I found this article just now - average shots fired in a SD shooting, rounds onboard & distances - an interesting take!

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I just found this article a few minutes ago and though it to be interesting enough to post here. I know there are always discussions here about the number of rounds contained in a specific pistol or revolver ( the will be it enough discussions ) and many quote the statistics of SD shootings recored. Carrying a reload or not is also a popular subject brought up as well. I am not posting this to convince anyone set in their ways or change anyones daily EDC habits, I just thought this might be a "food for thought" article that is somewhat well written.
 
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Interesting article and just because there is an average number for something does not mean that the average number will apply in your situation. I practice at 25 yards, even with my Model 640-1. Averages indicate that it is quite unlikely that I will ever have to draw my defensive sidearm. Averages indicate that it is even less likely that I will have to fire it for defensive purposes. Averages also indicate that I will likely never need to use a fire extinguisher, but twice, so far, I have needed to use one.
 
Have read several such reports and IMHO they are spot on. Pistol shooting is a skill developed with time and $$$, there is No way around it. Granted some people are “ naturals” in pistol shooting and after years of instructing women are many of the naturals. They seem to listen and absorb better than most men.
Been shooting 1911s at 100 yards for many years but declining eye sight has affected it recently. Used to shoot B-27s at 100 yards and with some 357, 50 S&W we shot at around 200 yards. Lots of fun and we reloaded.
 
Years ago I was at a match and as a side match afterwards they had a 2" snub nose shoot at 100 yards. The targets were the orange clay trap and skeet birds sitting on the mound of sand. Believe it or not after a few shots walking the bullets out, many of us were able to hit them with Kentucky windage & elevation of course - lol. I was shooting my M60-7, 2" bbl. Some guys
were clueless as to how to aim.
 
Years ago I was at a match and as a side match afterwards they had a 2" snub nose shoot at 100 yards. The targets were the orange clay trap and skeet birds sitting on the mound of sand. Believe it or not after a few shots walking the bullets out, many of us were able to hit them with Kentucky windage & elevation of course - lol. I was shooting my M60-7, 2" bbl. Some guys
were clueless as to how to aim.
To add a little to what you stated... If handgun shooters practice at longer distances enough to become proficient, the short distances become far easier. Few seem to realize that.
 
As folks who work with me get tired of hearing, “averages are interesting, but they are not very useful.” It would be interesting to see the entire data set of shootings that lead to the “7 yard average distance” and “3-4 shots fired on average.”

Distributions are made up of averages, minimums, maximums, and standard deviations. As an engineer, you do not design to averages, or you’ll never be able to achieve the maximum. (Automation engineer here…)

How this impacts my practice is, I practice at longer ranges and I practice reloading. I typically carry at least one reload. Am I ready for “the maximum “? Probably not, but I’m ready for what is more than one standard deviation above the mean. :)

(Establishing my nerd cred, I guess.)
 
This. If you can hit at 25 you darn sure can at 5. The reverse is NOT true,
I'd agree to some extent - BUT shooting for SD at 5 yards is a different type of shooting. I'd call it more point shooting than true aiming and therefore both should be practiced. Many can point shoot at 5 yards with more than descent enough accuracy and at speeds that would be good for close and personal SD purposes. Others struggle!

For 20+ years I shot S.A.S.S. Cowboy Action Shooting competition. It really was really great training since we drew and shot our Six Guns as fast as we could at close up steel plates by point shooting and there were also long distance pistol targets at 30 - 50 feet as well which required treu aiming - but again we were shooting against the clock for accuracy, speed and lowest time. For every miss there were 5 points added to your time and so your score was made up with a combo of shortest time and best accuracy. There are many times they do not go hand in hand.
 
To add a little to what you stated... If handgun shooters practice at longer distances enough to become proficient, the short distances become far easier. Few seem to realize that.
Back in my USPSA competition days, I had the good fortune to routinely practice with and shoot matches with a deputy U.S. Marshall who was a firearms instructor with the Marshall service. I was quite proud of the accuracy at which I could shoot at 25 yards using a 1911-A1 built for competition. He examined my targets and agreed that it was good, but I should be that good shooting 50 yards instead of 25. I started practicing at 50 yards with that pistol and yes, my match scores did improve, both at close distance targets and at targets as far as 75 yards.
 
