The Russians have gone in

[venomballistics]

I agree totally with Onomea...the Ukrainians are enraged and energized, and will never settle for a stalemate. If Russia somehow succeeds in occupying the eastern regions of Ukraine, they will have to fight every single day to maintain control, and they will ultimately lose that battle.

This seems to have been the situation for quite some time. Another dimension worth considering is capacity to fight.
The Eastern front seems to be stripped of capacity.
Emotional disposition and will are likely there. They just cannot do anything with their motivation aside from a Ghandi doctrine movement of passive resistance. I don't believe Russia has assessed much value to the population for that to be as effective as it was in Brit occupied India.
It must be retaken from left to right from the outside.
The same applies to the southern front.

 

[Der Verminator]

By "trying to take over the entire country," perhaps I spoke loosely. What I meant was that the initial Russian mission, as I understood it, was to occupy Kiev and replace the current government with a Russian puppet government. Putin, I think, believed he could do this quickly. (Everybody else, except the Ukrainians, seems to have believed this.)

Re we in the West and our assumptions of immediate gratification, I'll comment that the Russians were in Afghanistan for 10 years while we were there for 20...

Well, our reasons may have been different.......after all, the longer we stay in a war........the more profit for the sellers of war material. It's a tried and true formula here.

I guess nobody knows what's in Putin's mind, but taking the whole country in one fell swoop seems like too much.......Then again, maybe he did think that more Ukrainians were still loyal to Russia.......who knows?

He's not exactly a great example of mental health.

I do think that the Black Sea oil and gas reserves were and are a primary goal and a method of retaining power by controlling energy sources needed by Europe.

 

[bigwheelzip]

No Russian conscript will fight as hard to take Ukraine as the Ukrainians will fight to keep it...

Absolutely.

There is something else there that we westerners generally don't comprehend. Generations of Soviet rule and accompanying shortages, bring Ukrainians finely honed survival skills. Opportunism as art form. A mental toughness in the face of adversity.

For example, so many pieces of Russian hardware were taken away by Ukrainians, that they commemorate it with a postage stamp.

Ukrainian Tractors Versus Russian Armor - YouTube

There is a making lemonade from lemons feel to this group of infantrymen that create a self-propelled tank destroyer from assorted battlefield trophies.

"Ukrainians showcase custom gun assembled from captured Russian equipment" Ukrainians showcase custom gun assembled from captured Russian equipment


Then, there is the unimpressed Ukrainian infantry, discussing their fight with Putin's favorite mercenary force, the Wagner Group.


"Russian Mercenaries Battle With Ukrainian Army" Russian Mercenaries Battle With Ukrainian Army



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[biku324]

Putin lacks the equipment, military, and economic wherewithal to do the below. He anticipated another South Ossetia and got instead supercharged Afghanistan, but with rich allies.

I doubt that Putin wants to occupy all of Ukraine now.......that would be impossible.

All he needs to do to CONTROL Ukraine is to occupy a narrow strip from the east end around the south edge on the Black Sea and control all the seaports.

By so doing he claims for Russia all the oil and natural gas reserves under the Black Sea--a gain of many trillions of dollars.

He also controls Ukrainian shipping of grain and that gives him huge leverage and power over the rest of the country.

He will accomplish these reasonable goals in a few months and can then take many years to absorb the rest of Ukraine.

 

[Rudi]

The chances of him attacking NATO are slim and none. Slim has left the Dacha.

 

[oldbrownhat]

...For example, so many pieces of Russian hardware were taken away by Ukrainians...

...whose JD tractors ran because THEY weren't locked out

 

[bigwheelzip]

The last Russian held Denipro River crossing in Kherson Oblast, the Nova Kakhovka Bridge, has reportedly been knocked out by Ukrainian fire. This leaves only 2 pontoon rafts available for the Russian's equipment to cross the river.
Reports are that most Russian senior officers have retreated from the now cutoff region on the far side of the Denipro, leaving conscripts with less than the usual leadership.



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[venomballistics]

That can make a Crimean rematch a possibility...
And I think they should

 

[venomballistics]

Freshly gleened from my battle map feed.
" Tiz only a flesh wound"

Ministry of Defense of Belarus says explosions heard last night at Ziabrovka airfield were as result of equipment caught fire

 

[bigwheelzip]

The HARM missiles recently arrived in Ukraine are being put to good use, according to sources in Kyiv.

