The Russians have gone in

[bigwheelzip]

Ukraine is littered with apparently undamaged Russian trucks...

Highlighted by the story of Alex and "Bunny". Alex was on a sniper team when he claimed an abandoned Russian tank for himself, nicknamed it Bunny, and made himself a tank commander.

Ukrainian soldier uses Russian tank against them - CNN Video



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[bigwheelzip]

Sweden's ruling party, the Social Democrats, have today approved a NATO membership bid.

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[LVSteve]

Finland has officially announced their intent to join NATO. Sweden is expected to follow suit shortly.

About 35 years ago we were in northern Finland wilderness, and out of curiosity took a road that went to the Russian border. Miles before the border, our detour ended when we encountered a serious military roadblock that established a no-man's-land. These folks have spent generations prepping for this fight.

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In the mid-90s there was a UK made TV show called "Borders" IIRC. It went to places all over the world where there were odd situations at the borders between countries. When they did Finland they had to get permission from the Russians to be with 10 km or 20 km (cannot recall which) of the border. This was because the camera crew were from a NATO country and by treaty were excluded from the border zone. The crew also visited the spot where Finland, Norway and Russia meet. Apart from a pyramid shaped marker, there was nothing there.

Europe had a lot of funky places like that in Cold War Europe. Only Danish citizens had free access to the island of Bornholm in the Baltic. Military or government from other NATO nations weren't supposed to go there, again, by a post WWII treaty. Looking at the strategic position of Bornholm, you may guess how well that probably worked.

 

[UncleEd]

As of Friday a good sign, the US
military chiefs have been in
contact with Russian counterparts.

Intercommunication had stopped
with the February invasion.

 

[S&WIowegan]

Bitter lesson

Putin is learning the lesson all insane dictators must face. You can fill all the top jobs with sycophantic loyalists, BUT they may very well be cowards, fools and incompetent. If Putin goes completely insane, lets hope at least one 'loyalist' puts a bullet in his head.

 

[swsig]

Things seem to be stepping up military-wise. There are usually few, if any, military flights appearing on FlightRadar24 around North Texas on Sundays. Currently there are seven Air Force Talon fighter trainers flying around here, plus a Navy E-6B, plus a Marine Corps C-130. And finally, a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane just flew over my house on its way to DFW Airport.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Reported today, the Italian government will provide new military aid to Ukraine including mortars, Stinger MANPADS, machine guns, ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and FH70 155mm towed howitzers.

Extract of today's report from the Ukrainian Army:

According to the report, on May 15, in the area of responsibility of the Operational and Tactical Group East, Russian troops continued to carry out offensive operations, with Ukrainian soldiers repelling five enemy attacks in the past day.

As a result of the fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 84 Russian invaders, a tank, four infantry fighting vehicles, a motor vehicle, a helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle of the enemy.


Italian FH70 Howitzer:

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[Onomea]

Putin's military engineers put a pair of temporary Russian pontoon bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River near Bilohorivka in the Luhansk oblast on May 8th.

Two days later, a satellite image collected by geospatial intelligence firm BlackSky shows the wreckage of the Russian pontoon bridges on May 10 shortly after a Ukrainian artillery barrage hit the surrounding area.

Reports are that almost an entire Russian battalion was destroyed in the barrage. The photo is clear enough to see some of the damage, including the black area of the river's edge in the lower right, being strewn with burned-out armor hulks.

Edit: Apparently, a unit of Russians crossed the river before the bridge was destroyed, leaving them cut off, judging by this report from the field;
"Clean-up ops continue on the company of Russian troops that cross the Donets."

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The NYT reports today that news of this debacle has pierced the Russian disinformation wall. Russian bloggers, some with millions of followers, to date pro-war, have picked up on this debacle, and are castigating Russian military leadership.

An excerpt:

"I've been keeping quiet for a long time," Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now.

"The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two."

Mr. Podolyaka ridiculed the Kremlin line that the war is going "according to plan." He told his viewers in a five-minute video that, in fact, the Russian Army was short of functional unmanned drones, night-vision equipment and other kit "that is catastrophically lacking on the front."

"Yes, I understand that it's impossible for there to be no problems in war," he said. "But when the same problems go on for three months, and nothing seems to be changing, then I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation."

Good to see the truth getting through to ordinary Russians.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Good to see the truth getting through to ordinary Russians.

Hard for us to know what the facts on the ground are, but so many international sources report misery for the Russians, that it seems inevitable for eye-witnesses returning home to overwhelm the propaganda.

I've seen reports from multiple sources that Russian soldiers are wounding themselves rather than re-enter the Ukraine meat grinder. If true, morale must be awful.





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[oldbrownhat]

The WaPo reports today that news of this debacle has pierced the Russian disinformation wall. Russian bloggers, some with millions of followers, to date pro-war, have picked up on this debacle, and are castigating Russian military leadership.

An excerpt:

"I've been keeping quiet for a long time," Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now.

"The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two."

Mr. Podolyaka ridiculed the Kremlin line that the war is going "according to plan." He told his viewers in a five-minute video that, in fact, the Russian Army was short of functional unmanned drones, night-vision equipment and other kit "that is catastrophically lacking on the front."

"Yes, I understand that it's impossible for there to be no problems in war," he said. "But when the same problems go on for three months, and nothing seems to be changing, then I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation."

Good to see the truth getting through to ordinary Russians.

Same story in the NY Times, plus this:

Growing evidence of a military disaster on the Donets pierces a pro-Russian bubble.

"...The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded...

On May 11, the Russian command reportedly sent about 550 troops of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Donets River at Bilohorivka, in the eastern Luhansk region, in a bid to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne...

