The Russians have gone in

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The 'Keystone Kremlin'?

Russian forces have blown up an oil refinery owned by Russia in Luhansk province, according to The Kyiv Independent.

The Ukrainian media outlet says a Russian aircraft fired on its own oil refinery in Lysychansk. The refinery is owned by Rosneft, the state-controlled oil giant.
MSN
 
The 'Keystone Kremlin'?

Russian forces have blown up an oil refinery owned by Russia in Luhansk province, according to The Kyiv Independent.

The Ukrainian media outlet says a Russian aircraft fired on its own oil refinery in Lysychansk. The refinery is owned by Rosneft, the state-controlled oil giant. MSN

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An interesting and certainly current thread. If anyone here is interested in a historical perspective how we have arrived here I urge you to read the book "1946" by Victor Sebestyen published in 2014. I started reading it before any thought of the conflict in Ukraine and it was almost eerily prescient. It is rather a long book but within the first 94 pages it is very illuminating. I don't think that this is a situation to apply Occam's razor to.

I gained an understanding (at least in my mind) of what is happening today in Ukraine. It is rather simple to take an A-vs-B position in a current event but I must admit I learned a lot about the historical perspective of the current conflict from the book but perhaps I am just a bit of a history geek. I pray for the people of Ukraine.
 
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FWIW, who on this forum has been to war?

Fortunately not, although I did spend a couple years in uniform, ten klicks from the Iron Curtain on the Baltic coast in the late 70's, waiting for the avalanche of Russian tanks to come. Good for me, they never showed up, and I got to turn in my gear and go off to college.


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Daring to feel more hopeful tonight, after reported Ukrainian success on the battlefield, potentially soon even encircling some Russian attackers NE of Kiev.
Also news of the EU approval of doubling it's military aid to a billion euros, and Great Britain approving adding another 6,000 missiles to the 4,000 they've already sent, and even sending 33 million dollars to pay Ukrainian soldiers.
The Western logistics pipeline to this century's freedom fighters is filling.
God bless them.

Sent from my motorola one 5G using Tapatalk
 
And here's really good news as well:

BRUSSELS — President Joe Biden and European leaders are expected to announce a major initiative to direct shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe during his visit to Brussels this week, part of a broader effort to help reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the plan.

The announcement, a dramatic effort to deprive Russia of leverage as it continues to batter Ukraine, would mark an unusual move to reorder the world's energy flow - a shift that could have an impact long after the war is over. It comes as European officials have asked the United States to do more to help them cut their reliance on Russia for oil and natural gas.


Biden and Europeans to announce major plan to redirect gas to Europe | Stars and Stripes
 
FWIW, who on this forum has been to war?

Here's a post from some years ago which counts for at least one who has been in combat and that a quality Derringer can be useful. Remove plastic grips and as the never miss a chance to make a funny comment, the Cop replied, carries slim, solid lockup and fishing with a 308 ain't legal... but for Sharks/swimmers next to the boat and in case a vessel approaches that may need one thru the bow... it's used often on the job.

"I would NOT carry a two shot anything as my primary CCW. Having said that I'll relate a personal experience.Without all the filler, the story is, I was shot down and captured by soldiers of the NVA.I had previously carried a privately owned Python through two tours in the "Pearl of The Orient". Knowing the Army was getting tough on privately owned weapons[POW]I chose not to risk the confiscation of my gun the third time around,I started looking for alternatives. I had about settled on a J frame lightweight until I gave a thought to my High Standard .22 Mag Derringer.Testing on blocks of laundry soap and wet phone books showed me that the .22 Mag Winchester 40 gr. jacketed HP was as good or better than the .38 Spl. To put a point on it , I smuggled the High Standard into country. When captured by two stalwarts of the NVA, they took all 3 of my knives , my .45 pistol, my wallet[Geneva Convention card] my cigarettes,lighter and my boots.What they didn't find was the High Standard hidden away inside my flight jacket. After several hours of walking the wrong way[for me!] they took a break on the trail. One went into the woods to answer the call of nature, the other was eating a rice ball. Since he wasn't going to share any food with me,I mimed that I wanted a smoke. He gave me my cigarettes and lighter. When I put them in my pocket he looked askance at me. The last thing he saw was a.22 Mag in the eye.His partner came running out of the woods with his AK in his left hand and his britches in his right. My next shot hit him in the collar bone and disabled him 'til I could get the first ones AK.Two observations,first their mother raised stupid children, second, the .22 Mag,when well placed IS DEADLY.Again, I wouldn't want one for a primary carry gun but as a deep concealment back up I trusted my life to it and it did not fail me.I still have the High Standard but if I need deep back up these days I carry a NAA .22 Mag revolver.I hope I haven't bored anyone with this recollection."
 
