WHAT THE HECK HAPPENED?!!

[rct269]

This has been rattling around in my head for a good while off and on. I've asked a few folks about it, but no help---just shrugs, and telling me to count my blessings.

So---in the beginning is an SWCA annual meeting----Dallas maybe---way back. I'm wandering around the gun room, and here's two M&P targets---4 screw guns (pre 5 screw 4 screw guns). I don't have any of these----which is a good enough reason to get some. I buy them both---paid something on the order of $6-800---for both (!!)---and these are pretty nice guns.

Now the reason I put exclamation marks after "both" up there is because after I decided it'd be best to leave behind a pile of money rather than a pile of guns, and called David Carroll to tend to it---he did just that. It took awhile, but they're all gone----and each one of these guns sold for A BUNCH MORE than I paid----A BUNCH!!!!

Here's exactly what they are, and what David sold them for.

.38 M&P Second Model Target (shipped August 8, 1902)----$2,750

.38 M&P Model of 1902 First Change Target (shipped February 26, 1906)-$2,265

Is this just a dumb luck thing for me---and a bad luck thing for the folks who sold them to me, or did some strange thing happen in the marketplace that I missed altogether?

Ralph Tremaine

 

[austintexas]

I think it's called inflation. I quit buying 5 screw M28s when they started to cost more than $250. Now at the central Texas gunshows any halfway decent 28 seem to be bringing around $1200. The $50-$75 M10s are $450 and up, older ones are even higher. All I can say is I'm glad I bought some fairly rare Smiths when they were released : 53s, K32s etc.
SWCA 892

 

[M_conrad_0311]

Some folks have a knack for investing the right examples and caring for them properly. It would be easy to chalk it up to good fortune, but there is a lot of work the results of your sale. First, after years of reading, handling, and speaking with other collectors, your mind has realized what an exceptional or unique example is. Secondly, you have learned to properly care and work on your investment. I guess we could call this feeding and nurturing. You allowed for an appropriate amount of time for your work to grow. Finally, you have wisely chosen the right person to oversee the transfer of your investment.

The greatest part of all of this for you, is that you have a passion for your guns! You purchased and cared for them because they bring you joy. You want to know everything about them. You enjoy sharing what you have learned with others.

In summation, this did not just happen. You have been properly rewarded for your well studied passion. I know the money is a great reward, but I would also like to thank you for all that you have shared with me and others. You have also invested in the future of Smith & Wesson collecting by infecting others with your passion. Thank you for always being available to answer even the dumbest of questions. Congratulations on a greatly deserved "return on ivestment "

 

[Heinz]

Ralph, thanks for posting that. That was a smart investment. Are you gloating just a little bit?

 

[Hawg Rider]

Most of the vintage S&W revolvers that I've purchased over the years have at least doubled in value (according to what I see here on the Forum, on GB, and at local gun shows). Even very recent purchases have already increased by 25% over what I paid. I'm not sure that this trend will continue, but it sure helps when I try to convince the wife that I need another gun!

 

[glenwolde]

How long ago was "way back"?

 

[THE PILGRIM]

Sometimes you’re Smart.
Other times you’re Lucky.
When the Planets align, you can get Smart and Lucky!
But that’s a rare occurrence.

 

[handejector]

I buy them both---paid something on the order of $6-800---for both (!!)---and these are pretty nice guns.

$6-800 for 2 used guns that did not cost over $50 each brand new??
Are you crazy?

 

[rct269]

Gloating? A reasonable question, but no----just curious to the point of being dumbfounded!

Inflation? Sure----or at least a reasonable thought, but these guns were sold almost four years ago----BEFORE "the Fed" DRASTICALLY increased the money supply. And not that I think nobody knows this, but inflation isn't about higher prices, it's about drastic increases in the money supply-------as in reducing the value of the money---such that it takes more of it to buy something today than it did yesterday---as in "Econ 101". Higher prices are a symptom of lower value money---not the real problem.

