10 year stopping power study

[Biggfoot44]

Here's the Catch- 22 :

If it's not repeatable , it's not Scientific

Ignoring Real World results ( with meaningful sample size ) is foolish .

No matter what methodology , or what conclusions , a majority of readers will strongly disagree . For different & conflicting reasons , but cumulatively disagree .

Most of the legitimate criticisms of Ellifritz's study have been mentioned . There is one thing I do want to commend him for , that usually isn't given enough consideration .

Giving attention to the rate of Failures equally with incapacitions and fatalities .

 

[Biggfoot44]

Excuse the seperate posting , but kinda separate topics :

Distance really isn't a factor with handguns . Few handgun fights take place at 50 yds plus , if not 100 plus where velocity has dropped enough to be meaningful .

Other than for a while about 2 years ago there was a fad with the gangbangers in Baltimore that once the Shootee was down on the ground , they would run up , and dump the remaining rounds in the head from arm's length .


From the various information that I personally take as relevant , the results with .32acp and .380acp are very close , with the .32 having other indirectly favorable aspects . Take this you to what extent I'm praising .32acp , and how much is my unabashed dislike of .380 .

Both are significantly less than even subcompact 9mm . Simultaneously , both are far superior to either .25acp or .22lr ( from compact handgun ) .

**********************

And Yes ! Once upon a decade , I did change my opinions and practices due to stopping power studies .

 

[S-W4EVER]

Looks like a repackaging of Marshall and Sanow publications

I really enjoyed reading their stuff back in the day...

 

[RCL-09]

I really enjoyed reading their stuff back in the day...

I did too. I know there were shortcomings with some of their "data" but it was still very informative.

 

[Greyman50]

Wow, no one has mentioned the infamous “ LEO” study/tests in the 70’s…

 

[sigp220.45]

Wow, no one has mentioned the infamous “ LEO” study/tests in the 70’s…

Or the alleged “Strasbourg Goat Study”.

 

[edl]

Look closely, it uses bad methodology. Bad methodology or design leads to an inaccurate and invalid study and conclusion.

The person who wrote it, Gregg Ellifritz is an amazing resource on defensive issues. He is a great teacher with a strong background in Law enforcement and training, and has written some of the best things that I have read on a wide variety of topics. His background, skill, and teaching ability cannot be questioned. I can appreciate the amount of time and effort he put into this. However, in the end I am afraid that I don't agree with his conclusion.

By his own description, the author of the study tried to record every shooting he could find. By definition this includes situations where an armed person shot an unarmed person, or shot someone who was not interested in fighting him in the first place, or not very serious about posing a threat. All of those fall into the heading of "every shooting he could find."

The author of the report "scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot."

This is a huge problem because you often don't get accurate information about the gun or caliber used, number of shots fired or hit, where they hit, circumstances of the shooting, etc. In most cases you don't have accurate information to conclude when the person being shot stops. So you absolutely cannot include these accounts in any statistical study.

Even if the information was accurate, in most cases all you know is how many rounds were fired--not if the person shot was stopped.

Further, even if the data were accurate, the premise of this study is flawed in the way it compares dissimilar shootings.

Shooting someone who isn't a serious attacker, who may not be armed, and is afraid of you isn't the same as shooting an of objective driven violent criminal attacker.

If you look at this author's logic, if two drunks at a bar get into a pushing match and one pulls out a .25 auto and shoots the other once and the man who was shot backs off, it counts as a one shot stop.

But if a police officer draws his 9mm loaded with Federal HST JHPs and as fires multiple quick shots at an attacker in the manner in which he was likely trained--it counts as a one-shot failure, or a situation where multiple shots were required to stop someone.

I submit, would you rather rely on a .25 auto for self defense or the 9mm loaded with Federal HSTs?

I think it is admirable what the person who wrote this study tried to do, but I am afraid the methodology wasn't quite there. I would not try to extrapolate any of his results on what would work for me if confronted by a violent criminal.

 

[giants1]

Good points. In addition, Ellifritz says that he carries a Glock 19 90% of the time while off-duty.

Another point is that more than 1/2 of the shootings involving 9mm were FMJs. He didn't explain why the high prevalence of FMJs, when JHPs are more effective, but maybe this explains at least part: another study he did was of criminals' use of handguns, and 80% used FMJs when shooting 9mm.

citation:
Criminals and the Guns They Carry | Active Response Training


However, he agreed that the results would have favored 9mm more had more JHPs been included. I wonder why he didn't filtered the results to show the effects of just 9mm JHPs?

 

[John Patrick]

Good points. In addition, Ellifritz says that he carries a Glock 19 90% of the time while off-duty.

Another point is that more than 1/2 of the shootings involving 9mm were FMJs. He didn't explain why the high prevalence of FMJs, when JHPs are more effective, but maybe this explains at least part: another study he did was of criminals' use of handguns, and 80% used FMJs when shooting 9mm.

citation:
Criminals and the Guns They Carry | Active Response Training


However, he agreed that the results would have favored 9mm more had more JHPs been included. I wonder why he didn't filtered the results to show the effects of just 9mm JHPs?

The high percentage of 9mm FMJ is due to cost.

I work at a gun store Sunday mornings and a majority of customers who buy a decent 9mm pistol for protection won’t spend the extra ~$30 on a box of HP ammo, but they’ll buy a box or two of FMJ.

 

[Muss Muggins]

My office is in my LGS. According to the customers I’ve met that may or may not solemnly swear that they are up to no good, FMJ is popular in the streets because it’s cheap, feeds all the time, and achieves the intended goal. They use other words, of course . . .