The U.S. anti-radiation missiles are thought to be involved in the destruction of at least five Russian anti-aircraft systems, four S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile systems and a Pantsir-S1 missile system.


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[oldbrownhat]

At Ukraine's drone pilot school, skill at PlayStation gives an edge

The centre has trained more than 700 soldiers as drone pilots and hopes to carry on training 'until the war stops'

Article here

Ukrainian serviceman of "Fireflies" reconnaissance team operates a drone at his position at the frontline in Mykolaiv region, Ukraine. Photo by Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

KYIV — In a muddy field on the outskirts of Ukraine's capital, soldiers hunch over hand-held controls and talk in hushed voices about which way to direct the drone that hums overhead.

It takes a certain skill to navigate the drone, explained Oleksandr, the head of the Dronarium training centre — and it doesn't come from traditional military training. "For someone who plays PlayStations it's easier," Oleksandr, who cannot give his full name for security reasons, told The Daily Telegraph.

...Before the war, Oleksandr had an international business selling pet supplies online. He learned to fly a drone eight years ago and used to make a bit of extra money filming weddings and other celebrations. Never did he think his side hustle would be one day help his country fight a Russian invasion...

...Max Gherasimov, 45... who previously worked in football management, decided to complete a course in drone flying; however, he proved to be such a natural that now he teaches some of Ukraine's finest soldiers how to operate the devices...​

 

[bigwheelzip]

If reports are correct, the current Russian frontline in Kherson is collapsing. The Russian-backed occupational government in the city of Mikolayiv fled across the Dnieper river yesterday, along with the senior Russian officers present.
With the river crossings damaged or destroyed, resupply is all but cutoff, leaving Russian troops on the west side of the river dependant on their stockpiled supplies. That vulnerability was exacerbated by yesterday's precision strike by Ukraine on their ammo dumps in Nova Kakhovka and Muzykivka.

Also, at the Ukraine Support Conference in Copenhagen yesterday, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic announced that they have launched a joint program to expand production of artillery systems, munitions, and other military equipment for Ukraine.

With the recent arrival of the new ZUZANA 2 Howitzers, Ukraine is now fielding 7 NATO-specification artillery systems. They are also using M777, FH70, CAESARs, M109, Krabs, and PzH2000.

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[venomballistics]

Almost looks like a push to retake Crimea

 

[bigwheelzip]

Almost looks like a push to retake Crimea

Probably not anytime soon. More like taking away any chance for Putin to take Odessa.


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[venomballistics]

Probably not anytime soon. More like taking away any chance for Putin to take Odessa.


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It would be largely symbolic, but worth it if they could make short work of it

 

[biku324]

Making Putin divert forces to defend Crimea is helpful as well.

 

[bigwheelzip]

With the Russians trying to repair and reestablish a river crossing at the Antonivka Bridge in Kherson, the Ukrainians hammered it again with rockets, to keep it out of service.

This strike was captured on video, from some distant position on the river. Interestingly, the video shows multiple Russian anti-air rockets launched in defense, being completely ineffective.


Нічні прильоти по Антонівському мосту - YouTube


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[oldbrownhat]

With the Russians trying to repair and reestablish a river crossing at the Antonivka Bridge in Kherson, the Ukrainians hammered it again with rockets, to keep it out of service.

This strike was captured on video, from some distant position on the river. Interestingly, the video shows multiple Russian anti-air rockets launched in defense, being completely ineffective.

"...And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that the bridge was wrecked there..."
​

 

[bigwheelzip]

"...And the rockets' red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that the bridge was wrecked there..."
​

Those Ruskies need Colonel Nicholson.

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[UncleEd]

Also, at the Ukraine Support Conference in Copenhagen yesterday, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic announced that they have launched a joint program to expand production of artillery systems, munitions, and other military equipment for Ukraine.

Payback time for the decades of Soviet/Russian
control of their countries?

 

[LVSteve]

With the Russians trying to repair and reestablish a river crossing at the Antonivka Bridge in Kherson, the Ukrainians hammered it again with rockets, to keep it out of service.