And here's a kicker: One of these guns was bought by a fellow we'll call nobody's business except his---and he's one we regard as a hip dude---as in when he talks, people sit up and take notice-----pretty much every time he has something to say---one of those who's been there and done that---and one who's Momma didn't raise no dumb kids! Not only that, but he regards the gun as something special----and if I was so gouch as to say his name, you'd recognize it----RIGHT NOW!!

So---all that leaves us with the conclusion the folks (a pair of folks) I bought the guns from were as dumb as a rock---and that doesn't seem likely. These were two older gentlemen---older, as in been there and done that when it comes to gun collecting----kind of like the one who bought one of these things I mentioned up above.

When was Dallas? I clearly don't remember, but someone here knows exactly when/where each and every SWCA meeting was---right from the get-go. The best I've got is it was in the earlier 2000's---after 2000 (Knoxville)---which was my first one. And as an aside, I'm not even sure it was Dallas---and push come to shove, it doesn't make any difference where it was.

And as another aside, I met John Watts at the Knoxville meeting. We hit it off first crack out of the box. We decided it was because we weren't competitors. He collected antiques. I collected targets. The only overlap was the the first targets---and I already had those. After that, we went to the meetings together. I'm from, call it Chattanooga---he's from Cincinnati. If/when the meeting was beyond either of those locations for either of us, one goes to the other's home on Monday. Tuesday's travel day to the meeting site---worked like a charm---right up until that no good lout up and died on me! The meetings weren't much fun after that.

The mystery continues------------

Ralph Tremaine

 

[gunbarrel]

Inflation is a big part; but, not all of it.

For example, in 1985, a S&W 686 revolver cost $250. In 2023 dollars, due to inflation, that translates into $700--a difference of an extra $450.

However, the current MSRP is $980. That's an additional $280 NOT counting inflation.

This means that labor cost, material cost, transportation cost, legal issues, supply and demand, and other factors also play a big role.

To calculate the effect of inflation on prices, click on the Inflation Calculator on this table:

The Current Inflation Rate is 3.4%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet

 

[dave1918a2]

Best thing I can say is " Some people get lucky, some people don't."

 

[mikepriwer]

Ralph, and others

Its all about the printing of too many dollars, chasing a finite number of items to buy. If the government had stuck to the constitutional basis of money, prices would not be able to go up: a dollar is defined as one ounce of silver, and twenty dollars is defined as one ounce of gold.

Gold and silver are very difficult to mine, in any significant quantity. Only about 3500 tons of gold, world-wide, are mined every year. If a government is hell-bent on expanding the economy, or fighting wars, or providing health care to everyone, it has to spend a whole bunch more money than it can take in, from taxes.

In our case, the annual federal budget deficit is around one to two trillion dollars a year - every year now. Paper , and now electronic, money, is the only way to go. Clearly there is an upper limit on how high they can raise taxes. It all goes somewhere, and eventually it shows up in the prices of everything: shoes, eggs, milk, guns, automobiles - everything.

Against the barometer of gold, which the constitution sets at 20 dollars an ounce, it now costs about 2,050 for exactly that same ounce of gold. This amounts to an increase in the price by a factor of 100 !!!

Or, to put it another way, the dollar has been devalued by a factor of 100. New S&W revolvers that were $10 back in the day, are now over $1000. That is a factor of 100.

This is a very old phenomenon, going back thousands of years. Back then, money was metal coins. When the government needed more money than it could raise in taxes, it started clipping bits of metal off the coins. Then it would clip more, sometimes by drilling out the center of the coins.

In short, the dollar has been clipped, until today, there is only 1/100th of it left. On average, everything costs about 100 times more that it used to. This is a relentless process, happening slowly each and every year.

This is the process of inflation.

Regards, Mike Priwer

 

[Doug M.]

