Long-term consequences...
Mods, thanks for re-opening our discussion...much appreciated.
Friends, listening to the news today, I'm thinking about the long-term and far-reaching consequences of Putin's invasion of Ukraine...
* Whether Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine or not, both Putin and his country are about to become pariahs on the world stage, the skunk at the wedding, so to speak. Nothing Putin says about anything will be deemed credible or trustworthy. No written agreement, no treaty, with Russia will mean anything. For a long, long time to come, the world will view Russia with extreme askance.
* The economic, social, and cultural consequences for Russia, its leaders, and its people, will be severe. I expect Russians will be barred from international sporting events, and that major matches and events will not be held in that country. The Russian Grand Prix race has already been cancelled, as has the Champions League soccer final. Cooperation between Russia and other nations on scientific endeavors or explorations, such as the International Space Station, will be impaired or halted. Russia will be shut out of international financial markets and operations. (I read this morning that even one major porn site has barred Russians from accessing it!) I expect Putin himself, to be persona non grata in many other countries, despite his rank as a head of state.
*The domestic consequences of this war for Putin could be severe. Although he controls the media, he cannot control the anger of his people when their conscripted sons come home from Ukraine in body bags. There have been vocal demonstrations already in Moscow, and with most of his army engaged in this war right now, Putin is possibly vulnerable to a coup d'etat or even a revolution.
* If Putin conquers Ukraine, it will remove that country as a buffer between Russia and NATO members Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. Basically, a new Iron Curtain will be established, forcing NATO to arm itself and sleep with one eye open at all times. We'll be back to life in the Cold War era.
* The USA is already sending troops, weapons, and aircraft to Europe. I expect that we, and the other NATO member nations, will be forced to re-open those bases we closed 30 years ago, or establish new ones, to guard against Russia. Europeans too young to remember the Cold War (basically anyone under 35) are going to get a cold dose of reality, and a lesson in how vulnerable they are.
* This whole outrageous episode will revitalize the anti-nuke movement around the world. Putin's not-so-veiled threat to use nuclear weapons against those who resist him is truly chilling, a real wake-up call of the dangers of nuclear proliferation.
* Around the world, government officials and others who've praised Putin, or downplayed his intentions, excused his thuggery, or allowed themselves to be used by him (his Belorussian stooge Lukashenko comes to mind) are going to have to find a way to distance themselves from him, lest they join him as outcasts on the world stage.
* The basic concept of the United Nations is being tested here, and we don't yet know how that will play out. Putin is basically flipping the bird to the rest of the civilized world, and daring the UN to do something about him.
What's that ancient curse? "May you live in interesting times..."
