. . . My thoughts on the subject, yours may vary........
I would agree with you Jim. I do, however, offer quite a bit of credit to Supica/Nahas valuations. First of all, the book states a very clear basis for condition and classifications, one that I rely on to value my collection. Second, Jim has a very long association with selling S&Ws when he owned the Old Town Station enterprise. Third, all members here had the chance to edit the values of the SCSW4 before publication, offering the most credible source for S&Ws out there. Last, I have compared countless entries, auctions, and online S&Ws and almost without fail, SCSW4 is and remains just right on average values. A collector or buyer that does not believe anything published by anyone as credible or accurate ends up being the one that pays way too much for way too many guns.
A case in point pertain to four Model 1 1/2 Tip-Ups I recently sold on Gunbroker. Purchased 25+/= years ago and all were impulse purchased. Paid the asking price just to own them. Well, they ended up residing in the back corner of my safe for many years until I decided to dispose of them. They were typical well used specimens and all had the almost standard non-lockup issues that I never got around to fix. Final prices realized were barely above what I paid for them 25 years ago. Buying without relying on any resources other than one's gut feeling and wits often end up returning zilch when sold - or less.
As James stated, you can find lots of examples of guns selling high when stated value is low, but one has to be conscientious about averaging sales and comparing to known sources. The only comment I would add to what James stated above is that the speed of when someone finds and buys a certain example of a particular model or configuration often dictates the price paid, but not the value. Value is long term average and not spur of the moment purchase. I have a recurring post on "What Was This Buyer Thinking" from time to time on the Forum. The numbers can be astronomical, but don't change the value of the item one dime.
I often work on the other end of the spectrum, taking my time listing, researching, and valuing guns that I want. I then start looking for the best price I can find, so many of my purchases fall well below stated valuation. It might take me a year or more to find what I am looking for, but I can be sure I bought it at a price that I will have no problem turning a profit if and when I sell.