One thing about averages is that they include lower numbers, but also a lot of higher numbers. People who like to quote the Tueller “defense” seldom consider that the original numbers included both cops and “bad guys” who were both slower and faster than 1.5 seconds. And I know the Turller study is not a defense, but a good drill, though some people don’t.

I thought it was a good article that more people need to read but won’t. Anyone carrying a small handgun, for example should not be carrying it because of the “averages,” but because concealment is extremely important. But they should not be carrying until they learn how to shoot.

The 50-yard line was a great training tool for law enforcement back in the day. To qualify expert with the Border Patrol until the mid 90s, an agent had to place pretty much all of shots in the ten ring of a B-27 out to 50 yards. DEA was the last 50-yard qualification holdout, keeping a sting of fire at that distance until the second decade of the 21st Century. While the target was Q with less precise scoring area, it still forced application of marksmanship skills. When agencies got away from the 50, the 25-yard line became the next topic for whining about. FBI, DEA, and Tom Givens of Rangemaster have reported average engagement distances all under 15 feet. Tom Givens has reported his students firing an average of three rounds in actual, post class incidents. Tom appears to still carry a full sized pistol with a couple extra 17-round magazines and maybe a backup revolver.

I personally see the rationale of a citizen keeping a higher capacity, full sized handgun with an attached WML at hand for home defense. Seems that when the trend for home invasion is multiple offenders, 15+ rounds is warranted. Same for business operators, especially in high risk businesses. Walking around on the street, working at a not-so-permissive job, eating at a local restaurant, shopping, biking or jogging, etc, weight and bulk factor into concealment considerations.

But regardless, make sure to leave the house with enough extra ammo, extra mag for at least one reload.
 
Your location, ethnicity, age, state of health and gender affect your chances of being an intended victim. As can your situational awareness. Predators aren't looking for fair fights. By the time you get to the point where you actually have to shoot, your probability digit has a few zeros to the right of the decimal point. Best not to talk about "average", let alone bet your life on it. To quote a famed trainer, "The only 2 times you'll have too much ammo is if you're on fire or drowning."

With all due respect, while there's a slew of definitions of "point shooting", you need some visual reference of where the guns pointed. A flash sight picture is the answer (unless maybe you really can reach out and touch someone-but that's generally not a good idea). You need to hit vital areas and even that doesn't guarantee a quick stop.
 
Keep in mind the "article" is just an opinion piece, no facts no data, no real context, no looking at the overall picture. All those things matter. But overall I'm in agreement with it, with some guard rails put in place.

I do agree a spare magazine makes sense for a semi auto pistol as dropping the magazine, racking the slide and loading a new magazine is the fastest, and sometimes only way to clear some types of malfunctions if tap, rack, bang fails.

While I always try to send at least 200 rounds down range with a new carry gun or carry load before carrying it, and expend my carry ammo on regular range trips to keep it fresh and ensure continued reliability in the gun, stuff can still happen.

Similarly, with a revolver, I carry a reload more often than not, just because.

Every administrative reload should also be done as a tactical reload (pistol or revolver) so that the movements are well practiced, well ingrained in muscle memory and as close to automatic as possible under extreme stress.

Let's emphasize however that if you realistically see yourself getting in a situation where you are going to need more than a single spare magazine, particularly a high capacity magazine, for anything other than clearing a jam, you need to take a serious look at your larger life choices and why you are going places that pose that level of risk.

Let's also not go around with the justification "that's what the police carry". When I stopped being a LEO and became an armed citizen, I also stopped going into bad places and dangerous situations looking for bad guys. As an armed citizen I use good situational awareness to avoid situations that might realistically require more than a hand full of shots. Even as an LEO I would not walk into those types of places armed with just a handgun.

