OK, since you want to do a detailed cost analysis, lets talk about the OPPORTUNITY COST of having 3x more funds tied up in your stockpile of factory ammo, versus my having only 1/3 as much tied up in my stockpile of reloading components....
As previously stated the savings per round will allow you to quickly recoup the equipment costs, if you actually shoot more than occasionally and shoot anything other than cheap 9mm.
Ok lets talk about that. Factory loaded ammo has value just ask all the people who hoarded and resold 22lr during the last shortage. You can sell it on forums, you can sell it at guns shows, your local shooting club etc... People will buy it if you price it with the market. It will hold its value a lot better than reloading components.
Once you purchase components and open the container of powder it becomes worthless to anyone but you. Would you buy powder in an open container at a gun show? I surely wouldn't. Primers in boxes ok they will hold value but you can only sell it locally because you can't ship it. Ever try to ship powder or primers as an individual? Brass is worth some $$$ but mainly as scrap metal. The actually bullets will be worth something but not what you paid for it.
Even worse once your have added your labor to the powder, brass, bullets & primer and actually made a round it becomes worthless to anyone but you. It is ironic that when you reload components into ammo it actually looses value. You have added in time and labor and have something worth less then the sum of the individual parts. Again ever try to sell your reloads at a gun show? Ever buy some random guys reloads at a gun show? I would never try to sell my work product and certainly would not buy someone elses.
So if you were going to stockpile something that will hold its value and if there is a real shortage again has a real chance to go up in value loaded ammo is a much better bet. Those who hoarded 22lr did a not better than the 3x you are stating factory ammo costs over reloaded components. Personally if you are buying smart on both ends it is really closer to 2X but either way my point stands. Not a good bet IMHO but certainly better than reloading components or reloaded ammo.
Yes if you shoot enough you will recover the cost of your equipment but that does not mean you should ignore it in your cost calculations does it? I am not saying that people shouldn't reload or that there aren't savings I am simply trying to illustrate that the savings that people often quote in threads like this do not account for all the "cost" factors that go into reloading and that the numbers need to be taken in context and with a grain of salt.
I reload. I think it is worth my time but I would never tell someone how much money "they" are going to save doing it.
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