This strike was captured on video, from some distant position on the river. Interestingly, the video shows multiple Russian anti-air rockets launched in defense, being completely ineffective.


Нічні прильоти по Антонівському мосту - YouTube


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I'm not entirely convinced. There were a couple of "off frame" flashes that looked like they came from the sky. For sure, shooting down a missile with a missile is not a 100% sure process, as we all learned in Gulf War One. Even the Israeli Iron Dome system misses some, and that operates from prepared locations. Doing this in the field on the fly adds to the difficulty.

What you can see is that the SAMs are always launched in pairs, which can be easily explained by kill probability statistics. This seems to be a feature of Russian/Soviet systems. The airliner shot down near Tehran took two from an SA-15 as seen in the 'phone video.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Looks like a Russian operational security failure led to a successful missile strike against a field headquarters of the notoriously brutal Wagner Group, Putin's favorite mercenary force.

A Russian correspondent publicly posted pictures from a place he identified as the Wagner HQ, even posing with Wagner's owner there. In the photo's background was a sign with the address of the nearest bomb shelter, and Ukrainian intelligence worked out the location from there.


"Ukraine HIMARS Destroy Wagner HQ After Russian Doxxes Forces: Report" Ukraine HIMARS Destroy Wagner HQ After Russian Doxxes Forces: Report

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[oldbrownhat]

.."Ukraine HIMARS Destroy Wagner HQ After Russian Doxxes Forces: Report" Ukraine HIMARS Destroy Wagner HQ After Russian Doxxes Forces: Report

..Ukraine became aware of the base's location after Russian war correspondent Serhiy Sreda came to the base on August 8, according to the Hromadske report.Sreda published a photo showing that the paramilitary force had set up a base in a residential building, referring to it as the group's "headquarters." One of the photos showed a sign with the address of the nearest bomb shelter, Myronivska Street, 12..."​

Mr. Sreda will likely find himself reassigned to reporting on the movements of polar bears in Siberia.

 

[biku324]

Karma, sweet karma....

 

[BSA1]

Regarding the situation in Kherson does anyone happen to have Putin's mail address? I would like to send him a DVD copy of the movie Stalingrad. It might help him understand what is happening to his army there.

 

[Protocall_Design]

Why help him at all?

 

[oldbrownhat]

Regarding the situation in Kherson does anyone happen to have Putin's mail address? I would like to send him a DVD copy of the movie Stalingrad. It might help him understand what is happening to his army there.

Darn... I was sure it was in my Rolodex but it seems to have disappeared. "President V. Putin, Kremlin" would probably get it there Make sure its in the right format, though. I think they use PAL/SECAM.

Don't forget to post his response

 

[venomballistics]

..Ukraine became aware of the base's location after Russian war correspondent Serhiy Sreda came to the base on August 8, according to the Hromadske report.Sreda published a photo showing that the paramilitary force had set up a base in a residential building, referring to it as the group's "headquarters." One of the photos showed a sign with the address of the nearest bomb shelter, Myronivska Street, 12..."​

Mr. Sreda will likely find himself reassigned to reporting on the movements of polar bears in Siberia.

I feel better now, knowing we are not the only ones plagued by idiots in media.

 

[Der Verminator]

..Ukraine became aware of the base's location after Russian war correspondent Serhiy Sreda came to the base on August 8, according to the Hromadske report.Sreda published a photo showing that the paramilitary force had set up a base in a residential building, referring to it as the group's "headquarters." One of the photos showed a sign with the address of the nearest bomb shelter, Myronivska Street, 12..."​

Mr. Sreda will likely find himself reassigned to reporting on the movements of polar bears in Siberia.

If he lives.

Sounds like he is high on the list of folks to die suddenly in a mysterious poisoning incident.

 

[oldbrownhat]

If he lives.

Sounds like he is high on the list of folks to die suddenly in a mysterious poisoning incident.

Or something along the lines of the fate of Uriah, Bathsheba's husband. Putin advises Mr. Sreda that, due to poor morale and high combat losses, he's being called to fight on the front lines. Remembering the early days of the invasion, Vlad instructs that he be given a uniform with lots of medals and placed near an antenna array...