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Thanks for your analysis. I think it quite likely that a partition of Ukraine takes place, with the Ukrainians giving up the east and renouncing claims to Crimea and any plan to join NATO.

What might follow that is anyone's guess.

I don't know if I would call it "likely" at this point, but the above scenario is certainly possible...and that bothers me for several reasons.

First, I don't think Putin's thuggery should be rewarded, and ceding Crimea to him, and acknowledging the eastern provinces as independent, would effectively do just that. (It would be like letting a bank robber who's killed people during the robbery keep the loot he stole.) It would send a terrible message to the world's autocrats and dictators.

The second problem such a solution would present is: What does the West do about the sanctions it imposed? Discontinue them? Keep them in place? At what point would this conflict Putin started be considered ended?

Thirdly, how can Putin be held accountable if the war ends in such a manner? And who will be responsible for rebuilding the cities the Russians have destroyed?

Putin needs to be driven out of Ukraine, then charged, tried, convicted, and condemned as a war criminal. He needs to be permanently ostracized from the community of nations. Russia, as a country, needs to pay for what it did to Ukraine. I realize that's an unlikely, best-case scenario...but anything less will leave a very bitter taste in my mouth. :(
 
Daring to feel more hopeful tonight, after reported Ukrainian success on the battlefield, potentially soon even encircling some Russian attackers NE of Kiev.
Also news of the EU approval of doubling it's military aid to a billion euros, and Great Britain approving adding another 6,000 missiles to the 4,000 they've already sent, and even sending 33 million dollars to pay Ukrainian soldiers.
The Western logistics pipeline to this century's freedom fighters is filling.
God bless them.

I'm cautiously hopeful too...I really want to think the reporting we're seeing on how badly the Russians are doing isn't exaggerated.

When President Zelensky turned down our offer to evacuate him, and declared that he needed ammo, not a ride, he was apparently being completely candid. He's got the personnel to fight, and they are clearly committed to the cause. What he needs is weapons and ammunition, and so long as the USA and the EU keep sending them to him, he'll have a huge advantage over Putin's invaders.

I so want Ukraine to pull this off...
 
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We would not go to nuclear war over Ukraine. We would go to nuclear war because Russia shot first. Nuclear deterrence only works if the one you are trying to deter believes that you have the will to use them. If you loose the will to fight with them, then the nuclear deterrence goes away. Putin was told before he ever stepped over the boarder into Ukraine that NATO would not get in his way. He didn't even have to think twice about having to oppose NATO ground forces. He was told over and over that he would not have to fight NATO or US armies. Maybe if the threat of having to fight a ground war was left on the table it might have changed things. Maybe it wouldn't. We'll never know. But it's hard to listen to the leaders of the free world, watch this unfold and not think of Nevil Chamberlain and Czechoslovacia, 1938.

So you'd be willing to blow up the world over U frigging Kraine!?! A border dispute from two feuding former USSR members. Yeesh.

A NUCLEAR WAR? Dude, don't go into military planning. That's all I can say. Some of you people have flipped your lid.
 
So you'd be willing to blow up the world over U frigging Kraine!?! A border dispute from two feuding former USSR members. Yeesh.

A NUCLEAR WAR? Dude, don't go into military planning. That's all I can say. Some of you people have flipped your lid.

Like others here, I'm still not seeing how you can limit our choices to:

1) Do nothing and allow Putin to rebuild the USSR (bad idea)

2) Turn the Northern hemisphere into a self-lighting glass car park. (another bad idea)

Right now option 3 seems to be going along quite nicely, although at massive cost to the nation of Ukraine. Yes, I've picked up on your attitude towards Ukraine being an independent entity, and it puzzles and saddens me greatly. Want to expand on that within the forum rules so we can gain some insight into your mindset?
 
Per NATO "it would be a good idea if President Biden did not regularly announce what the US is unwilling to do, it undercuts our leverage." Where is Ike when we need him.

Use of chemical or nukes should be a hard line for NATO, prompting their entry into the war. If Putin is willing to use either, he will do so again at another time in another place. Best to punch the bully demanding your lunch money in the mouth the first time he does it, or he will never stop.
 
Use of chemical or nukes should be a hard line for NATO, prompting their entry into the war. If Putin is willing to use either, he will do so again at another time in another place.

Unfortunately this has always
been the hard wall the western
alliance has faced.

It's been referred to as "unthinkable"
but the alternative is unending
aggression if not by Russia than
by some other rogue nuclear power.

Because of his setbacks, even defeats
in Ukraine, Putin is now saying
"Gimme what I want or else!"
 
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