Current Ammunition Situation

[cmansguns]

Even some cop agencies are having trouble

One of my daughter's is a LEO in North Carolina. She lamented last week that ammo issues were plaguing her agency too. Pre Covid they had two (2) annual qualifications with service pistols (her's a Glock 21 Gen 4, .45 acp); shotguns, cruiser rifles. Spring and Fall, day conditions and night exercises. After qualifications were over (approx 4 days/3 nights) they would have some old service revolver "fun" matches with .357, 9mm, etc.

This year, Spring 2021, one (1) 30 round qualification daytime course...talking about full cancellation of Fall qualifications.

She said the course was with FMJ "training" rounds and duty rounds (Speer Gold Dot HP's) are issued as required from a locked safe.

Same thing at her local in central NC.....nothing on shelves, sporadic finds of anything....all priced in the stratosphere.

 

[Rolex28]

Whenever I am asked to give an educated opinion I generally have to give an opinion but let me say this.... My education is a University degree in Economics and I have lived for 79+ years wandering around the earth. So here goes...
The prices of any commodity is always based on supply and demand..While I doubt ammo prices will ever go down to lowest levels they will fall slightly as supply increases... The big problem is that weapon sales are so high crating more weapons on the streets causing the demand for ammo to remain high.There are some estimates that there are roughly 800,000,000 weapons in the USA alone. Think about if everyone owner wanted 2-4 boxes of ammo? I don't even think we are discussing military or police department needs..

 

[Doug44]

Most of those 800,000 gun owners don't shoot on a weekly basis. There is plenty of ammo available on line if you want to pay the price. If all that ammo that is for sale on line was in our gun shops the prices would probably be less than half.

 

[Rolex28]

I mis-posted, 800,000,000 is the number. I think the OP was referring to price going down. How long are we willing to pay inflated prices? The problem for most gunshops is they they do not have the buying power that the big box stores or the big on line distributors have. Coupled with that the military and law enforcement will always big preferred customers.

 

[9mmPatriot]

I stopped by my local BassPro yesterday, they had a pretty assortment on the shelves at normal prices. Not "New Normal" either.

I've looked at a small shops and while some had ammo they were charging 3 to 4 times as much.

 

[SammyJoe]

It took a year before things returned to normal in 2012. No reason to think it will be any quicker this time. If anything your friend might optimistic. Due to material cost increases prices could settle to a point 10% higher than 2019 but they will come down.

I am with you on reloading. After 20 years of reloading I quit 10 years ago because I found it tedious. I still haven't got around to selling my reloading gear but at this point I would just try to make what I have last the rest of my life before I started reloading again.

Reloading is a very rewarding and interesting process, but it is very tedious.
I for one find reloading to be more of a laborious task simply because of my fear of producing a faulty load and potentially damaging my vintage revolvers. I use a Dillon 650 and the multi stage systems have always presented more opportunity for an error (for me personally that is the case)

I prefer single stage loaders, for me it is more of a simple and dumbed down process

(I have had two personal experiences with squibs, luckily I was trained on how to handle them correctly and avoided damage to the firearm)

I have lots of 38 standard pressure rounds stored up, mostly target loads, but I want to see things get back to normal.
I would much rather our situation return to normal so we can all get our hands on cheap and decent ammo.
-Sam

 

[Jon651]

My uneducated opinion says keep an eye on three things:

1. Ammo production numbers. When it starts to ease back that means the manufacturers are starting to slow production to keep the price elevated. That will be the "official" end of the drought but prices will stay elevated for as long as they think they can before the public backlash hits.

2. As demand and production eases, prices for raw materials will also start to sink - so keep an eye on the prices for copper and lead. When those start to sink and stay down (especially the "futures") that is another indicator.

3. When currently "rare" ammo starts to become available in bulk; for example (and I've railed about this before), .380 is twice the price or more than .45 yet is half the size, and as rare as an honest politician. When the manufacturers start to dedicate more production to ammo such as .380 and selling it in bulk that is another indicator.

Again, just my opinion!

 

[SammyJoe]

PSA,
Federal currently has 9mm FMJ and some Defense HPs in stock on their website now! $26 a box!

Still no 38+P or 357Mag but I will keep my eyes peeled for them.

Shop products in Handgun today | Federal Premium

(I hope it is appropriate for me to link the site, if it is not please let me know and I will remove the link)
Thanks everyone and go grab you some 9 if you need it!
-Sam

 

[JohnHL]

I believe the shortage IS the result of supply and demand.

A demand is created whenever consumers perceive their access to a commodity is or will be restricted.

I won't discuss "d" vs. "r" policies, but every shortage I have witnessed has been presaged by anti-gun politicians/restrictions achieving ascendancy or power.

When people finally believe their Rights and Freedoms are a little more secure and a little less threatened, the demand will subside and the supply will increase.

That's human psychology, not politics.

John

 

[PALADIN85020]

I predict that ammo will become the new bartering medium at gun shows - "I'll give you two boxes of .357s for that registered magnum!"

