Electric vehicles...

delcrossv said:
The unstated lemma being that they'd be an IMPROVEMENT that would draw customers. Like plastic semis offer faster reloading, more capacity and lower price. That's what's necessary for the analogy to work.

As they are, EV's aren't an improvement or even a comparable except in some very specific environments. E.G. you're daughter's commute in temperate California.

If EV's offered a significant advantage, everyone would be clamoring to buy them. ;)

Stet?
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Bingo. If EVs were good, they wouldn't have to pay people to buy them.

If batteries were a viable option for cars in general, they would have been perfected in the past 140 years that they've existed.

The EV thing is a massive fraud. People "think they are coming" because their TV has told them that for 25 years now. That's the only reason.
 
smithra_66 said:
I'm relatively young and work in the tech industry. I have no fear of change.

I have fear of change for stupid reasons like "Global Warming" for a product that brings us backward.
Click to expand...

I think that's the real rub. You either believe in climate change, or don't.
 
sigp220.45 said:
I think that's the real rub. You either believe in climate change, or don't.
Click to expand...

Even if you did, you'd have to be smart enough to realize that EVs still are powered by electricity, which is still largely produced by fossil fuels.

You then also factor in massive battery disposal, massive ramp up in rare earth materials, etc., and even that falls flat if you can think more than even 1 step ahead. All they do is transfer the emissions from the tailpipe to the smoke stack and the mine.

They are a hoax. People who say they "are the future" are those that simply question nothing and believe everything they are told.
 
sigp220.45 said:
I think that's the real rub. You either believe in climate change, or don't.
Click to expand...

When in the history of the world has the climate NOT changed? The big lie is that we are the ones doing it, instead of the natural elements.

There have been several ice ages before humans came along, or were industrialized. I'm pretty sure there was global warming in between every one of them in order for there to be another one.
 
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Protocall_Design said:
When in the history of the world has the climate NOT changed? The big lie is that we are the ones doing it, instead of the natural elements.
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Yep. And if it really were the "existential threat" they say it is, why are they pushing technologies like wind and solar that won't have any effect and slow-walking technologies like nuclear that would?
 
delcrossv said:
If EVs went 1000 miles on a charge and recharged in 60 seconds, your analogy would fit.

As things are now, not so much.
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We aren't too far away from EV's that will give 600 miles on a charge and go from a 20% charge state to an 80% charge state in 15 minutes. For a large percentage of drivers that will be quite sufficient. If a consumer could buy several different make and model EV's that offer that kind of performance and do so for under $40K, then the EV market will really explode.

Today ? Not quite ready for prime time. But it's coming.
 
GA 1911 said:
I say a good point. I've read the annual report of Georgia Power which makes my electric power. They own several dams that produce less than 5% of the power to my house.

They get 92% of their electricity from burning natural gas and coal. This is the solution to Global Warming?

My idea to ban all jet flights (a big part of pollution). We have Zoom to communicate.
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Georgia is behind the curve. In NM, PNM (our primary state electric provider), got 23.11% of power from renewables (wind, solar, geothermal), just under the 23.50% we get from coal, and far more than from the 14.27% we get from nuclear. Only NG tops renewables substantially with 35.5% of total power capacity. And that data is nearly 2 years old; an enormous wind farm near Corona and Duran is now online as of a few months ago. Energy Sources - pnmprod - pnm.com

Do recall that the spent fuel rod disposal problem is why nuclear isn't growing. A 24,000,000 year half-life seems problematic to some.
 
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Well, you caught me - they've only been in business since 1917 (really 1882), so they could go belly-up at any moment. :)

They do good work, and their residential rates per kwh are 56% lower than my electric cooperative.
 
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biku324 said:
Your data covers one part of your post; what does high tax, high population density Geermany have to do with us? And where's the report on them slashing their forests to make electricity?

Germany taxes renewables at roughly 43 cents per kilowatt hour now, down from over 60 cents before the Ukraine War.
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You do have Google, don't you? Look it up. :)
 
delcrossv said:
You do have Google, don't you? Look it up. :)
Click to expand...

