The Russians have gone in

[venomballistics]

Considering how "untrained" Russian
soldiers seem to be, it's quite a
contrast.

It's not a great place for a generalization.
Sure, we have been made well aware of the Russian canon fodder, but those who took the vast swath of territory along the Northern, Eastern and Southern rim knew, and continue to know what they are doing.

Seems to me to be a bit of a large scale game of Russian Roulette. Pick a path through and see if you have canon fodder or professionals.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Maybe more careless smokers in Crimea??

Another Russian ammo dump, well behind front lines in Maiskoye, Crimea, exploded today.

Russia is attributing this and the recent airfield attack there, to actions of sabotage.

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[UncleEd]

In the eastern and southern fronts,
artillery, namely vast amounts of
Russian artillery, ruled. That
advantage has lessened greatly
with the advance of artillery and
supplies to the Ukraine forces.

Hence the recent slow to no
progress by the Russians on
those fronts. Of course, they
are probing for a weak spot
in Ukrainian defenses.

 

[venomballistics]

In the eastern and southern fronts,
artillery, namely vast amounts of
Russian artillery, ruled. That
advantage has lessened greatly
with the advance of artillery and
supplies to the Ukraine forces.

Hence the recent slow to no
progress by the Russians on
those fronts. Of course, they
are probing for a weak spot
in Ukrainian defenses.

There's a strong pocket around Donetsk that picked up some yardage.
Their star players are still on the field.

 

[venomballistics]

Maybe more careless smokers in Crimea??

Another Russian ammo dump, well behind front lines in Maiskoye, Crimea, exploded today.

Russia is attributing this and the recent airfield attack there, to actions of sabotage.

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Anyone going to send marshmallows?

 

[bigwheelzip]

While Ukraine is not yet proficient in large scale combined-arms offensive maneuvers, they've been developing western-style special forces for 8 years, so maybe they did infiltrate Crimea and cause the recent trouble.

Since 2014, the US special-operations community — primarily Green Berets  from the Army's 10th Special Forces Group —  has led a multinational effort  to train Ukrainians.

"Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training" Attacks Behind Russian Lines Hint at Ukrainian Use of US Training

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[venomballistics]

Might be relatively easy to go larping to Crimea for now. Russia is currently concentrated on the Eastern front with hit and miss advances.
Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to be getting the hang of the covert ops gig with a few more hits around Kursk

 

[Beemerguy53]

Looks like Putin Ukraine venture is going to be " A Bridge To Far"……

I think it was "a bridge too far" the moment he attacked Ukraine. Even in a worse case scenario -- let's say, for the sake of argument, that in that first month he successfully decapitated the Ukrainian government and installed a puppet regime -- he would have to fight a determined and strong insurgency every hour he occupied the country.

His little adventure was doomed from the start, and still is. The only real question at this point is how much blood will have to be spilled before he realizes he cannot win?

 

[Rudi]

I wonder what the average Russian on the street thinks of this mess.

 

[LVSteve]

I wonder what the average Russian on the street thinks of this mess.

Not much. It's not like the average Russian actually knows there's a mess.

 

[Beemerguy53]

Not much. It's not like the average Russian actually knows there's a mess.

Even considering the way information is controlled and the flow of news is managed there, don't you think they've lost enough men that average Russians are starting to realize the "special military operation" isn't going as planned?

 

[bigwheelzip]

Even considering the way information is controlled and the flow of news is managed there, don't you think they've lost enough men that average Russians are starting to realize the "special military operation" isn't going as planned?

Well, there's another fly-in-the-ointment clue that surfaced yesterday. A nationwide Russian defense industry mobilization is now in effect. All factory personnel time off is cancelled until further notice, with 24 hour operations and double-shifts mandated.




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[Onomea]

Good essay on Ukrainian military strategy:

Opinions | Why Kyiv's 'thousand bee sting' strategy is costing Russia dearly

Ukraine is making brilliant use of the "indirect approach" to warfare.
Opinion by Max Boot

https://wapo.st/3dz2PYk

 

[oldbrownhat]

Good essay on Ukrainian military strategy:

Opinions | Why Kyiv's 'thousand bee sting' strategy is costing Russia dearly

Ukraine is making brilliant use of the "indirect approach" to warfare.
Opinion by Max Boot

https://wapo.st/3dz2PYk

Very good article. Let's hope the Ukrainians continue to give the "Max Boot" to the Russians

 

[venomballistics]

Good essay on Ukrainian military strategy:

Opinions | Why Kyiv's 'thousand bee sting' strategy is costing Russia dearly

Ukraine is making brilliant use of the "indirect approach" to warfare.
Opinion by Max Boot

https://wapo.st/3dz2PYk

It's pretty much all they can do.
Russia can afford to roll scorched earth and break anything they want. Ukraine has to be surgical. The mess left over will be theirs to keep, win lose or draw. Saturation artillery might work, but only at the expense of becoming their own enemy

 

[Onomea]

Looks like all that special ops training we helped provide is paying off.

 

[venomballistics]

Looks like all that special ops training we helped provide is paying off.

It's certainly given Ukraine a new pastime.
I'll define "payoff" as the liberation of Kherson however.
Winter might make that happen if black ops softened things enough

 

[biku324]

Looks like all that special ops training we helped provide is paying off.

