A few thoughts on various posts above:
1) Synthetic versus organic ballistic gelatin and the Lucky Gunner tests.
Synthetic versus organic makes little difference if the gelatin isn't calibrated. But I don't see the need get too hung up on it because:
a) the human body is't very homogenous - gelatin is just used for comparative testing, and has comparatively little validity compared to a human target;
b) the concept behind gelatin is to just have a reference medium to reflect the relative performance of loads to other loads that seemed to do well in the field;
c) the 12-18" range for the FBI standard is rather wide - wide enough to accommodate the difference between 10%, 20% and synthetic gelatin for all practical purposes;
d) I don't get to hung up about an inch or two of over penetration in gel, given that human skin creates about the same resistance to an exiting bullet as about 4" of gelatin; and
e) I don't get too concerned about an inch or two of under penetration as the 12" minimum is based on LEO shoots from odd angles, such as through an arm or at a suspect quartering away form the officer - rather than the face to face shots that occur in armed citizen self defense shoots.
If you as an armed citizen are shooting someone turned 90 degree to 180 degrees away from you, you better have great lawyer and a lot of money as it'll be hard to demonstrate there was in fact still an imminent threat. One of the few exceptions would be when you've side stepped off the line of advance of someone who is charging you with a knife,where the shots tend to be into the side as the assailant passes and then as you continue to side step and the assailant continues to try to turn into you.
2) Which .357 Magnum load to use for self defense?
It really doesn't make much difference which .357 Magnum load you shoot some one with as nearly all of them will produce adequate penetration to the vital organs. Even a poor .357 Magnum load will perform as well or better than the best .38 Special loads, and most people don't have qualms about carrying .38 Special.
The load that will work best is a load that you can shoot accurately, and control well enough for rapid follow up shots.
3) One size doesn't fit all and there is no "best" load for every revolver or shooter.
A video above showed a semi-jacketed 110 gr hollow point shedding some lead and only penetrating 9 1/4" after being fired from a 4.2" GP-100. I suspect it would have performed much better from a 2 1/8" snub nose .357 Magnum due to a velocity that would have been on the order of 150-200 fps slower. The lower velocity would have resulted in slower and less violent expansion with greater penetration.
That *might* make it a poor choice for a 4" .357 Magnum, but it would be a much better choice for a light J-magnum frame .357 with a 2 1/8" barrel. However, even in the 4" revolver, it still created a massive wound cavity and penetrated 9 1/4". The weight retention is incidental as it's the retained weight that drives the penetration, so you can't knock it once for losing too much weight, and then knock it again for poor penetration - one is related to the other. The fact is it expanded well and then cut a significant hole 9 1/4" deep. Measure 9 1/$" deep in any place on your body and then ask yourself whether you want to get shot with that. Then consider it would probably do 12" in a 2" barrel. and ask yourself the question again.
4) the odds of getting an incapacitating hit are greater the more shots you fire. I that regard a low recoil load with a 110 gr bullet that the shooter can shoot more accurately and with faster follow up shots will often be more effective than a heavier/hotter load where the shooter can only get 1 or 2 rounds on target compared to perhaps 3 or 4 rounds. Bigger isn't always better as quantity has a quality all it's own.
5) Hollow points have narrow range of velocity where they give optimum performance.
If you look at the Lucky Gunner data and compare various bullets you see this in action.
For example Hornady designed the FTX bullet to expand at fairly low short barrel velocities. You'll note the .38 Special 2" and 4" barrel data shows the 110 gr FTX penetrating comfortably within the 12"-18" range and expanding about 80% of the time. You'll also notice the .38 + P load for the 2" expanding 100% of the time and meeting or exceeding 12" 80% of the time. In contrast the +P load in a 4" barrel has beautiful expansion but under penetrates 60% of the time (although we're still talking 10"-12" penetration that I wouldn't sneeze at).
You however will not see the 110 grr FTX in .357 Mag as it expands too much, too soon at .357 Mag velocities and penetration is compromised. The 110 gr Cor Bon bullet in .357 Mag is a much heavier constructed bullet.
If you look at the .38 Special data you'll see numerous rounds that under penetration or expand inconsistently. There are 19 loads that don;t demonstrate 100% relabel expansion, and 12 of them produce almost no expansion - including all but two of the "FBI loads" - and those only expanded reliably at 4" velocities.
The point here is that bullet design, design velocity and the actual velocity in your revolver all play a part - particularly in a marginal caliber like the .38 Special.
In contrast, if you look at the .357 data the only loads that fail to expand are the 140 gr Leverloution loads that are not designed or intended for revolver use, the 125 gr gold dots that did not expand at 2" velocities, and the 158 gr gold dots that plugged with denim at both 2" and 4" velocities.
Only three .357 Magnum loads under penetrated - Remington's 125 gr semi jacket (and then only in a 2" barrel), the Glaser power ball (where it's a feature not a bug), and the Buffalo Bore short barrel 125 gr low flash load (and only 1 of 5 bullets under penetrated).
Most of the loads that seriously over penetrated as under expanded.
The exception is the 158 gr XTP, and that's not a real surprise as the XTP bullet is designed for moderate expansion and maximum penetration. The combination of .357 Mag velocity, moderate expansion and 158 gr sectional density leads to predictable results. The 158 gr Remington has similar issues, for similar reason, but only in the 4" barrel.
However, in the 125 gr weight, the Hornady's performance is near perfect in the 4" barrel, and actually over penetrates a bit in the 2" barrel due to some under expansion (.48" compared to .54") at the lower velocity.
6) I focused on the 125 gr XTP in part because I use the 125 gr XTP in hand loads that produce right around 1300 fps in my 2.5" .357 Magnum revolvers, which is right in the sweet spot for the bullet, giving reliable, full expansion and gel penetration comfortably between 12" and 18".
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In the big picture, there are not many loads that perform badly in .357 Magnum, and there are essentially no self defense loads (other than Glaser power balls and the Remington 125 gr semi jacket) that under penetrate.
If you stay away from 158 gr bullets and the 125 gr Gold dot that all over penetrate, and also avoid the 25 gr Remington semi-jacket that under penetrates in a 2" barrel, you can't go too far wrong in either the 2" or 4" barrel.