I found some old US-reported fear-mongering from July, but that was about wood for heat, not electricity production.

Doesn't matter now, according to the Bundesnetzagentur today:

According to the Bundesnetzagentur, Germany's federal network regulator, households and light industry in the country consumed less gas last week than the average for the same period between 2018-2021. The news followed a similar find from the week prior.

Agency President Klaus Müller said households consumed an average of 608 gigawatt-hours per day in calendar week 41, compared to 881 GWh/day in previous years — a drop of 31%.

To avoid an energy crisis this winter, German officials say citizens must cut gas consumption by at least 20%.

Beyond that, they say the country's liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals must be able to pump fuel into the national gas network at the start of the new year, and the annual winter drop in gas imports as well as exports to third countries must both be moderate.

Germany's reserves are currently at 96.49% of capacity, despite a halt to Russian gas imports in August — Russia had been Germany's main gas supplier until Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Deliveries from Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands, coupled with very low levels of exports to Austria, France and the Czech Republic, have all played in Germany's favor.

Floating LNG terminals will be used to further alleviate pressure. Germans cut gas consumption amid war, warm weather – DW – 10/20/2022
 
biku324 said:
Georgia is behind the curve. In NM, PNM (our primary state electric provider), got 23.11% of power from renewables (wind, solar, geothermal), just under the 23.50% we get from coal, and far more than from the 14.27% we get from nuclear. Only NG tops renewables substantially with 35.5% of total power capacity. And that data is nearly 2 years old; an enormous wind farm near Corona and Duran is now online as of a few months ago. Energy Sources - pnmprod - pnm.com

Do recall that the spent fuel rod disposal problem is why nuclear isn't growing. A 24,000,000 year half-life seems problematic to some.
Click to expand...

Two points. "power capacity" is NOT the same as delivered power. The average capacity factor (capacity/delivered power)of the U.S. wind fleet hovers around 32% - 34%. So as soon as I see "installed capacity" or the like, i know the source is inflating the numbers.

You like cites so here you go. Wind Energy and Power Calculations | EM SC 470: Applied Sustainability in Contemporary Culture

Coal runs about 60% and nuclear is about 90%

Secondly, your number for SNF (Spent Nuclear Fuel) is off by a factor of 1000. The actinide you speak of, Pu239, has a half life of 24,000 years, not 24 million. :rolleyes:

Furthermore, that's energy wasted with present , thermal, reactors. Fast neutron reactors (Generation IV) burn those actinides and the resulting fission products are not detectable above background after 200 years.

We had the nuclear waste "problem" solved in the 80's with the Integral Fast Reactor. Conveniently scrapped before completion by Al Gore. The Russians however, are more forward thinking and have proceeded with fast reactor development with the goal of closing the fuel cycle. A closed fuel cycle only buries short lived fission products, not valuable fissionable or fissile materials.

You have to realize that present thermal reactors only use 5% of the available energy in a fuel pin. IMHO, it's an insane policy to bury the remaining 95%. A fast spectrum reactor can burn it all- note my EROI graph on the last page The technology with an EROI of 2000 is a fast reactor.:D

The reason nuclear isn't growing here is politics, not technology.
 
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biku324 said:
I found some old US-reported fear-mongering from July, but that was about wood for heat, not electricity production.

Doesn't matter now, according to the Bundesnetzagentur today:

According to the Bundesnetzagentur, Germany's federal network regulator, households and light industry in the country consumed less gas last week than the average for the same period between 2018-2021. The news followed a similar find from the week prior.

Agency President Klaus Müller said households consumed an average of 608 gigawatt-hours per day in calendar week 41, compared to 881 GWh/day in previous years — a drop of 31%.

To avoid an energy crisis this winter, German officials say citizens must cut gas consumption by at least 20%.