Courtesy of the Office of Defense Cooperation since 2014.

 

[Greyman50]

Old Chinese method of " death by 1000 cuts" is the same. This Ukrainian event is gotten to be a get your popcorn and beer/ sodas ready….

 

[Onomea]

This article says Russians — civilians, I presume — are fleeing occupied Crimea for Russia. Getting a bit too hot, sounds like. 38,000 cars across the Crimea Bridge leading to the Russian mainland on Tuesday.

Russians are realising Crimea is 'not a place for them', says Zelenskiy | Crimea | The Guardian

 

[Protocall_Design]

This article says Russians — civilians, I presume — are fleeing occupied Crimea for Russia. Getting a bit too hot, sounds like. 38,000 cars across the Crimea Bridge leading to the Russian mainland on Tuesday.

Russians are realising Crimea is 'not a place for them', says Zelenskiy | Crimea | The Guardian

They're probably singing "Crimea River" all the way back to Russia...

 

[venomballistics]

This article says Russians — civilians, I presume — are fleeing occupied Crimea for Russia. Getting a bit too hot, sounds like. 38,000 cars across the Crimea Bridge leading to the Russian mainland on Tuesday.

Russians are realising Crimea is 'not a place for them', says Zelenskiy | Crimea | The Guardian

That's a LOT of whistle blowers

 

[oldbrownhat]

Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion

Another damning article from The Guardian UK.

'I don't see justice in this war': Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion

Exclusive: Pavel Filatyev has fled his homeland after publishing a 141-page account detailing his experiences on the frontline

..."I am not afraid to fight in war. But I need to feel justice, to understand that what I'm doing is right. And I believe that this is all failing not only because the government has stolen everything, but because we, Russians, don't feel that what we are doing is right."

Two weeks ago, Filatyev went on to his VKontakte social media page and published a 141-page bombshell: a day-by-day description of how his paratrooper unit was sent to mainland Ukraine from Crimea, entered Kherson and captured the seaport, and dug in under heavy artillery fire for more than a month near Mykolaiv – and then how he eventually was wounded and evacuated from the conflict with an eye infection.

By then, he was convinced he had to expose the rot at the core of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "We were sitting under artillery fire by Mykolaiv," he said. "At that point I already thought that we're just out here doing *******, what the (expletive) do we need this war for? And I really had this thought: 'God, if I survive, then I'll do everything that I can to stop this.'"...​

and linked in the same article:

They turned us into savages': extract from Pavel Filatyev's account​

 

[Greyman50]

Looking at a map I can guess what Gen. George Patton ,Stonewall Jackson or Erwin Rommel would do. Russians in Crimea will be cut off, IMHO this will be a huge event with ole Vlad and scary as to what extremes he will use.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Russia replaces Black Sea fleet chief after attacks in Crimea

Reuters: The apparent Ukrainian capability to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory, either with some form of weapon or with sabotage, indicates a shift in the conflict

Story here.

"...On Wednesday, Russia's RIA news agency cited sources as saying the commander of its Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov, had been replaced with a new chief, Viktor Sokolov.

If confirmed, the move would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official so far in a war in which Russia has suffered heavy losses in men and equipment.

The Black Sea Fleet, which has a revered history in Russia, has suffered several humiliations since President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine...

In April, Ukraine struck its flagship, the Moskva, a huge cruiser, with Neptune missiles. It became the biggest warship to be sunk in combat for 40 years..."​

 

[Der Verminator]

Looking at a map I can guess what Gen. George Patton ,Stonewall Jackson or Erwin Rommel would do. Russians in Crimea will be cut off, IMHO this will be a huge event with ole Vlad and scary as to what extremes he will use.

That's by far the most important question in this dispute between neighbors.

It could escalate out of control easily with an unstable Putin in control.........especially if he has a terminal cancer.

 

[venomballistics]

Looking at a map I can guess what Gen. George Patton ,Stonewall Jackson or Erwin Rommel would do. Russians in Crimea will be cut off, IMHO this will be a huge event with ole Vlad and scary as to what extremes he will use.

yeah ... I'd wait till cover of darkness when they feels its safe to flee and order up package both ends to maximize the drama in between.
Give some survivors more to talk about

 

[Onomea]

A recent Yale study argues that Western media, misled by Putin's cherry-picked statistics, does not understand the dire state of the Russian economy:

...Since the invasion, the Kremlin's economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin...


...From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

- Russia's strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated...

- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed...

- Despite Putin's delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill...

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP...

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses...

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year...

...Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia's economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes...

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN

 

[venomballistics]

I'll take that with a grain of salt.
They have been in the global economy for a while, and like the feel i'm sure. But their roots remain.
While anecdotal, one can find Garage 54 on youtube.
The channel features Vlad, a Russian auto mechanic and his team of gearheads. You might see episodes where they cut Lada engines in half with angle grinders, weld them together, investing weeks of labor just to blow it up on a test drive. If this represents the determination of the Eastern European culture at large, Self sufficiency and raw will are their principal commodity. They will return to their roots and thrive given a time frame long enough for them to awake.
This conflict is on a deadline. Do not underestimate anyone involved

 

[Greyman50]

FWIW, look at history and how countries economy result in war(s). China's economy is slipping too. Somewhat concerning….