Is it just me, or do the 'forecasters" get even LESS accurate with the more "visual aids" they put on the screen?
"Weatherguessers" and graphics
- Thread starter bk42261
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I get all my weather forecasts from Ollie Williams.
He's never wrong.
He's never wrong.
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One of the few occupations that get paid when they are Wrong more than right…..
I feel that local weather types do less and less forecasting and just pull much of it "off" the wire so to speak.
The Last Standing Knight
Member
Used to be more accurate when the news just had "weathermen/women" and a chart than meterologists with the latest warp-powered super mega doppler radar of death.
I usually go to NOAA's website for my forecasts...they are often radically different than the newscasts....and far more accurate.
Besides, everytime there is a small thunderstorm, these meterologists have so much doom and gloom/end of the human race predictions and forecasts they should play "My Heart Wil Go On" or "Nearer My God To Thee" when giving them.
I usually go to NOAA's website for my forecasts...they are often radically different than the newscasts....and far more accurate.
Besides, everytime there is a small thunderstorm, these meterologists have so much doom and gloom/end of the human race predictions and forecasts they should play "My Heart Wil Go On" or "Nearer My God To Thee" when giving them.
I use a weather rock. It is suspended from a tree branch in the back yard.
If it's wet - Rain
If it's moving - Windy
If it's white - Snow
If it's in shadow - cloudy
and
If it's sticking straight out to the side - head for the basement
If it's wet - Rain
If it's moving - Windy
If it's white - Snow
If it's in shadow - cloudy
and
If it's sticking straight out to the side - head for the basement
JimW
Member
Just wet the tip of an index finger and hold it straight up in the air…job done.
"...get even LESS accurate with the more "visual aids"..."
Is that even possible?
Is that even possible?
I will check the aviation TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) for various airports in the vicinity. If you know all the abbreviations you are golden. If not they give it in "plain English" as well.
For example: An airport I flew out of for 7 years.
forecast.weather.gov
For example: An airport I flew out of for 7 years.
National Weather Service
We have a gen-u-wine meterologist up here. Johanna Wagstaffe is the on-air meteorologist, seismologist and scientist for CBC VANCOUVER NEWS and CBC NEWS NETWORK...
Not just a pretty face, though:
...She graduated with an honours degree in geophysics from The University of Western Ontario. She was first exposed to weather forecasting as a summer intern at the Environment Canada Severe Weather Centre, then obtained her post-graduate meteorology certificate from York University...
...She got her pilot's license when she was 17 years old and still flies with her father in a 1943 Aeronca on the weekends.
I have a different take on the weather forecasting issues. If you grew up in the 50s and 60s like I did, you may feel like weather forecasting has advanced by light years. Our local forecasts are usually spot-on. If they tell you to expect rain by 2:00, you better close your windows.
the local news out of Buffalo on ch4 (CBS AFFILIATE) is pretty good. They are always rated most accurate in the area. Just facts. They don't (usually) exaggerate snow forecast or winds. They tell you what's possible but then what is likely. …. I keep an eye on the Atlantic this time of yr because of our Naples Fl property. The national guys are a joke. I go right to Naples News or NOAA hurricane tracker
Iggy's favorite.
I spoke with a gentleman some years back. He had been a meteorologist for the USAF in Germany in the '60s He said they do a much better job of "forecasting" now with all the extra goodies they have. Hard to believe. But predicting most future events is not easy in any case.
fiasconva
US Veteran
A lot of us old farts have our own weather forecasting bodies: Knees start aching, it's going to rain.
And if rain is needed all I have to do is wash my truck. It will rain for the next 3 days.
And if rain is needed all I have to do is wash my truck. It will rain for the next 3 days.
prairieviper
Member
I wonder if accuracy is the priority or whether it's more about hype and making sure you stay tuned. Every local station here in cornfields and cows country is pitching their weather app so you can "stay connected." We normally get our weather from the internet and NOAA.
sparkyvega
Member
I call them "Weatherliars". Anymore it's more about sensationalism that getting the forecast right. It's all about pushing the fake climate change agenda. The newest shill is heat advisories in Alaska, I kid you not!
weather.com
NWS Issues First Heat Advisory Ever For Alaska This Weekend | Weather.com
The National Weather Service office in Fairbanks, Alaska, has issued a heat advisory for Sunday. This is the first of its kind ever issued for the state of Alaska – but there's a catch.
weather.com
I have thought for many years the more/fancier toys the weather people get the worse the forecasts will be. Another of my views is that the weather reporters are under some constraints from management to give the best possible forecast that they can. (Just short of downright lying!) If they cannot justify that they then give the most drear (The end of the world forecast) that they can get away with!
Being I live on a large lake in a tourist area I see that starting out on Mondays forecast, the weather clown will say something like very slight chance of showers for Saturday. Next day the percentage for rain/snow increases. Next day report is expect about a 20% chance of inclement weather. Thursday now the forecast for inclement weather is up to 40%. Friday and Sat/Sunday get here and we get at least two days of heavy rain.
Next Monday the cycle starts up again!
Being I live on a large lake in a tourist area I see that starting out on Mondays forecast, the weather clown will say something like very slight chance of showers for Saturday. Next day the percentage for rain/snow increases. Next day report is expect about a 20% chance of inclement weather. Thursday now the forecast for inclement weather is up to 40%. Friday and Sat/Sunday get here and we get at least two days of heavy rain.
Next Monday the cycle starts up again!
"Most accurate" weather reporting is like claiming to be the best shot--because you came closest to actually hitting the barn."...get even LESS accurate with the more "visual aids"..."
Is that even possible?
When I was gainfully employed years ago, many times we used the US Air Force Global Weather Service for mission planning and operations. We typically had 2 of their personnel (NCOs) with us on operations who communicated with Offutt AFB on an "as needed" basis.
It was amazing what they could do and do it very quickly. The computerized "models" they could create were phenomenal. For instance, the mission might be a night time ground attack, simple recon, etc on a simple structure, cave, etc. Using imagery of various sources, they could factor in shadows from the moon's "percent of illumination, weather / climate conditions, etc. The models were very good at what you could expect to see under the conditions of the time of the operations. Even back then, the pics, videos, etc produced were realistic. Much, much more but that's the idea of their capabilities.
They absolutely contributed to mission success / failure. They are now the 557th Weather Wing out of Offutt AFB. The time period I refer to is Iraq / Afghanistan / other. I can only imagine what they can do now. I honestly can't see much room for improvement but I'm sure they have some crazy stuff going now. The best of the best.
gwpercle
Member
In the 1960's - 1970's we had a local forecaster in Baton Rouge , who after standing in front of the map , doing all the graphic's and giving the required forecast ,,, would pick up his umbrella and walk outside ... look around , if he opened and raised the umbrella ... it was raining ! If umbrella was put on shoulder ... Cloudy and it looked like rain ! If umbrella stayed folded and down by his side ... it was clear !
I loved that guy and his umbrella forecasts !
Just looking outside will tell you a lot !
Gary
I loved that guy and his umbrella forecasts !
Just looking outside will tell you a lot !
Gary
sparkyvega
Member
Here's more on weather sensationalism:
nypost.com
‘Real feel’ temps are a real joke — don’t trust sensational heat-index claims
Forecasters’ overuse of “feels like” estimates smacks more of sensationalism than scientific clarity, and plays into a destructive narrative of climate hysteria.
nypost.com
