The Russians have gone in

[biku324]

I do note the Finns and even the stubbornly neutral Swedes are considering NATO membership newly (as of yesterday). Putin then threatened them, as if he could do anything about it.

Vlad needs the Novichok nap.

 

[Beemerguy53]

Beemerguy,

As much as I like your posting, I
fear there exists already in the
world leaders and countries who'll
say, "Well, Putin hasn't dumped in
my yard. We can work with Putin."

A strong club exist consisting
of like minded dictators who only
see the world's people as those
who must be subjugated.

I agree completely with you...there are lot of evil, calculating monsters around the world who've welcomed Putin's friendship and aid, and who have looked the other way at his misdeeds.

I'm speculating -- hoping really -- that this particular event will be different, that this *totally unprovoked * invasion of another country, will prompt such an overwhelmingly negative response by the world, that even those who've sucked up to Putin will distance themselves from him.

But who knows? I'm just a news junkie with a high school diploma...this might turn out like all the other stuff he's done and gotten away with...but I hope not...

 

[Beemerguy53]

I do note the Finns and even the stubbornly neutral Swedes are considering NATO membership newly (as of yesterday). Putin then threatened them, as if he could do anything about it.

Vlad needs the Novichok nap.

Yeah, my jaw dropped when I read that Sweden might seek to join NATO...that would be a huge, huge step...

 

[oldbrownhat]

My gf, who is is of Russian descent, and her 93 y.o. mother, an ex-academic who is still very much with us, are following this with - to put it mildly - intense interest, and a lot of nail biting. Sandra has been following a lot of it on C-Span and also on Twitter, disciplining herself to stick with reliable feeds like AP and Reuters, and not going down rabbit holes. She described it as "terrifying" in our conversation this morning. She has a number of friends in Europe but hasn't heard much from them so far; as she figures they are still somewhat in shock.

We agreed that we are very lucky to be geographically far from the action, although still subject to the fallout (hopefully not of the "n" kind), one of which I will no doubt see at the gas station later today.

"May you live in interesting times" ? No, thanks – "Include me out."

 

[Kinman]

Since we are still talking...I agree that Putin has decided there is no better time for him to attempt his "Big Move." In his mid sixties he has nothing to loose sitting on his big pile of money and the ability to run off to any one of the half dozen or so despot ruled countries where his toadies are currently in power. World perception may be the only thing keeping China in check, they like to smile and nod with the hatchet behind their backs. I don't know if Russia's tank development has advanced much beyond what the Iraqiis had but that equipment was blind at night and couldn't shoot on the run, they were decimated...granted they were operated by Camel jockeys but none the less. While I was Germany in the early 70's we worried about the old Fulda Gap scenario, the major reason the old USSR had us outnumbered 10:1 in armor was due mainly to the fact their equipment was garbage and in a sad state of repair. The only thing that used to keep the USSR in check was our Nuclear Subs, they were scared to death of that armada and technology is still in our favor in that regard. I prefer the flavor of koolaid I have been drinking my entire life and will not take part in any scare mongering from any side. In the end we are all together on this old blue marble, we all have children and many of us grandchildren. For me to witness the bloody campaign that Putin, the Saudi Royal Family and Friends, Korea Kim, and Xi in China to name just a few gives me pause to realize there is still plenty of madness out there, they live in their madness with enough supporters to follow them along to make it happen. The only thing that keeps me chugging along with my positive attitude is that eventually enough people will see the madness and turn against it. When the body bags start coming back to Russia, when the economy goes further into collapse, when countries that used to be supporters turn against as we saw in Georgia and One of the Stans, NATO supporters are ramping up support and God Bless them the Ukranians themselves are not going quietly into that dark night. What I find difficult to understand is the willingness of Americans to support Putin in any way, RT media network has many Americans supposedly on its network...Jesse Ventura, William Shatner, Dennis Miller. RT spreading rumors about "Denatzification" of Ukraine, really? I hope some sanity prevails...gotta have hope. American Imperialism is written in our history, 400 years of oppression of people of color, the horrors inflicted on our Native Peoples, assorted wars carried out in the name of Manifest Destiny and the Monroe Doctrine, but we have made some good moves as well and usually it involves dealing with Dictators putting Democracy down. Better Angels...

