Crypto, your opinion requested.

luvsmiths said:
That's a remarkably enthusiastic outlook. While it's true that traditional finance is engaging with Bitcoin ETFs and blockchain technology is finding more applications, that doesn't translate into guaranteed outcomes or validate every speculative forecast.

The notion of Bitcoin "only going up" and reaching "1 million a coin within 10 years" is a highly optimistic prediction, not an inevitability, and it ignores the asset's history of extreme volatility and significant downturns. Bitcoin, currently around $107,300, is still a long way from such a target, and the path to any high valuation will be fraught with economic shifts and regulatory uncertainties.

Claiming that "everything will probably be ran through Solana and Eth" significantly oversimplifies a complex and competitive technological landscape. There are dozens of other chains and scaling solutions vying for adoption, and the future infrastructure is far from settled, making such a definitive statement unfounded.

And frankly, dabbling in altcoins expecting "3-10X by the end of the year" is more akin to high-stakes gambling than a prudent investment strategy. The vast majority of altcoins are speculative plays with extremely high failure rates, illiquidity, and susceptibility to market manipulation. While stories of early adopters buying Bitcoin for cents and becoming multi-millionaires are indeed part of its history, those are unique, extreme outliers from a nascent, unregulated market. They are not a realistic template for present or future returns, nor do they diminish the immense capital risk involved today.

Finally, stating one is "all in" on any single asset reveals a high-conviction, concentrated bet. While that might feel empowering when things are going well, it fundamentally goes against the principle of diversification, which is the cornerstone of managing risk in any sound investment portfolio. A balanced perspective acknowledges the innovation but confronts the undeniable risks and the pervasive speculation that defines much of this market.

And speaking of significant short-term gains, rapid appreciation isn't exclusive to crypto. We've seen similar or even more explosive short-term rallies in the traditional stock market in a recent two month period: NVDA +60% to +65%, AMD +40% to +50%, VIGL Over +320%, CRWV Over +170%, OKLO Over 120%, DAVE Over +119%

Be "all in" on nothing.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
Click to expand...

All true. And that’s why research and conviction in your choices are important. And not “gambling” more than you’re willing to lose.
 
Muddyboot said:
What are the problems they cause?
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Jon651 said:
Crypto data centers are now HUGE, each essentially requiring the output of nearly an entire powerplant because as the computations required to "mine" and track crypto increases so do the power requirements to run (and cool) those computers. They are a stress on the local power utilities, require massive amounts of cooling capacity in terms of both atmospheric and fresh water heat exchange, have enormous back-up power requirements - all of which comes with dedicated infrastructure that cannot/will not ever be used for anything else. They are also very, very noisy. Oh, and lots of associated pollution and environmental issues.

All that for a few hundred construction jobs during build-up and a dozen staff positions after it's complete.
Click to expand...

Jon651 hit all the main downsides of a crypto mine except he over estimated the construction jobs and the staff jobs after the thing is running. It's more like a few dozen construction jobs and only two or three on site positions. On top of that a large percentage of them are foreign owned, mostly Chinese communist (they come here because they are banned in China).
 
Jon651 said:
Crypto data centers are now HUGE, each essentially requiring the output of nearly an entire powerplant because as the computations required to "mine" and track crypto increases so do the power requirements to run (and cool) those computers. They are a stress on the local power utilities, require massive amounts of cooling capacity in terms of both atmospheric and fresh water heat exchange, have enormous back-up power requirements - all of which comes with dedicated infrastructure that cannot/will not ever be used for anything else. They are also very, very noisy. Oh, and lots of associated pollution and environmental issues.

All that for a few hundred construction jobs during build-up and a dozen staff positions after it's complete.
Click to expand...
We had a small co-gen plant in our town. It supplied steam to local greenhouses that operated year round, and the electric was sold to the grid. The greenhouses shut down and the co-gen plant was sold.

The new owners are now using it for crypto mining. There are huge arrays of computers on the property housed in air conditioned huts. The NOISE is deafaning and can be heard for a half mile. The people living on the surrounding streets are up in arms. The town gooberment can't or won't shut the facility down. You can't sell a house in that neighborhood.

Now they are applying for permission to add some sort of nuclear power to the site so they can make more criptoes.
 

GypsmJim said:
We had a small co-gen plant in our town. It supplied steam to local greenhouses that operated year round, and the electric was sold to the grid. The greenhouses shut down and the co-gen plant was sold.

The new owners are now using it for crypto mining. There are huge arrays of computers on the property housed in air conditioned huts. The NOISE is deafaning and can be heard for a half mile. The people living on the surrounding streets are up in arms. The town gooberment can't or won't shut the facility down. You can't sell a house in that neighborhood.

Now they are applying for permission to add some sort of nuclear power to the site so they can make more criptoes.
Click to expand...
What is the source of the noise? AC fans?
 
Muddyboot said:
Soo what do you think, scam, the future of finance, somewhere in the middle? I have a small
amount invested but wonder where this will all go.

Let's not get heated on this one, to many threads have gone off the rails lately. No need
to knife your fellow Forum members, an opinion is just that.
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Understand that this started as in game currency in video games where real cash was exchanged to premium currency where premium items could be purchased in a pay to win MMO game model.
Before crypto, a bit of hacker talent could bypass this model. Crypto offers a hacker proof means of protecting the premium in game currency.

The concept jumped the rails about the time it turned into a pump and dump commodity solely for the sake of a temporary market performance.
About the only application I'd trust is a crypto product for rapid bank transfer.
Whatever crypto product fills that role will be the one to buy, if at all.
 
I don't quite understand it, so I don't invest in it. I do know that it exist in the internet sphere somewhere. My concern
is you won't be able to access it if
the internet goes down. I prefer precious metals. Something tangible that you can
hold in your hand.
 
At 80 I know very little about Crypto and am not going to waste my time attempting to learn more. I will not utilize it unless I absolutely have no other options.

Been playing/working the market for over 40 years and yes I'm no Warren Buffett but am doing OK for a retired pipefitter.
 
16thVACav said:
Economics should be a required course in both high school and college.
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Agree completely! It is amazing the number of economic fallacies that a huge percentage of people believe. Beyond that, the extraordinary depth of ignorance that some people have about economics is just mind boggling.

For those who want a basic education about the subject, I cannot recommend anything better than Thomas Sowell's "Basic Economics."
 
I haven't spent much time studying it, simply because I don't trust it. I remain fully of the opinion that, if you can make a lot of money fast, you can lose a lot of money fast. I don't invest in "sure things", or anything that has people raving about it. It seems to me that people who clamor on endlessly about such things are desperate to get as many converts as possible in order to "get rich quick." I'm certainly not a shrewd investor or a gambler; I've been rock-bottom poor and don't want to be again. I'll walk the safe path, I guess.
 
Stock market is doing great and real estate is doing great. I don’t see why.

If a guy is looking for somewhere to put some cash and has their finances right, I would invest in my hobby.

I’m thinking named hand ejectors.
 
Denverd0n said:
Lot of people mentioning that crypto is based on nothing and tied to nothing. Guess what? That also describes the U.S. dollar! We went off the gold standard a long time ago. Nowadays, the only reason a dollar has any more value than any other piece of paper is because people BELIEVE that it has value. That's it. Just exactly the same as any crypto currency.

The only meaningful difference is that dollars are widely enough distributed and used to have established a stable value in the marketplace. If any of the various crypto currencies ever get widely enough distributed and used to establish a stable value, then they will be no different than any other established currency. (Though at this point none are even remotely close.)
Click to expand...
I disagree with comparing a fiat currency such as the US dollar to cryptocurrency. While I believe the value of crypto is solely based on the emotions of those willing to buy/sell at any given time, the value of a fiat currency is based on the government's ability to generate income (taxes, tariffs, levies, borrowing, etc.) and then turn around and spend that money on the services it provides. Like it or not, it's a legitimate business model that can be researched, forecasted, and worked with. Nothing like that can be said about crypto.

Crypto consumes. Crypto costs - in terms of computing power, infrastructure, and power generation/usage. Looking at any of those metrics tells you nothing about how crypto has/is/should perform, it only tells me that if you track the trend there is a point at which we will not have enough of any/all of those resources it uses to keep it going indefinitely.
 
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ladder13 said:
I can take a dollar ( agree it’s fiat money) to a store and walk out with an item. Take your crypto coin to the same store and let me know what happens.
Click to expand...
While cryptocurrency is becoming more widely accepted in both uncommon and common places, it is a legit means of exchange. However, allow me to expound upon your point:

What people don't get is the scope of the infrastructure required for crypto to be useful and actually be used. Both the buyer and the seller need - a smartphone or computer, an online account with a (usually shady) company that "stores" your crypto for you, the internet and the ability to connect to it, and massive data centers to mine and track all the crypto that currently exists. If there is a break in any part of that chain your cryptocurrency is essentially useless.

When the power goes out after a storm, I can still buy stuff with cash...
 
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