Never wonder why NK and Iran want nukes - countries with nukes don't get invaded.
The Russians have gone in
- Thread starter LVSteve
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There's never been a tyrant that didn't want more leverage, power and control over other people.
Absalom
SWCA Member, Absent Comrade
That's a tempting thought, and even people from Ukraine talk about that these days, but it's very unhistoric.
The newly independent Ukraine didn't inherit operational control over a nuclear force ready to be used at its discretion for deterrence, but the hardware of mostly ICBM's aimed at the US, with no nuclear program and the control infrastructure either in Russia or having been dismantled by the Russians before leaving.
Just like in the other republics, the question wasn't whether Ukraine was going to be a nuclear power, but how to safely dispose of the bad stuff without anything falling into the wrong hands or giving lunatics access. The "Great Powers" of the time, the US, pre-Putin Russia, and the Europeans, would have likely refused Ukraine diplomatic recognition and support if they had tried playing nuclear poker.
Hindsight is 20/20, but back then it wasn't an option.
I think that the invasion of Ukraine has been the work of ONE individual: Vladimir Putin.
Although Russia's parliamentary body gave unanimous consent, it's very clear that when Putin says **** they all squat and ask what color. They are all toadies to his will. There was one initial dissent, and Putin quickly put him in his place and in obvious fear for his life.
Now let's look at what the Russian PEOPLE want. I strongly believe that they don't want waves - especially the kind that directly affect them: incredible inflation, lack of control over their lives, innumerable nations hacked off at them, deaths in their military, Russian relatives being killed in Ukraine, the possibility of nuclear war, etc. etc.
It's a truism that if you want to kill a snake, you need to cut its head off. The prime historical example is that there were many attempts on Hitler's life. Unfortunately, all failed. As a result, of course, he killed hundreds, including Germany's most admired general officer, Erwin Rommel. Had the attempts to kill Hitler succeeded, WWII in Europe most assuredly would have been ended toot sweet.
The Russian people will soon realize that they have been handed a very costly and unwanted raw deal.
I have to ask, as others are thinking, will there be another Russian revolution - and in the course of that, will Putin meet his maker due to internal outrage? Time will tell, but I think the seeds of a new revolution will have been firmly planted as things play out.
I am not permitted on this forum to conjecture about what part, if any, the U.S. or its allies will play in this scenario, so I won't.
Get lots of popcorn and stand by.
John
Although Russia's parliamentary body gave unanimous consent, it's very clear that when Putin says **** they all squat and ask what color. They are all toadies to his will. There was one initial dissent, and Putin quickly put him in his place and in obvious fear for his life.
Now let's look at what the Russian PEOPLE want. I strongly believe that they don't want waves - especially the kind that directly affect them: incredible inflation, lack of control over their lives, innumerable nations hacked off at them, deaths in their military, Russian relatives being killed in Ukraine, the possibility of nuclear war, etc. etc.
It's a truism that if you want to kill a snake, you need to cut its head off. The prime historical example is that there were many attempts on Hitler's life. Unfortunately, all failed. As a result, of course, he killed hundreds, including Germany's most admired general officer, Erwin Rommel. Had the attempts to kill Hitler succeeded, WWII in Europe most assuredly would have been ended toot sweet.
The Russian people will soon realize that they have been handed a very costly and unwanted raw deal.
I have to ask, as others are thinking, will there be another Russian revolution - and in the course of that, will Putin meet his maker due to internal outrage? Time will tell, but I think the seeds of a new revolution will have been firmly planted as things play out.
I am not permitted on this forum to conjecture about what part, if any, the U.S. or its allies will play in this scenario, so I won't.
Get lots of popcorn and stand by.
John
I think the final out come will be Putin will use the invasion as a means to install a pro Russian puppet government then pull back out. The bear will go back to its den and the west will slowly move back to business as usual as the Europeans are wholely dependent on Russian oil (as we have become, Russia is the #3 supplier of American oil behind Canada, Mexico and ahead of Saudi Arabia).
To Putin himself there are many pundits talking about how his demeanor has changed in the last year, becoming more aggressive, obliviously, but not just against his neighbors. He is becoming much more aggressive to his own parliament and government puppets. Like a dictator feeling internal pressure and lashing out. This is very dangerous considering he is a nuclear power. Best outcome this works out like the Afghanistan invasion did for Brezhnev.