John

 

[luvsmiths]

A Year, huh? Your friend is an Optimist.

Hello All,
Had a very upsetting conversation with a buddy of mine today about the current ammo shortage/inflation situation we are all subjected to currently.
He seems to think that we are going to have to put up with this for close to a year before it get back to normal. By normal I mean the good ole days of $19 boxes of decent target ammo.

Does anyone here on the forum have a very educated opinion on just when we will be able to acquire ammo regularly and at a price that is not INFLATED?

I really would love to hear everyone's take on this, I need some good information because I am getting too lazy for all this tedious reloading business. Ha
Thanks
-Sam

 

[max503]

Been seeing 22 ammo at Walmart. That's a good sign.

 

[Golphin]

The price of copper has doubled in just the last few months and like other things may become harder to get. The green people are making decisions now and a lot of copper goes into the batteries to run the "new" stuff along with environmental rules and regulations on the mines and producers of copper. I will be surprised if we every see ammo prices anywhere close to what they were 18 months ago.

 

[Jon651]

Very much one.

What is being overlooked is the political portion of this shortage. The President, Vice President, Attorney General, head of the BATF are all on record as supporting more gun control.

The BATF last week announced some policy changes. They have not announced what the new policy for pistol braces will be.

It is important to remember that never let a crisis go to waste. The 2022 elections will be our next chance to change the makeup in Congress and the pro-gun Representatives and Senators will not take office until January, 2023. The window between November, 2022 and January, 2023 could be very dangerous if the outgoing Congress votes for new gun restrictions since they are not to be still in Office to deal with any voter anger.

If the anti-gun Democrats remain in power then it will be 3 1/2 more years before there will be another chance to get pro-2A President and Congress in power again.

So the earliest is 1 1/2 years and the latest is...

The politics you describe only stir up the gun-buying public to panic buy and hoard. What we are seeing is a reaction to what may happen, no from any actual action on the part of the feds. It's fear-based, but people seem to forget that the last president wasn't as gun-friendly as many like to think yet it was the salad days when it came to prices and availability. I believe pushing a political "Us and Them" narrative only feeds our fears and makes things worse for everyone in the long run. There aren't 60 votes in the US Senate to make many - if any - changes.

Honestly, if any political group wanted to cripple our 2A rights they would regulate and tax ammunition into non-existence, or worse yet start requiring liability insurance and let the private insurance industry ruin our sport - and never have to even mention the 2nd Amendment in the process.

 

[THE PILGRIM]

When I see a caliber that I shoot at the current day price, I buy some.
Like a couple of weeks ago when I bought that Glock 43x out on Base.
They had 6-8 diff calibers but no 9mm.
So I bought 2 boxes of 223.
Really would have preferred some 9, but nothing wrong with a little more 223.

 

[LVSteve]

It took about that long after Sandy Hook (at least where I live), so I wouldn't be too surprised if your buddy is right.

 

[smoothshooter]

I think things are starting to get slightly better. I can actually find some ammo on the shelf here and there and even found a pound of 2400 at an LGS the other day. It's going to take a while, but I am convinced we've seen the worst of it and that ammo will return to pre covid prices. The people who swear the days of cheap ammo are over also said that back in 2012. Frequently they also have ammo they'd like to sell....
But that my opinion, and worth what you paid for it....

The political climate is different now than it was in 2012.
The anti-gun forces are playing it much smarter this time
around.

 

[MyDads38]

A few weeks ago, one of our local gun shops went out of business. It was a small shop operated by a husband and wife. They were nice, knowledgeable, fair on prices and were always busy. They went out of business without a word to the general public. The last time I stopped in, they had no ammo, about 8 long guns and 1 or 2 handguns. Some holsters and a few accessories. I did a lot of business with them and they always treated me fairly.

The small shops are struggling the most. I hope this ends soon, or some of the other 3 shops may close as well. Just my Sunday rant...

 

[SammyJoe]

Sad...

A few weeks ago, one of our local gun shops went out of business. It was a small shop operated by a husband and wife. They were nice, knowledgeable, fair on prices and were always busy. They went out of business without a word to the general public. The last time I stopped in, they had no ammo, about 8 long guns and 1 or 2 handguns. Some holsters and a few accessories. I did a lot of business with them and they always treated me fairly.

The small shops are struggling the most. I hope this ends soon, or some of the other 3 shops may close as well. Just my Sunday rant...

We are facing the same situation right now in my area. Mom and Pop's gun shops are struggling. My dad said that he has seen this before during past scares. I remember as a kid my father and I would frequent a couple LGSs, those are LONG gone now. More will fall before this current scare is through I fear....
-Sam

 

[PatriotX]

I predict that ammo will become the new bartering medium at gun shows - "I'll give you two boxes of .357s for that registered magnum!"

John

I bartered some ammo into a gun last show.

Not quite the ratio you're proposing, but….