Remember also that the growth of internet marketing means that a person who would otherwise never be able to search a table halfway across the country now can. The increased competition wills have an effect, in part because the folks in higher priced areas of the county are willing to pay more than some local buyers. It is also possible for a savvy buyer to do deep dive research on the worth of any given model.

 

[Bo Rich]

What the heck happened? We all got old, and we forgot how long ago we bought the gun!

 

[RKmesa]

Love the discussion above. I also believe that what you bought matters. Some items just appreciate faster than others. Even in the last 10 years, the price of pre-war Target M&Ps has grown significantly. And I understand why - they are just so dang cool.

 

[Heinz]

rct, since you are one of the gurus on S&W target models, are you seeing that kind of increase across the board on target revolvers. Here in South Carolina, I guestimate S&W pre lock revolvers are going up 15% to 20% per year, Except for 3" magnums, and those prices are silly, but I do not see many of those 3" being sold here, based on being the same dealers with the same guns over a couple of years

 

[22hipower]

As others have noted, mostly a phenomenon of inflation. You did about as well with those two S&Ws as you would have investing in the stock market over the same period. Which, compared to the alternatives available to you at the time, makes your S&W investment a pretty good one. You could have stayed in cash, and your $800 would now be worth considerably less. You could have put it in a savings account and it would now be worth more than the cash alternative. . . .but not much. The question now should be, now that you've beaten inflation for 23 years what are you going to do with your gains? Cash/savings accounts will likely render your nice gain to something considerably smaller over a comparable period going forward. A continuing challenge to stay ahead of inflation but hard assets, be it S&Ws or shares of stock representing hard assets, are likely going to be far better than the cash selling them provides.

The guy who when asked "what happened to those millions" answered "I spent most of it on women and whiskey. . . .and wasted the rest" may have had a point.

Jeff
SWCA #1457

 

[rct269]

rct, since you are one of the gurus on S&W target models, are you seeing that kind of increase across the board on target revolvers. Here in South Carolina, I guestimate S&W pre lock revolvers are going up 15% to 20% per year, Except for 3" magnums, and those prices are silly, but I do not see many of those 3" being sold here, based on being the same dealers with the same guns over a couple of years

I'm not seeing anything---haven't for almost four years now, and if I was seeing anything, it wouldn't be anything from beyond the end of the 5 screws----mid 1950's. Coming up four years ago I decided it best to leave behind a pile of money rather than a pile of guns----figured the guns'd be better off too. I made one phone call--to David Carroll---"Come get this stuff, and dump it!" He did, and he did. He dumped the everyday stuff on Gun Broker-----"Wham, Bam, Thank you Ma'am!" The special stuff he sold one on one. That's his stock in trade---he not only knows how to sell this stuff, he knows who to sell it to. It's almost comical, but he sold one gun for just a tic under $10,000 with one phone call---Blah-Blah-Blah----"I'll take it if it's not over $10,000." Done and done! All done took just over three years----the last check came rolling in early last year---and that was another one of those whoppers. Whoppers sometimes (often) take awhile. It was worth the wait!

So how come nothing beyond the end of the 5 screws? The end of the 5 screws mark an end---and a beginning. What ended was the philosophy of "We will be successful if we build our product to be the best possible for the price." What begin was the philosophy of "We will be successful if we build our product for the lowest possible cost."

Is that something written down someplace---some book or the Wall Street Journal? Nope, that's me---my observation---as a gun nut---and a business man----probably more gun nut. Been there---done that----got the tee shirt!

Ralph Tremaine

 

[Model19man]

I read the title of this thread. Then before opening it, I said yes I said that at the grocery store yesterday. And at the gas station today!

 

[Bald1]

Something quadrupled in value over the course of 20 plus years. Nothing to see here. Nothing unusual. Happens with a lot of things. Especially collectibles especially guns. My Ruger 77/22 Hornet that I paid $400 for brand new in 1998 now sells for $1200 plus. It’s just a random mass produced rifle.