...The Institute for the Study of War, citing analyses based on the publicly available imagery, indicated that there could have been as many as 485 Russian soldiers killed or wounded and more than 80 pieces of equipment destroyed....

Further from Mr. Podolyaka:

A tally of Russian losses from the infamous failed Russian Siverskyi Donets river crossing near Bilohorivka.
In total 73 Russian equipment were destroyed/abandoned, including a BTG worth of AFVs.

Great thanks to J.P. for counting and sending it to me.

1/2#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/FyKtPogG8Z
— BlueSauron (@Blue_Sauron) May 12, 2022

​

Another popular blogger, who goes by Starshe Eddy on Telegram, wrote that the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to "not idiocy, but direct sabotage."

And a third [blogger] Vladlen Tatarski, posted that Russia's eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also "these generals" and their tactics.

"Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won't have had any military reforms," Mr. Tatarski wrote.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Good to see the truth getting through to ordinary Russians.

Still an uphill battle, though.

From the NYT:

...But to many Russians, defeat in the war in Ukraine remains inconceivable.
The majority of Russians, especially the older generations and the working classes, believe state propaganda, which fills their television screens with images of seemingly unstoppable columns of Russian tanks advancing through Ukrainian countryside and virulent talk shows that paint the conflict as a new chapter in their country's struggle against Nazism...
​

And from a recent "First Person" story from the CBC, from a young woman who came to Ottawa in 2014:

I unlearned a lifetime of Russian propaganda to figure out what information to believe

"...As soon as I posted a message condemning the war on VK (a Russian social media platform similar to Facebook), my uncle replied by defending the actions of the Russian military.

"You are even more brainwashed by your media than I am by mine," his comment began.

"You think I support the war, but you are deeply mistaken. I'm against it. I also stand for freedom in Ukraine but without Nazis in its government head. Your great-grandmother, my grandmother, fought in the Great Patriotic War and exterminated the German occupiers, and you are defending these same fascists right now. I am ashamed of you. Too bad you don't understand what's going on."

My dad was dismayed to see what his brother had written. I was, too...

...Many of my friends and relatives are in an information blockade, so I had to try to talk to my uncle again.
After a long conversation, my uncle stated that he was done talking to me about the subject.
My last messages still remain unread."​

 

[Onomea]

Still an uphill battle, though....

Agreed. But I am hopeful that we are now beginning to see cracks in the information containment wall, and that it will eventually shatter.

The sooner the better.

As BWZ notes above, surely more and more eyewitnesses to the carnage are reporting what they see and experience in Ukraine to those they know back in Russia.

Went back and checked. Article was from NYT, not WaPo. I stand corrected.

 

[Golddollar]

Yes, and something else I'd imagine is in a Finnish defender's favor is the huge number of lakes creating natural choke points to funnel Russian attackers through.

Back during the Winter War in 1939 the Finns were concerned about where they would bury all the Russians.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Highlighted by the story of Alex and "Bunny". Alex was on a sniper team when he claimed an abandoned Russian tank for himself, nicknamed it Bunny, and made himself a tank commander.

"What's it gonna do? Nibble yer battalion?"

 

[bigwheelzip]

"What's it gonna do? Nibble yer battalion?"

Well, kinda. "Bunny" destroyed at least two dozen Russian military vehicles and several tanks. So hopefully it keeps on nibbling.


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[oldbrownhat]

Well, kinda. "Bunny" destroyed at least two dozen Russian military vehicles and several tanks. So hopefully it keeps on nibbling.

Yes, I had watched the interview with its "keeper." Pretty impressive guy- officially an IT professional, then a sniper, now a tank commander, with his own private tank, no less. For a largely makeshift army, they are doing amazingly well. And so convenient of the retreating Russians to leave some hardware behind for them to use.

 

[bigwheelzip]

For a largely makeshift army, they are doing amazingly well.

Said Cornwallis to George III.



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[oldbrownhat]

Said Cornwallis to George III.

Amateurs built the Ark. Professionals built the Titanic.

 

[Rudi]

The Russians are as patriotic as anyone else, maybe more so. Hard to admit to yourself when your country has messed up BIG TIME and your leader is a dope.

 

[oldbrownhat]

The Russians are as patriotic as anyone else, maybe more so. Hard to admit to yourself when your country has messed up BIG TIME and your leader is a dope.

I was talking with my gf about "the situation" in Russia. Her mother is Russian (born in China of Russian expats who escaped the Revolution). They visited Russia in 1994 and "it was a mess." (Her mother wondered who the middle aged women were, seemingly begging in the streets. "Prostitutes", she was told In reality, just desperate to make ends meet.)

Centuries of czars, then the Communists... they were lost and in chaos after the fall of communism. Yeltsin proved a dead loss and Putin was brought in to straighten things out. And, like Hitler in Germany, he did. But.... Apparently he made a deal with the oligarchs to turn a blind eye as long as they didn't oppose him. But he's become power hungry and desperate to hold out until the 2024 election. And he's stuck between a rock and a hard place with the Ukrainian disaster. She feels he's not crazy, but a pragmatist autocrat who has painted himself into a corner.

She says "I'm not really Russian" (grew up in Australia, then Canada) but it's in her blood and she says the situation there breaks her heart. (I'd never heard this before.) She is pretty sure that sooner or later, Russia will dissolve into a bunch of semi-autonomous states, It is so vast - spanning 11 time zones - and perhaps ungovernable as a nation. There is the "western" bit we are familiar with, but also vast tracts of (mineral-rich) Siberia, which is largely Asiatic. She is Russian enough that she has an inevitable pessimistic streak, though.