I've looked at the change in 9mm low to high prices.
I bought cases of 9mm when it was $0.18/rnd for 115gr FMJ target ammo. I knew such prices could not last.
I did not buy when within a few months prices jumped to over $0.50 rnd, but I watched for the supply/price to change downward. During past scenarios, high prices last about a year, the downward trend then heads toward a price about 1/3 more expensive than the last lowest price. The drop is fairly fast at first, then slows down. The downward trend can last about two years, unless there is some unpredictable major fear mongering that crops up.
The pricing trend and your immediate/future needs dictate a comfortable price. I don't ever expect to see my 9mm range ammo below 20/rnd again. Material cost increases and inflation have guaranteed that. So, I'm assuming the new lowest possible is $0.25/rnd. At that price I will buy cases.
However, the downward curve of prices from 50+ cents to 25 cents ea. falls dramatically at first, then more slowly. We saw 9mm prices stuck in the mid-low 40's most of last year. Now mid-low thirties are here. I have bought some. My inventory is now at about 80% of what I like, but with my shooting, it will be down to 65-70% in a few months when 9mm gets in the high $0.20's per round. That's my next buy signal.
For you with no reserves, $0.32/rnd delivered to your door (Norma) would be my buy signal to lay in up to 50% of your total desired inventory, as you can afford it. Compared to $0.50/rnd a year ago, that's not bad.
Smile every time you can get it for $0.27/rnd all in. Buy all you can, then "dollar cost average" your total purchases, and you will probably find you are shooting for <$0.30/rnd. My DCA is currently about $0.23/rnd.
Reloading is always a consideration, but it experiences many supply shortages during tough times. All in, for the ability to get you through an ammo drought, you will have $1,000 or more invested in equipment and supplies, you must have a clean, safe space for everything, and one thing almost all reloaders fail to add in to their costs is their time. There is time involved with acquiring components as well actual time at the bench.
I stopped reloading when my family time became a larger part of my life. Also my career took off, so my hourly time value increased and my free time decreased. When I stopped reloading, I figured my hourly time value was >$30/hr. Cost wise, reloading for cheaper ammo made no sense. Time wise, buying ammo made much more sense for me. It's hard enough to get the time I like to go shooting. Reducing that time by having to load ammo to shoot sucks, for me.
At rifle range of 300 yds a 124 gr FMJ started at 1200 FPS or more arrives at over 800 FPS. I would bet that a lot of WW2 soldiers got a rude awakening when they thought they were out of harm's way of the Nazi's puny pistol ctg sub guns at a few hundred yards.
