When attempting these sort of predictions, you have to take into account California's goofy laws. Each new variant must be tested by California before they will allow it to be sold in that state. I understand that to be a very costly proposition for the manufacturers. The molds have long since been paid for.
The M&P pistol line, with the exception of the "original" Shield, hasn't been approved for CA sale as a new gun for several years. As it was explained by someone from S&W (during an armorer class), there came a point when CA decided that the ongoing changes and improvements being incorporated into the existing M&P pistols essentially made them "new" models (which hadn't been tested by the state).
That being the case, they'd have to be submitted for testing and approval ...
and that happened after the micro-stamping had taken effect (become certified in 2013), so they'd also have to meet that requirement. S&W was not willing to try and adopt micro-stamping technology.
So ... as the older M&P's in production were replaced with what CA felt were new models (meaning substantial improvements), and the original versions were replaced by the newer, refined models, the older M&P's dropped off the Roster at the expiration of the previous approval.
Fortunately, the new Shield 9/.40 and the SD 9/.40 had already been submitted and approved for CA Roster sale before the micro-stamping law took effect. They just slipped in under the wire, so to speak, about a year before the micro-stamping provision took effect.
Obviously, the new 2.0 Shield won't be added to the CA Roster because of the changes compared to the original Shield. However, as long as S&W is willing to continue making the original Shield, S&W can renew it (and the SD) each year on the Roster and CA buyers can get them.
Of course, LE still have the exemption from being required to buy their guns off the Roster ... and the state made a change to the Penal Code's exemption to add some more "types" of agencies with LE powers to the LE exemption.
I only glanced at the change adding those different types of agencies to the exemption earlier this year, but if I was reading it right (and the online chatter I read was accurate), legislators also added language preventing those agencies being added to the exemption status (and their employees who buy handguns using their new exemption) from ever selling any off-Roster duty guns to private citizens as "used" guns. This would mark a change from how the general classifications of peace officer have been able to sell their privately bought off-Roster handguns to non-LE buyers through FFL transfers.
It takes a scorecard and constant attention to keep up with how the firearms laws change in this state.