 

[Beemerguy53]

CNN is reporting right now on some of the acts of insurgency already being undertaken by Ukrainian civilians...

* Rifles and ammo are being distributed to anyone who wants them...

* Citizens are making mass quantities of Molotov cocktails...

* Citizens have charged Russian tanks with bicycles and used them to try to jam the tank treads...

* Some ex-pat Ukrainians are heading back there to join the fight...

God bless these people. They will never surrender, and if they end up ultimately losing, they will at least make Putin pay a terrible price for invading them...

 

[DWalt]

Through Poland's border with Ukraine, I suspect...

But I have to wonder if the Russian response will be to immediately attempt to close the border crossings.

 

[biku324]

They lack the ability from the ground, and it's now clear if one stinking piece of Russian shrapnel from the air lands on a NATO country, it's 'on.'

 

[oldbrownhat]

...They will never surrender, and if they end up ultimately losing, they will at least make Putin pay a terrible price for invading them...

Ironically, just as the Russians did to the Germans in WWII.

 

[Tom S.]

Saw earlier today that the Belgians are sending in 2000 MGs (FN I am sure) plus fuel. And the Germans are going to send 500 stingers and 1000 anti-tank weapons. Exactly how does all that stuff get to the Ukranians?

UPS or FedEx?

 

[Sevens]

Another idea; Ukraine is handing out guns and ammunition to civilians. How are they going to get those guns back? Kindly ask everyone to please return them? I don't think that's gonna happen. A peaceful civilian during the day is an armed terrorist at night.

I've read this three times and I'm still unsure of what you're saying here.

Either I'm missing your point or you are suggesting that handing a rifle to someone makes them wildly prone to becoming a terrorist after dark.

What now? Is this only in Ukraine or does this happen everywhere? Does this happen in North America or is the mental illness averted when you spend your own money to get the firearm…?!

In any case, WHY ever "ask for them back" ? An armed society is a polite society. Why not have your populace armed when they live in a hostile region? Why not have a rifle behind every snowman?

 

[jag312]

I've read this three times and I'm still unsure of what you're saying here.

Either I'm missing your point or you are suggesting that handing a rifle to someone makes them wildly prone to becoming a terrorist after dark.

What now? Is this only in Ukraine or does this happen everywhere? Does this happen in North America or is the mental illness averted when you spend your own money to get the firearm…?!

In any case, WHY ever "ask for them back" ? An armed society is a polite society. Why not have your populace armed when they live in a hostile region? Why not have a rifle behind every snowman?

What I am saying is that Ukraine is arming their civilian population, and it will be impossible to disarm the civilian population. An armed civilian is not under military command. The armed civilian will do whatever he wants to the Russian military. He can be a peaceful shopkeeper during the day, but he will be able to conduct terrorist activities against the Russians at night, or at any time of his choosing. Consider the French Maquis during WW2.


If Russia occupies Ukraine, and wants the civilian population to turn in their guns, they will get the same response that the Ukraine soldiers gave them on Snake Island. Which, by the way, would be the exact same response I would give if anyone demanded that I surrender my guns.

 

[The Last Standing Knight]

Here are some things to keep in mind:

1) TAKE EVERYTHING THE MEDIA SAYS WITH A LARGE DOSE OF SALT! That is pretty much recognized around here. You will never get anything but spin from either side. As much as I loathe to say it, social media right now is probably the only REAL news source in this whole situation and I even question it highly.

2) Putin is not an idiot. He has plans within plans. The western powers have shown weakness and devisiveness both internally and externally for decades. To him, this was the chance of a lifetime. In taking that chance he has painted himself in a corner. He is facing an insurgency that hasn't been seen in Europe since WWII and he knows it. He also realizes if he is defeated or humiliated, he loses face ergo power at home and can quite possibly wind up hanging around a garage in Moscow like Mussolini did in Milan in '45. This is what makes the situation highly dangerous.