Beyond that, they say the country's liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals must be able to pump fuel into the national gas network at the start of the new year, and the annual winter drop in gas imports as well as exports to third countries must both be moderate.

Germany's reserves are currently at 96.49% of capacity, despite a halt to Russian gas imports in August — Russia had been Germany's main gas supplier until Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Deliveries from Belgium, Norway and the Netherlands, coupled with very low levels of exports to Austria, France and the Czech Republic, have all played in Germany's favor.

Floating LNG terminals will be used to further alleviate pressure. Germans cut gas consumption amid war, warm weather – DW – 10/20/2022
Click to expand...

Here's one about coal:
Kinda humorous- "we're phasing out coal- but tearing down this town to expand the mine". :rolleyes:

Germany to demolish village for coal, despite phaseout plans - E&E News

More to your point, Germany has decided to delay closing their remining nuclear plants due to the gas shortage. Guess those panels won't cover the gas shortfall. 🤣
 
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delcrossv said:
Two points. "power capacity" is NOT the same as delivered power. The average capacity factor (capacity/delivered power)of the U.S. wind fleet hovers around 32% - 34%. So as soon as I see "installed capacity" or the like, i know the source is inflating the numbers.

You like cites so here you go. Wind Energy and Power Calculations | EM SC 470: Applied Sustainability in Contemporary Culture

Coal runs about 60% and nuclear is about 90%

Secondly, your number for SNF (Spent Nuclear Fuel) is off by a factor of 1000. The actinide you speak of, Pu239, has a half life of 24,000 years, not 24 million. :rolleyes:

Furthermore, that's energy wasted with present , thermal, reactors. Fast neutron reactors (Generation IV) burn those actinides and the resulting fission products are not detectable above background after 200 years.

We had the nuclear waste "problem" solved in the 80's with the Integral Fast Reactor. Conveniently scrapped before completion by Al Gore. The Russians however, are more forward thinking and have proceeded with fast reactor development with the goal of closing the fuel cycle. A closed fuel cycle only buries short lived fission products, not valuable fissionable or fissile materials.

You have to realize that present thermal reactors only use 5% of the available energy in a fuel pin. IMHO, it's an insane policy to bury the remaining 95%. A fast spectrum reactor can burn it all- note my EROI graph on the last page The technology with an EROI of 2000 is a fast reactor.:D

The reason nuclear isn't growing here is politics, not technology.
Click to expand...

That's a lot of stuff that really doesn't say anything about the viability of EVs.

Well, if the half-life of currently used spent fuel rods is only 24,000 years, no big deal. Or 200 years with waste from newer plants (are there any commercial generating facilities in the US now? No?), just no problem. Fast Neutron Reactors | FBR - World Nuclear Association

Guess I just won't buy any Northwind 100C wind turbines if I don't like their actual output v maximum possible output.

And in the meantime, part of my kids' Leaf charging power in CA now comes from the Western Spirit Wind Project here in NM, with 377 turbines, (1.05 Gw); SunZia is building 950 more (3 Gw) in the Corona area.
 
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Wow….let’s settle down. This is becoming a bear caliber debate ;).

Battery and car tech is changing at a similar rate as PC power was in the day. What does that mean for car tech?
For the lifetime of most of us here we will live through the transition. We can take advantage of the tech (i.e this forum, ironically intended) if you wish and can still keep your roots. I love model 19’s, my friend is an analog LP freak. I own plastic nines and he streams music.

We both love our roots but live in the modern tech world.

Back to cars. My crystal ball says….If you a a local commuter, EV. Long range commuter with concerns about charging stations, Hybrid. Heavy work gas/diesel. At least before we get the long promised George Jetson flying car. :)

My wife has a hybrid and I have a truck, and we drive the hybrid the majority of the time.

As I said before…Pick the tool for the job/need. Technology gives you a lot of choices.

I don’t want rotary phones or VHS VCR’s.

The point I am going for is things change. It would be boring if didn’t.

"Today the only thing that is permanent is change." Charles H. Mayo, M.D. (1865-1939)
 
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