...The oligarchs aren't the ones who would turn on Putin. There is something of a power-sharing agreement between Putin and his oligarchical team, but it is one-sided and mostly economic... But the oligarchs have no direct access to hard power, such as police or other armed security forces in Russia.
Nor will the mythical Russian "man on the street" rise up to dethrone Putin. There are Russians who support Putin's policies, and others who have simply become politically apathetic...
The real threat to Putin comes from the
siloviki, a Russian word used loosely to describe Russia's security and military elite. These are people like Nikolai Patrushev, currently the secretary of the Russian security council...
Men like Patrushev and Bortnikov not only possess hard power, but they know how to use it and are inclined to do so. The FSB includes around 160,000 members of the Border Guard service, as well as thousands of armed personnel with law enforcement authorities. But the strength of the FSB comes not only from its ability to do violence; the organization is also highly secretive. FSB officers are skilled at working clandestinely, keeping their most sensitive operations strictly compartmented to small groups. Putin understands this better than most: He once ran the organization himself....
The
siloviki are willing to use this deadly mixture of hard power and secrecy when a serious threat to the Russian kleptocratic system emerges....
Steven L. Hall retired from the CIA in 2015 after 30 years of running and managing Russian operations