To Putin himself there are many pundits talking about how his demeanor has changed in the last year, becoming more aggressive, obliviously, but not just against his neighbors. He is becoming much more aggressive to his own parliament and government puppets. Like a dictator feeling internal pressure and lashing out. This is very dangerous considering he is a nuclear power. Best outcome this works out like the Afghanistan invasion did for Brezhnev.
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jag312
Member
Only a madman would even consider to do this. I pray for the people on both sides who are dying from this insanity.
Jag that just may be the point. He always was a mad man but recently he seems like he just doesn't give a damn and fears no one. This may be due in part to reasons not to be discussed here.
Absalom
SWCA Member, Absent Comrade
Of course that sounds awfully similar to our plans regarding Iraq in 2003. Didn't work out. And there we did remove a regime that actually was as bad as Putin tries to make the Ukrainian government sound, and most Iraqis did indeed feel liberated, and we did try to install democracy. We still mucked it up so badly that we had to keep fighting into the next decade.
As I said above about the survival chance of plans ….
smoothshooter
Member
We will do nothing meaningful.
I don't think Putin is a mad man, he is a realist. He knows that the West is embroiled in a life and death struggle against...climate change...and lacks the will to offer any meaningful opposition. He takes what he wants, knowing that he alone guides his path forward. And as an added bonus, the higher he can drive the price of oil, the more cash he has for his adventures. Our response will be more solar panels, wind mills and electric car chargers.
Who will cave first, the Russians or the most vulnerable Europeans who depend on Russian gas to run their economies?
mistermills357
US Veteran
I don't know what took them so long.
mistermills357
US Veteran
The Europeans can't wait to grovel at Russia's feet, and the Ukraine is as good as gone, IMO.
Ya know, just a few years ago we were energy independent and an exporter of oil.
I think what happened is there was, in consequence, an oil glut, prices went down, and we Americans got out of the oil producing biz as it was no longer profitable. (I'm just a casual observer though. If someone has a better explanation of what happened to oil production in this country, let's hear it.)
I hope we reinvest, ramp up production and export to Europe what we don't consume here.
If that happens, we will need to accept higher gas prices here. I think it would be worth it to do so.
I think what happened is there was, in consequence, an oil glut, prices went down, and we Americans got out of the oil producing biz as it was no longer profitable. (I'm just a casual observer though. If someone has a better explanation of what happened to oil production in this country, let's hear it.)
I hope we reinvest, ramp up production and export to Europe what we don't consume here.
If that happens, we will need to accept higher gas prices here. I think it would be worth it to do so.
Putin is anything but a madman. Like so many before him he is a "pragmatic opportunist." He has a stranglehold on the Russian power structure which motivates his hegemony. Joe
The MICEX (Russian stock market) ended at 2,058.12 from 3,700 last week and 4,200 late November. Imagine if our Dow dropped from 36,000 to 17,000. The ruble (rouble) stands at 86 to one USD from 74 last week. Sanctions aren't as satisfying as a military response, but over time may be as effective and without our blood.Their gas and oil index is off 49%, and that's before new sanctions. Russia stock market data - prices and news - FT.com
And Russia cutting off EU oil and gas cuts both ways - At this point, it's unlikely that oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe will be cut significantly since it would be mutually destructive for both Moscow and the European countries. Russia exports half of its crude to Europe and relies on those oil revenues, which make up a large share of its government revenues. Europe, for its part, imports from Russia more than one-third of the natural gas and more than one-quarter of the crude oil it consumes. Cutting Russia's Oil Flow To Europe Would Be A Disaster
And Russia cutting off EU oil and gas cuts both ways - At this point, it's unlikely that oil and gas supplies from Russia to Europe will be cut significantly since it would be mutually destructive for both Moscow and the European countries. Russia exports half of its crude to Europe and relies on those oil revenues, which make up a large share of its government revenues. Europe, for its part, imports from Russia more than one-third of the natural gas and more than one-quarter of the crude oil it consumes. Cutting Russia's Oil Flow To Europe Would Be A Disaster
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War related subjects are almost impossible to discuss without some political hints. That's what war is. Safer to express those opinions on other forums and not worry about repercussions.
They should have SWIFTed the Russians immediately. But apparently didn't want to burn their bridges with natural gas.
China will likely buy all the energy sales lost by Russia.
Just read that the soviet forces took Chernobyl. So much for the plans for a new theme park.
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