The high percentage of 9mm FMJ is due to cost.

I work at a gun store Sunday mornings and a majority of customers who buy a decent 9mm pistol for protection won’t spend the extra ~$30 on a box of HP ammo, but they’ll buy a box or two of FMJ.

 

[Old Arkansawyer]

Deer poacherrs in my neck of the woods mostly used .22 long rifle/.22 mag with some using cheap old military rifles of various calibers. 1 shot kills were quite common.
I've taken 2 deer with hand guns, Ruger Black Hawk in .44 mag and
S&W .44 special. Both using 240 gr semi wad cutters, factory ammo.
Both were shot at 25 yards give or take 3 yards. My stand was an old
deadfall.
The one I shot using the .44 special jumped and half way ran about
30-35 yards before staggering to a halt and went down. When
butchered it was found the top chambers of it's heart had been
hit. I'm saying all this because I think deer are tougher than humans
and that as some have said shot placement is #1

 

[6518John]

citation:
Criminals and the Guns They Carry | Active Response Training

That is one of the best self defense articles I have ever read.

 

[crazyphil]

6518John - In place of Don't Eat The Big White Mints, our range has a
sign that says If you can't hit the target keep it in the holster.

 

[oddshooter]

It seems clear to me that the important part of stopping power is
not what caliber you shoot;
but WHO you shot.

Some folks (lefties) will stop with a hit on the pinky toe.
Other folks just keep on coming.

Prescut

 

[BlackRhino]

Perhaps the only way to get real answers would be to set up a modern version of the Thompson / LaGarde testing originally done around the turn of last century on goats and pigs, only with better control and data collection. I doubt that would fly today with groups like PETA. Probably have a hard time getting enough human volunteers.

So, instead, we combine personal experience, what we have read or seen, personal likes and dislikes, and what passes for common sense when we pick a self defense handgun.

And the most effective choice ends up being simply having a handgun with you, and your potential attacker being so informed. Can't quote any specific statistics, but my "experience" (see above factors) after a long LE career, is that in the vast majority of cases, a potential attacker will beat feet when he becomes aware his intended victim is holding a firearm in his hand, and is willing to use it. Without a shot being fired.

The rare outlier is the thug who, for whatever reason, decides to risk death and continue the attack. That's when your willingness to use whatever you are carrying, to hit center mass, and to be willing to keep firing until the threat is down is what will save your bacon, with caliber and bullet brand becoming distant secondary considerations. JMHO.

Larry

I have had LEO friends who served in a number of different locations tell me roughly the same thing.

One of them also said, the moment bullets start flying, everyone scatters and no one pays any attention to caliber.

_Point Blank_ by Gary Kleck is an interesting read. Kleck does a pretty broad study of the scientific research on many aspects of the firearms issue. If memory serves, he stated that 98% of the time when a citizen produces a firearm, the bad guy runs away or surrenders and no shots are fired. Only in 2% does the “good guy” need to shoot.

So these statistics strongly support what I have heard anecdotally and what Larry said.

 

[sigp220.45]

It seems clear to me that the important part of stopping power is
not what caliber you shoot;
but WHO you shot.

Some folks (lefties) will stop with a hit on the pinky toe.
Other folks just keep on coming.

Prescut

I have worked a ton of shootings.

I never had a single one where the shootee continued doing whatever caused him to get shot after getting shot. Not once. Not ever. Apparently, getting shot is a religious experience. I’m not sure of their political leanings, but I doubt many were “lefties”.

I’m sure it may have happened somewhere sometime. I haven’t seen it, and would love to hear from someone who has.

 

[giants1]

I have had LEO friends who served in a number of different locations tell me roughly the same thing.

One of them also said, the moment bullets start flying, everyone scatters and no one pays any attention to caliber.

_Point Blank_ by Gary Kleck is an interesting read. Kleck does a pretty broad study of the scientific research on many aspects of the firearms issue. If memory serves, he stated that 98% of the time when a citizen produces a firearm, the bad guy runs away or surrenders and no shots are fired. Only in 2% does the “good guy” need to shoot.

So these statistics strongly support what I have heard anecdotally and what Larry said.

I wonder if there are any studies showing that displaying different firearms are more or less effective in ending the situation without having to shoot. I would think that an AK47 would be more persuasive than a shotgun which would be more persuasive than a hand gun. And what effect, if any, would a bayonet mounted onto a long gun have?

 

[16thVACav]

And what effect, if any, would a bayonet mounted onto a long gun have?

Uncontrollable laughter?

 

[Heinz]

I have worked a ton of shootings.

I never had a single one where the shootee continued doing whatever caused him to get shot after getting shot. Not once. Not ever. Apparently, getting shot is a religious experience. I’m not sure of their political leanings, but I doubt many were “lefties”.

I’m sure it may have happened somewhere sometime. I haven’t seen it, and would love to hear from someone who has.

The FBI 1986 Miami incident comes to mind. However, Law Enforcement Officers engaging desperate felons is a totally different set of circumstances than ordinary citizens in self-defense.

As was noted earlier, a good study requires a a constant data set. The next best thing is common experience. The most consistent experience, as noted in the quote here, is that the criminals tend to quit when you start poking holes in them.

 

[LCC]

I’m not sure of their political leanings, but I doubt many were “lefties”.
.

And you would right, as far more guns are owned by republicans and independents than lefties, who tend to be anti-gun, and more concerned about how many Instagram likes their getting.
Gun ownership is far more common among Republicans than Democrats | Pew Research Center

And the ten states with the most handgun shootings? All red states.
Gun Violence by State 2022