Great video, Absalom!
Will we ever learn about this Virus !?
- Thread starter Nevada Ed
- Start date
CDC updated their numbers.
CDC updated THEIR numbers three days ago. That accounts for the extremely small death rate among those infected. Less than 1%.
Be safe...be well.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...t-highest-ri&usg=AOvVaw3X2_8078HR9XJDPbpQhfeo
CDC updated THEIR numbers three days ago. That accounts for the extremely small death rate among those infected. Less than 1%.
Be safe...be well.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...t-highest-ri&usg=AOvVaw3X2_8078HR9XJDPbpQhfeo
The CDC numbers are, as they admit, approximations from a relatively small number of reports. Yes, much more expanded testing using the "pooled" sample technique, a system that has been used for biochemical assays for over 40 years (I used it in industry in the late 1970s) will give a more realistic and accurate figure of the numbers involved, but the assay has to be the "gold standard one" where the genetic signature of the virus is amplified and assayed, not the antibody tests which are notorious for errors, and which may only catch an infection after 3 plus weeks with certainty. What must also be noted is that even the genetic test system does not function until a certain level of virus is in the bloodstream, so the gross number of tests is misleading, the figure to be noted is the "confirmed infection rate" within those tests, and that one appears to be increasing. Dave_n
wheelgun28
Member
Serious question, why is it bad for a healthy younger person to get the virus? They have no actual evidence or reinfection. Most vaccines seem to be working with antibodies from people with prior infection.
What does testing nonsymptomatic people do? It's just a test at that moment that won't have a result for days. The test can show ok, but you get infected on the way home from testing? What does the test do?
What does testing nonsymptomatic people do? It's just a test at that moment that won't have a result for days. The test can show ok, but you get infected on the way home from testing? What does the test do?
Lots of maybes and estimates. Numbers can be crunched however suits ones agenda
Severity of disease isn't well understood yet. There's a tentative link to number of ACE-2 receptors that an individual has, but no real means by which to test that ahead of time.
In the ED here, the SARS-COV2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19, has taken young, old, and everywhere in-between. 2 infants died, 24 hours apart, from bilateral double pneumonia with ground glass opacities. No tests done, because none available due to shortages. This disease can steal any of us.
Identifying pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers is essential in breaking the transmission chain. Contact tracing outward from that positive saves lives.
Don't get infected on the way home, wear a mask and please socially-distance.
Please note that there's a difference between the antibody tests, looking for either the IgG or IgM. IgM is produced first, and lasts about 2 weeks or so after recognizing the virus' attack. IgG is developed after about 1.5-2 weeks, and persists for months or possibly years. We're not sure about how long the IgG sticks around in this case.
The PCR test looks for active infection, and takes a bit of time to amplify certain portions to test threshold. This will tell a doc if you're sick with SARS-COV2 or some other flu-neg disease. This can take as little as an hour, but is usually more like 4-6 with throughput.
Please let me know if you have any more Qs.
There is a rather telling story out of Germany that is elaborated on in today's NYT. An infectious disease physician tested people in a particular car parts manufacturer that had had a visit from a Chinese associate who had flown in from China in early February. She apparently had not had symptoms of CoV-2 as known at that time. She infected some of her German cohorts and the physician and her boss submitted a short paper to the New England Journal of Medicine on this. Three hours later another group in Germany but this time from a Bavarian State medical group submitted effectivlely the same finding from another visitor. That paper was not published due to the earlier submission, a very common decision in scientific circles. The Bavarian medical establishment did not want to say asymptomatic transmission as that would have caused a major political problem at the time due to lack of testing capabilities etc. The original paper was severely criticized by the "establishment" as a result. Roughly 2 months later, the original report was now simply a footnote in the fuller paper published by the Bavarian Medical Establishment saying that asymptomatic transmission could occur.
The moral is, you do not know who has the virus and is asymptomatic but can pass it on.
In addition, later studies showed that a person with symptoms can "excrete" virus between 24 and 48 hours before they exhibit those symptoms, irrespective of severity.
Hence the mask wearing recommendations. "To protect others from you!" Dave_n
The moral is, you do not know who has the virus and is asymptomatic but can pass it on.
In addition, later studies showed that a person with symptoms can "excrete" virus between 24 and 48 hours before they exhibit those symptoms, irrespective of severity.
Hence the mask wearing recommendations. "To protect others from you!" Dave_n
I also see that folks who recovered from COVID can get re-infected with it, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of antibody immunity. What if immunity to covid-19 doesn't last? | MIT Technology Review
Last edited:
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2006
- Messages
- 3,277
- Reaction score
- 2,584
My neighbors returned from the hospital after a two week stay. The wife lost 15 lbs while there. We had a discussion over the back yard fence (20 feet apart and yelling at each other). The best they guess is they were both infected while at the ER with their youngest grandson. No mask, no gloves and they were so worried about him they did not make the connection until later.
Strange thing is the young man actually had scarlet fever. I got their grocery list and delivered the goods onto the cars front hood. I am glad they are home but what an eye awakening event. They still don't know what the hospital bill is going to be.
Strange thing is the young man actually had scarlet fever. I got their grocery list and delivered the goods onto the cars front hood. I am glad they are home but what an eye awakening event. They still don't know what the hospital bill is going to be.
Glad they are recovering! Kudos to you for looking after them. Well done!!
DeathGrip
US Veteran
What if. But. Maybe. Could be.
Great choices all.
Great choices all.
Several years ago I helped investigate an accident on I-40 where a father and his grown son were shredded alongside their van and travel trailer in front of their wives an children by an 18 wheeler. The driver had just passed a car and was checking his righthand mirror and drifted 28 inches right of the edgeline and struck the two, trapping them between the side of his truck and their van at 70 mph.
What if the trucker hadn't changed lanes, nor checked his mirror? But maybe the decedents shouldn't have been legally changing a tire off the roadway. Maybe they should have stayed 1 minute longer at breakfast; could be they wouldn't have been killed and mangled in front their loved ones.
If this accident had been a certainty, the decedents would have chosen to be somewhere else. But they could no more known of their coming accident than you or I know if we have been exposed to someone with COVID-19 and who is asymptomatic. But what you and I can do is use the knowledge of best counter-COVID practices to reasonably minimize our risk of becoming infected or of infecting others.
Real certainty about future events is beyond human capacity; rational people do their best to reduce unnecessary, reasonably obvious risks.
What if the trucker hadn't changed lanes, nor checked his mirror? But maybe the decedents shouldn't have been legally changing a tire off the roadway. Maybe they should have stayed 1 minute longer at breakfast; could be they wouldn't have been killed and mangled in front their loved ones.
If this accident had been a certainty, the decedents would have chosen to be somewhere else. But they could no more known of their coming accident than you or I know if we have been exposed to someone with COVID-19 and who is asymptomatic. But what you and I can do is use the knowledge of best counter-COVID practices to reasonably minimize our risk of becoming infected or of infecting others.
Real certainty about future events is beyond human capacity; rational people do their best to reduce unnecessary, reasonably obvious risks.
Last edited:
