And the war is on.

[dockmurgw]

Trying to think of an analogy for some of the comments here, and I thought of this.
If I buy a 6 number lottery ticket and match 5 numbers for the $100k, I would be happy as a clam, I wouldn't consider it a failure because I didn't match 6 numbers for the $mil.

 

[fordson]

If this weren’t so deadly and dangerous, I’d compare their behavior to two ten year olds poking each other to see who got the last poke before mom steps in to smacks ‘em both…….

 

[biku324]

Announce victory. Walk away. Consider it a bloodless lesson.

I'm reminded of when the late Willard Lewis, then first Chief of Staff to brand-new Gov. Gary Johnson, said to him after his first bright idea fell apart - "Well, Governor; did we learn anything here today?".

 

[biku324]

If this weren’t so deadly and dangerous, I’d compare their behavior to two ten year olds poking each other to see who got the last poke before mom steps in to smacks ‘em both…….

Except for all of the other players just waiting to get in a few licks - ISIS, Kurds, Saudis, Pakistanis.

They invented bartering in this region. The only way a deal is truly 'done' is when you have your purchase, your hand is on your wallet, you're out of the market, they can't find your hotel, and you're out of their airspace on someone else's airline.

 

[dockmurgw]

When was the last time you heard of Iranians here protesting, raising hell on social media, or involved in criminal activity? Neither have I.


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Well...here are 11

MSN

 

[dockmurgw]

Stock Market appears to welcome the news. My 401k is happy.

I don't know if I can take any more of the "Bad" news...still on an upward trajectory, steeper than the mullahs' missiles!

 

[Rocketmedic40]

My liberal $0.10:
IRAN
1) Iran is a known malign actor in the region with a long history of support for terrorism as a method of asymmetric warfare. I’ve personally been shot at by rockets and mortars sourced from Iran; it’s no secret that Iran has supported, guided and perpetuated a lot of attacks on American and Western interests for the further meant of the regimes interests.

2) Iran is a repressive, authoritarian religious state which isn’t tolerant of Western values and views human rights expansion as an undesirable liberal/Western influence.

3) the Iranians might be unpleasant, but they’re also highly pragmatic, in that they have learned the lessons of history and primarily **just** want to be left alone.

4) our (US/UK) history with Iran is extremely problematic in that they can justifiably claim that we are the instigators of literally all of their dysfunctional behaviors and that we have provoked the vast majority of their sentinel attacks with our own provocations, to include the Vincennes shoot down.

Iranian chants of “death to America” and “death to Israel” are the functional equivalent of the Iranian right wing’s “MAGA”, but they’re also highly inflammatory and eventually get taken seriously. Iran was definitely going beyond the point of enrichment needed for civilian nuclear power and research, surreptitiously, and that looks like the quest for a nuclear weapon. I get it- nukes make sense in 2025. A nuke gets you respect and immunity from invasion; that’s the North Korea and Ukraine lesson. Iran is 92 million people with oil, rare earths, industry, decently-fertile fields and a central location nestled between multiple other powers that need those things; nukes make sense from a defensive perspective. Squaring that desire to have nukes with their expressed and demonstrated behaviors is really hard from our perspective; in isolation, I actually think the Trump strike was a good idea and will meaningfully disrupt their nuclear program IF expertly managed.

 

[biku324]

And then there's this from an hour ago:

ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE/TEL AVIV/ISTANBUL, June 24 (Reuters) - Explosions rang out in Tehran from Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying Israel had called off strikes at his command to preserve an hours-old ceasefire.
Two witnesses reached by telephone in the Iranian capital said they heard two loud explosions. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/

 

[ladder13]

Want to get in a pre LIke for the coming lock.

 

[dockmurgw]

It was an interesting thread, and then came the political hits. What a shame.

 

[brians356]

It was an interesting thread, and then came the political hits. What a shame.

"War is the continuation of politics by other means." Carl von Clausewitz
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[Rocketmedic40]

My opinion?

Pull all the direct military support from Israel and mend fences with the Turks, Lebanese, Syrians, Saudis and Iraqis and ultimately with the Iranians. Our own American national-security aims have been met, Iran is attempting to negotiate and their government is adversarial but rational, they understand further terror attacks will only result in their own demise via JDAM and chaos no one wants. America has a definite interest in the ME as a result of our economic needs and prior choices and we can’t ignore it, but Israel has very little of what we need and a lot of downside for very little gain. Israel has nuclear weapons, a potent military and neighbors who accept them- they aren’t at risk of genocide or even war. If a war did come, America/European influence would be far easier to muster for an intervention on Israel’s behalf if it’s not seen as the direct bidding of the Israeli right wing.

Diplomatically, I think we should call things like they are…war and violence and genocide and secret nukes and starvation are pretty unambiguous in the abstract, our diplomats and dealings and laws should reflect that. Parties trying to use those evils as tools should be forced to take a hard look in the mirror.

 

[smithman 10]

What surprises me is that there is never any mention of Israel's nuclear capability, tacitly acknowledged by everyone.

