include significant Ukrainian defensive positions and large cities along Ukraine's fortress belt, to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 31, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War

Yeah, we'll just ignore the 25% of Ukraine that's currently under Russian control and growing. Ignore it. Didn't happen. Right?

 

[biku324]

No one made that argument. And you omitted the km2 of Russia Ukraine now occupies, which incidentally contains the now deactivated Gazprom pipeline to Europe's control station at Sudzha.

 

[UncleEd]

.
Does the average American care what happens in Ukraine? The average American can't find it on the map.

Foreign policy and world strategy should not be based on the average citizen's ignorance.

Or to put in more mundane terms, building a modern automobile should not be based on what I know about building such a vehicle.