In short, let's maybe hold off on arming ourselves for an apocalypse / mall ninja scenario with three high capacity magazines, etc, on a day to day basis and insisting it's necessary or prudent.

If you choose to do that, that's just fine. Just be honest with yourself about the downsides. It's heavy, its uncomfortable, and it's not going to be nearly as concealed as you think it is.

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More importantly, rather than carrying an excessive load out, focus on learning to shoot accurately, at speed, and under stress.

The old saw is "smooth is slow and slow is fast" and while it's a bit of a well worn line and cliche, it's still accurate.

I see folks focusing on speed without mastering the basics of grip, sight alignment and trigger control. They'll invariably site statistics like 80 percent of officers don't even recall using their sights in an officer involved shooting. I don't doubt that's true.

However, let's not forget it reflects the reality that most officers are not gun people, do not shoot outside of what is required to qualify. Let's also keep in mind qualification courses have never been great at reflecting real world shoots, and over the last few decades have gotten worse in terms of accuracy requirements.

My recommendation and what I teach people who want to learn to shoot well in a tactical situation is to start with the basics, then add in speed, then add in movement.

1) Look at the target, and slowly bring the gun up from the holster or from the low ready position.

2) As the handgun rises into your line of sight, place the front sight on target;

***if you can't see the front sight at all, or it's not anywhere close to the rear sight, you need a set of grips or another handgun that fits you better before you even bother shooting.

3) With the front sight blade on target (precisely on the spot you want to bleed), pause and align the rear sights, and then hold that alignment while you smoothly press the trigger.

4) Rinse and repeat (still slowly) a few hundred rounds until you find the rear sights are consistently already aligned with the front blade as it comes up into your line of sight. At this point you have developed an effective grip and the muscle memory needed to repeat it without thinking about it that naturally aligns the sights for you. At this point you are focused on the front sight on target and the 'pause' is just a very brief tiny fraction of a second to confirm alignment and front blade position.

5) At this point you start progressively increasing the speed, while still focusing on keeping the rounds tightly grouped. This can include controlled pairs and Tueller drills

6) However you also want to expend about 10 percent of your rounds slow fire at progressively more distant targets at 25, 50 and then 100 yards to maintain the focus on accuracy, as well as learn how effective a handgun can still be at those ranges, particularly a duty sized handgun.

7) once you're down around 1.0-1.3 seconds from the holster to first shot on target, start integrating movement towards cover, getting off the X, etc.

8) If there is a club in your area that hosts practical pistol matches, start attending. Don't bring a race gun, rather just bring what you carry for self defense. The focus should not be on winning, but rather on improving. The courses of fire and in particular the rules about what targets to engage first and what order to engage targets when multiple hits per target are required can vary from unrealistic to downright stupid, but it does add mental pressure, on top of the pressure that comes from time stress and other people watching you shoot. Over the years I have watched several police officers and federal agents significantly improve their skills using their duty gun, without ever being in the upper half of the field. Winning isn't the point, learning to shoot well under pressure is.

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I continue to be amazed by people who keep asking what range they should zero their self defense handgun at. They don't seem to realize the trajectory of the average self defense handgun is effectively flat out to 50 yards.

Take for example, a typical 9mm 124 gr bullet with a BC around .120 launched at a fairly sedate 1050 fps from a handgun with a .5 inch sight height. If it shoots point of aim at 12 yards, it will also be shooting point of aim at around 25-26 yards. At 5 to 7 yards it will be .2" low. At 50 yards it will be 1.6 low.

Past that you'll start to see some drop with 6" at 70 yards and 12" at 100 yards. Shooting at a bottle target or B-27 target at 70 yards? Just send it. 100 yards? just hold at the top of the neck.

Using a red dot with a 1" sight height? No big deal. You'll be .5" low close in, be .5" flatter at 50 yards and about an inch flatter at 100 yards.

A bigger issue is using a load and or adjusting the sights to get the point of aim fairly close at 25 yards. Everything else at any reasonable self defense range will then take care of itself.
 
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