It seems quite clear to me that the end game to this decades-long fear of Iranian nukes, is this:

Should Israel ever become convinced that Iran (or any other hostile power with the desire to destroy their nation) has deliverable nuclear weapons and the ability and the will to strike Israel successfully with these nuclear weapons - then Israel will use their own nuclear weapons preemptively to eliminate this danger.

One only has to take note of the fact that, despite all the efforts by the U.S. and Israel, several of Iran's ballistic missiles have struck Tel Aviv this time around.

Again, should Israel become convinced that such a missile might carry a nuclear warhead, the world's second atomic war will have begun.

 

[Rocketmedic40]

What surprises me is that there is never any mention of Israel's nuclear capability, tacitly acknowledged by everyone.

It seems quite clear to me that the end game to this decades-long fear of Iranian nukes, is this:

Should Israel ever become convinced that Iran (or any other hostile power with the desire to destroy their nation) has deliverable nuclear weapons and the ability and the will to strike Israel successfully with these nuclear weapons - then Israel will use their own nuclear weapons preemptively to eliminate this danger.

One only has to take note of the fact that, despite all the efforts by the U.S. and Israel, several of Iran's ballistic missiles have struck Tel Aviv this time around.

Again, should Israel become convinced that such a missile might carry a nuclear warhead, the world's second atomic war will have begun.

And it won’t stay isolated. That’s the horrible side effect of starting a Forever War with one’s existence on the line…you have to win every time, you can never afford to lose. And when the potential for disaster is omnipresent….everyone is a threat.

My other $0.02? I think Israel is sprinting towards an authoritarian society. Thanks to their history, they’ve got valid reasons to fear, but their own actions have not necessarily endeared them to their neighbors either. Lebanese and Syrian and Palestinian children who will grow up picking American-made Israeli-fired shrapnel out of their bodies and mourning the losses of their families will have a significantly dimmer view of Israel than we as Americans or Israeli descendants of Jewish ancestry do; that level of hate is hard to comprehend but I think that the desire for revenge is at least somewhat valid. After all, what would we do if someone killed our children and called it “mowing the lawn”?

Eventually, Israel is going to run out of Palestinians to oppress. Either they’ll leave or they’ll starve or they’ll be deported. When that happens, Israel doesn’t have a lot of choices…they can’t expand without a war they won’t win, they will have alienated most of the liberal western world, and the domestic political forces that have delivered so much for them to date will still exist and their successes will fuel even more action. I personally think that Israel in a few years time is going to look a lot more like the fundamentalist regime in Iran, with a similar tolerance for dissent and a culture of fear that will be used as a cudgel against domestic political opponents. And that’s tragic.

 

[Onomea]

Rocketmedic40, I don't always agree with you. (I do sometimes.) But I enjoy your commentary. It's a fresh perspective. Glad you are here.

 

[Rocketmedic40]

Rocketmedic40, I don't always agree with you. (I do sometimes.) But I enjoy your commentary. It's a fresh perspective. Glad you are here.

Thanks!

That’s what the Internet is about.

I don’t want to get banned or political in here; it seems the owners of the board don’t want that smoke. Admittedly they are hard to separate at times, especially when I see things like my Senator trying to start a war on Israel’s behalf that any student of history knows will NOT be a successful one…I don’t want my kid cousins bleeding out in the foothills of Tehran in the 2040s because of our bad decisions today.

But it’s a gun forum, and I’ll leave it at that.

 

[brians356]

Pull all the direct military support from Israel and mend fences with the Turks, Lebanese, Syrians, Saudis and Iraqis and ultimately with the Iranians. ... Iran is attempting to negotiate and their government is adversarial but rational,

Rational? "Death to Israel! Death to the Great Satan America!" This is the chant that the Mullahs have been leading since 1979. And that has been the entire focus of their economic, political, and terrorist activity since then.

I smell Tucker lurking around here somewhere ...
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[Rocketmedic40]

Rational? "Death to Israel! Death to the Great Satan America!" This is the chant that the Mullahs have been leading since 1979. And that has been the entire focus of their economic, political, and terrorist activity since then.

I smell Tucker lurking around here somewhere ...
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We did support a coup against a popular government and install a puppet dictator with all the trimmings…there may be some legitimate grievances lurking around Iran against American influence.

 

[biku324]

Rational? "Death to Israel! Death to the Great Satan America!" This is the chant that the Mullahs have been leading since 1979. And that has been the entire focus of their economic, political, and terrorist activity since then.

I smell Tucker lurking around here somewhere ...
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'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel' in the region is akin to saying, "You stink," "Pound sand," or "Bite me" over here. It's just not language indicating imminent slaughter of millions. Different cultures, different meanings.

 

[brians356]

We did support a coup against a popular government and install a puppet dictator with all the trimmings…there may be some legitimate grievances lurking around Iran against American influence.

Orchestrated by the US and Britain in 1953. Fair enough, but that was 72 years ago.
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