3) If Putin goes all the way and orders nukes used, chances are they will be short ranged theatre weapons and not full scale ICBM's. He will do so in Ukraine first both to show the world just how far he will go to accomplish his goals and to take the fight out of Ukraine as we did the Japanese back in '45. Problem is that nukes are "highly problematic" for reasons all of us know. In addition, there will be some response which could quite easily turn Moscow into the 21st century version of Chernobyl. Putin already has an escape plan, count on it. The average Ivan doesn't. I don't know if the Russian people remember just HOW big a price they paid in WWII.

4) The involvement of NATO Forces in combat with Russian forces at this point is inevitable. It will most likely happen when Russian troops attempt to go into Poland or the Czech Republic after resistance fighters. This means ALL NATO members will either have to step up or capitulate to Moscow. Such a capitulation at this point in SOME western allaince countries would be met with "very unhappy populations" and lead down an even darker path. Others will simply shrug and go back to hunting Pokemon.

5) The UN has ALWAYS been little more than a joke not unlike the League of Nations after WWI. Except for resolutions and such, I see nothing close to what it did in Korea back in the 50's...this will be NATO vs. Russians and their allies all the way...that will include China, North Korea, and Iran. The fact that China hasn't gone into Taiwan yet is merely because they are waiting to see how the west will react. If they capitulate to Putin, Taiwan is doomed...and possibly so is Japan. I would pity them going into South Korea.

6) This has a great potential for WWIII. To think otherwise is not smart or prudent. History always repeats itself and this tired old story...with different actors, players, and times is no different. That is the sad part about this whole scenario...everyone loses. One of the reasons I brought up a lot of history in my entry here. I would hope calmer head prevail.

 

[Drm50]

There is only a small window of opportunity for bad guys to do their stuff.
There are a lot of Russian people upset over this war. You would think that people would tire of the state of constant war.
People who plot to deprive others of rights and property shouldn't be tolerated. Most of them have not contributed anything to humanity. Only thing that will keep China from taking Taiwan is it will cost them more than they gain. The American consumer is biggest weapon we have against China.

 

[Beemerguy53]

Here are some things to keep in mind:

1) TAKE EVERYTHING THE MEDIA SAYS WITH A LARGE DOSE OF SALT! That is pretty much recognized around here. You will never get anything but spin from either side. As much as I loathe to say it, social media right now is probably the only REAL news source in this whole situation and I even question it highly.

2) Putin is not an idiot. He has plans within plans. The western powers have shown weakness and devisiveness both internally and externally for decades. To him, this was the chance of a lifetime. In taking that chance he has painted himself in a corner. He is facing an insurgency that hasn't been seen in Europe since WWII and he knows it. He also realizes if he is defeated or humiliated, he loses face ergo power at home and can quite possibly wind up hanging around a garage in Moscow like Mussolini did in Milan in '45. This is what makes the situation highly dangerous.

3) If Putin goes all the way and orders nukes used, chances are they will be short ranged theatre weapons and not full scale ICBM's. He will do so in Ukraine first both to show the world just how far he will go to accomplish his goals and to take the fight out of Ukraine as we did the Japanese back in '45. Problem is that nukes are "highly problematic" for reasons all of us know. In addition, there will be some response which could quite easily turn Moscow into the 21st century version of Chernobyl. Putin already has an escape plan, count on it. The average Ivan doesn't. I don't know if the Russian people remember just HOW big a price they paid in WWII.

4) The involvement of NATO Forces in combat with Russian forces at this point is inevitable. It will most likely happen when Russian troops attempt to go into Poland or the Czech Republic after resistance fighters. This means ALL NATO members will either have to step up or capitulate to Moscow. Such a capitulation at this point in SOME western allaince countries would be met with "very unhappy populations" and lead down an even darker path. Others will simply shrug and go back to hunting Pokemon.

