The Russians have gone in

Status
Not open for further replies.
Putin has said that the worse thing that has ever happened in the history of the world is the breakup of the Soviet Union. Everything he thinks and does is through this filter. He will do anything short of self-destruction to reform the USSR. Anything he thinks he can get away with toward the goal of reforming the USSR he will do. In his mind, it is his destiny to rebuild the Soviet Union. And, he is nuts.
There's never been a tyrant that didn't want more leverage, power and control over other people.
 
Do you wonder if this would have happened had Ukraine kept their nuclear weapons they inherited during the “fall” of he Soviet Union?

Me thinks not.

That‘s a tempting thought, and even people from Ukraine talk about that these days, but it’s very unhistoric.

The newly independent Ukraine didn‘t inherit operational control over a nuclear force ready to be used at its discretion for deterrence, but the hardware of mostly ICBM‘s aimed at the US, with no nuclear program and the control infrastructure either in Russia or having been dismantled by the Russians before leaving.

Just like in the other republics, the question wasn‘t whether Ukraine was going to be a nuclear power, but how to safely dispose of the bad stuff without anything falling into the wrong hands or giving lunatics access. The “Great Powers” of the time, the US, pre-Putin Russia, and the Europeans, would have likely refused Ukraine diplomatic recognition and support if they had tried playing nuclear poker.

Hindsight is 20/20, but back then it wasn’t an option.
 
I think that the invasion of Ukraine has been the work of ONE individual: Vladimir Putin.

Although Russia's parliamentary body gave unanimous consent, it's very clear that when Putin says **** they all squat and ask what color. They are all toadies to his will. There was one initial dissent, and Putin quickly put him in his place and in obvious fear for his life.

Now let's look at what the Russian PEOPLE want. I strongly believe that they don't want waves - especially the kind that directly affect them: incredible inflation, lack of control over their lives, innumerable nations hacked off at them, deaths in their military, Russian relatives being killed in Ukraine, the possibility of nuclear war, etc. etc.

It's a truism that if you want to kill a snake, you need to cut its head off. The prime historical example is that there were many attempts on Hitler's life. Unfortunately, all failed. As a result, of course, he killed hundreds, including Germany's most admired general officer, Erwin Rommel. Had the attempts to kill Hitler succeeded, WWII in Europe most assuredly would have been ended toot sweet.

The Russian people will soon realize that they have been handed a very costly and unwanted raw deal.

I have to ask, as others are thinking, will there be another Russian revolution - and in the course of that, will Putin meet his maker due to internal outrage? Time will tell, but I think the seeds of a new revolution will have been firmly planted as things play out.

I am not permitted on this forum to conjecture about what part, if any, the U.S. or its allies will play in this scenario, so I won't.

Get lots of popcorn and stand by.

John

 
I think the final out come will be Putin will use the invasion as a means to install a pro Russian puppet government then pull back out. The bear will go back to its den and the west will slowly move back to business as usual as the Europeans are wholely dependent on Russian oil (as we have become, Russia is the #3 supplier of American oil behind Canada, Mexico and ahead of Saudi Arabia).

To Putin himself there are many pundits talking about how his demeanor has changed in the last year, becoming more aggressive, obliviously, but not just against his neighbors. He is becoming much more aggressive to his own parliament and government puppets. Like a dictator feeling internal pressure and lashing out. This is very dangerous considering he is a nuclear power. Best outcome this works out like the Afghanistan invasion did for Brezhnev.
 
Last edited:
I think the final out come will be Putin will use the invasion as a means to install a pro Russian puppet government then pull back out. The bear will go back to its den…..

Of course that sounds awfully similar to our plans regarding Iraq in 2003. Didn’t work out. And there we did remove a regime that actually was as bad as Putin tries to make the Ukrainian government sound, and most Iraqis did indeed feel liberated, and we did try to install democracy. We still mucked it up so badly that we had to keep fighting into the next decade.

As I said above about the survival chance of plans ….
 
I don't think Putin is a mad man, he is a realist. He knows that the West is embroiled in a life and death struggle against...climate change...and lacks the will to offer any meaningful opposition. He takes what he wants, knowing that he alone guides his path forward. And as an added bonus, the higher he can drive the price of oil, the more cash he has for his adventures. Our response will be more solar panels, wind mills and electric car chargers.
 
Ya know, just a few years ago we were energy independent and an exporter of oil.

I think what happened is there was, in consequence, an oil glut, prices went down, and we Americans got out of the oil producing biz as it was no longer profitable. (I'm just a casual observer though. If someone has a better explanation of what happened to oil production in this country, let's hear it.)

I hope we reinvest, ramp up production and export to Europe what we don't consume here.

If that happens, we will need to accept higher gas prices here. I think it would be worth it to do so.
 
The MICEX (Russian stock market) ended at 2,058.12 from 3,700 last week and 4,200 late November. Imagine if our Dow dropped from 36,000 to 17,000. The ruble (rouble) stands at 86 to one USD from 74 last week. Sanctions aren't as satisfying as a military response, but over time may be as effective and without our blood.Their gas and oil index is off 49%, and that's before new sanctions. Russia stock market data - prices and news - FT.com

And Russia cutting off EU oil and gas cuts both ways - At this point, it’s unlikely that oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe will be cut significantly since it would be mutually destructive for both Moscow and the European countries. Russia exports half of its crude to Europe and relies on those oil revenues, which make up a large share of its government revenues. Europe, for its part, imports from Russia more than one-third of the natural gas and more than one-quarter of the crude oil it consumes. Cutting Russia’s Oil Flow To Europe Would Be A Disaster
 
Last edited:
Moderator Edit:

Last time I looked, politics was still a banned topic on this board. I deleted and/or edited a number of posts.

Please note (from our rules):

Regards,
chad

Fair Warning!!!

Points and/or suspensions will be issued.
Sincerely,
s&wchad

--------------------------------------------
Situation is very confused. First it's confined to Donbas. Then it's about the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine. Either way, the fat is really in the fire now.

Ukraine-Russia crisis: Putin announces military operation - BBC News

Ukraine conflict: Russia announces special military operation in Donbas - BBC News

War related subjects are almost impossible to discuss without some political hints. That's what war is. Safer to express those opinions on other forums and not worry about repercussions.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top