5) The UN has ALWAYS been little more than a joke not unlike the League of Nations after WWI. Except for resolutions and such, I see nothing close to what it did in Korea back in the 50's...this will be NATO vs. Russians and their allies all the way...that will include China, North Korea, and Iran. The fact that China hasn't gone into Taiwan yet is merely because they are waiting to see how the west will react. If they capitulate to Putin, Taiwan is doomed...and possibly so is Japan. I would pity them going into South Korea.

6) This has a great potential for WWIII. To think otherwise is not smart or prudent. History always repeats itself and this tired old story...with different actors, players, and times is no different. That is the sad part about this whole scenario...everyone loses. One of the reasons I brought up a lot of history in my entry here. I would hope calmer head prevail.

Excellent points all...thanks for contributing to this civilized and well-informed discussion.

Anybody with even the slightest understanding of history should be very concerned about where all this goes from here...almost any outcome is possible, and few of those possible outcomes are pleasant.

 

[LVSteve]

UPS or FedEx?

I hope they remember they have to go to a local hub. The local store won't have enough peanut packing for 2000 FN GPMGs.

 

[Onomea]

An interesting analysis of China's dilemma, I thought, quoted in an NYT column by Thomas L. Friedman this morning:

....This war with no historical parallel won't be a stress test just for America and its European allies. It'll also be one for China. Putin has basically thrown down the gauntlet to Beijing: "Are you going to stand with those who want to overturn the American-led order or join the U.S. sheriff's posse?"

That should not be — but is — a wrenching question for Beijing. "The interests of China and Russia today are not identical," Nader Mousavizadeh, founder and C.E.O. of the global consulting firm Macro Advisory Partners, told me. "China wants to compete with America in the Super Bowl of economics, innovation and technology — and thinks it can win. Putin is ready to burn down the stadium and kill everyone in it to satisfy his grievances."

The dilemma for the Chinese, added Mousavizadeh, "is that their preference for the kind of order, stability and globalization that has enabled their economic miracle is in stark tension with their resurgent authoritarianism at home and their ambition to supplant America — either by China's strength or America's weakness — as the world's dominant superpower and rules setter."

We Have Never Been Here Before
Opinion | Putin Has Made Sure the World Will Never Be the Same - The New York Times

 

[biku324]

There is only a small window of opportunity for bad guys to do their stuff.
There are a lot of Russian people upset over this war. You would think that people would tire of the state of constant war.
People who plot to deprive others of rights and property shouldn't be tolerated. Most of them have not contributed anything to humanity. Only thing that will keep China from taking Taiwan is it will cost them more than they gain. The American consumer is biggest weapon we have against China.

No one but us will say a word if China does take Taiwan back. It was our invention to save Chiang Kai-Shek and the Nationalists from being squished by the Maoist Revolution. The Chinese are patient, but will ultimately prevail in this matter - they prefer low-cost, like Hong Kong, Macao, and Shanghai because they learned something valuable on capitalism from each by not stomping on them.

The following 15 nations recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country: Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Paraguay, Nicaragua, Eswatini, Tuvalu, Nauru, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Marshall Isalnds, Palau, and the Vatican City (U.N. non-member). The United States maintained Taiwan's recognition for 30 years after the Chinese civil war but switched in 1979. Despite this, the U.S. has maintained a positive relationship with Taiwan, including offering the island military assistance, a move that has caused tension between the U.S. and China. In 2019, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands both switched their recognition from Taiwan to China within a week. After losing two more countries, only 14 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan, plus the Holy See.

 

[Rustyt1953]

Please forgive the drift.

Arlo, I actually got to read the linked (well written) article you posted. In the past I always hit the NYT pay wall and opt not to pay.

I clicked on the link expecting the same and found this: "You have access to this article thanks to someone you know."

A nice surprise.

 

[Onomea]

Please forgive the drift.

Arlo, I actually got to read the linked (well written) article you posted. In the past I always hit the NYT pay wall and opt not to pay.

I clicked on the link expecting the same and found this: "You have access to this article thanks to someone you know."

A nice surprise.

True enough, right?!