The Russians have gone in

[LCC]

Reporting that Ukranian civilians are being removed from their overrun towns and re-located to remote Russian towns. Putin's evil has no bottom.
NATO needs to create a wall of steel on all NATO countries bordering Russia and be ready with a hammer response to the slightest Russian incursion into any NATO territory.
Piece on the news about a commander of a 10 man hit and run squad and their success against tanks and armored vehicles with UNLAW's. Thousands of various shoulder mount rockets are in the pipeline to keep them supplied, and US is sending an initial 100 'Switchblades', the larger 60# drones have an armor piercing payload with a 25 mile range.
And there is reporting that the US is working with Slovakia to backfill with US weapons if they send their Russian made S-300 surface to air missiles into Ukraine.
Something resonates about the thought of a Russian pilot dropping dumb bombs on civilians suddenly incurring a Russian made rocket up his tailpipe.

 

[Kevin J.]

These generals know there is no return to mother Russia if this invasion doesn't work out. It maybe better to die trying on the battlefield than starving in a gulag.

 

[LVSteve]

If that estimate is even vaguely close to the truth, that's a lot of "missing in action" notices being sent to the soldiers' families, if they are not repatriating the bodies. I'd imagine the same was true for Germany after the battle of Stalingrad.

You think Putin's regime is updating the families of the Russian soldiers KIA, MIA or deserted? I very much doubt it.

 

[Absalom]

You think Putin's regime is updating the families of the Russian soldiers KIA, MIA or deserted? I very much doubt it.

Be that as it may, it would be premature to think that casualties will automatically lead to a significant reduction of public support for the war in Russia. Given the way the Russian public has been conditioned over the last couple decades, and how many Russians look at Ukrainians, the prevalent reaction is much more likely to be "Take off the kid gloves! Nuke the buggers!"

You probably remember biku's descriptions of how Ukrainians see the Russians. That works the other way round too. Just like with the Chechens before, Russians are easily persuaded to believe the worst. Back in 1999 Putin solidified his newly won power by having the FSB blow up a number of apartment buildings, killing 300 Russians and blaming it on Chechens, even though that made no sense at all. But it worked. Shortly after he started the 2nd Chechen War.

There is no reason to believe the majority's first response to body bags coming home is going to be to call for withdrawal and peace.

 

[UncleEd]

If Putin threatens or keeps
pushing that he could resort
to not only gas but nuclear
weaponry, his generals and
the inner circle of the Kremlin
must ask:

Is the total destruction of
Russia, even if the U.S. is
also totally destroyed, worth
the ego of one man?

 

[arjay]

There was great long piece on Reddit a few days ago written by a Russian emigre explaining the history,mindset and mythology of the Russian mindset. Very informative,but darned if I can find it to post a link here.

 

[oldbrownhat]

Some recent reports from The Guardian:

The Guardian's Moscow correspondents Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer wrote about why public support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine is still high, despite hopes from the West that it is waning:

There have been efforts from abroad to encourage the Russian people to protest against the war. Former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger last week released a nine-minute video in which he recalled his admiration for the Soviet weightlifter Yuri Vlasov and his father's shame at fighting for the Nazi army at Leningrad. "This is not the Russian people's war," he said in an appeal to ordinary Russians.

But others in Russia say it is. Many supporters cite the eight-year-old war between Ukraine and Russian proxy forces in Donbas, using words such as genocide and comparisons to the second world war to justify the invasion.

As one former diplomat wrote in a WhatsApp message, he looks forward to Russia holding a "Nuremberg 2.0" in Ukraine after the war. "Aren't you sad for the children killed in Donbas?" Elizaveta from Moscow shot back when asked about her views on the invasion. "Why don't you write about them instead?"...

..."We are seeing that society is divided by a majority that broadly supports the war and a minority that is against it," said Sergei Belanovsky, a sociologist. "These two groups live in different worlds, and cannot convince each other that their viewpoint is the right one."...
​

Mariupol City Council says residents are being taken to Russia

Residents of Mariupol, which is being continuously bombed by Russia, have been taken to Russia over the last week, the Mariupol city council is reporting.

The council said that "several thousand Mariupol residents were deported to Russia. The occupiers illegally removed people from the Left Bank district and shelters in the building of the sports club, where more than a thousand people (mostly women and children) were hiding from constant bombing," the statement reads.

The council said that the residents were taken to "filtration camps, where occupiers checked people's phones and documents". After, residents were "redirected to remote cities in Russia, the fate of other remain unknown".

Inna Sovsun on Twitter (@InnaSovsun)

#Mariupol city council informed that thousand of #Ukraine citizens from the captured parts of Mariupol have been forcibly interned to filtration camps, and then to remote villages in #russia.
The GULAG has been restored​

 

[LCC]

There is an encrypted messaging app called Telegraph that is being used by hackers around the globe who are sending 24/7 updates on the war to the millions of younger Russian citizens who use it. And the 5,000 Russian students in the US are no doubt sending real info back home via email.
The crippling sanctions that have been imposed haven't even really begun to bite yet, and already Russians are finding grocery store shelves empty, inflation climbing while the ruble plunges. And these are not the Russians of the old USSR, these are folks who drive BMW's, shop at IKEA, and until the war enjoyed open internet access.
The Russian economy is smaller than either California, Florida or Texas. Once the sanctions are in place and have taken hold, their economy is going to crater like the Great Depression x10.
Putin only remains in power due to the support of the GRU, formerly the KGB that he came from, and the billionaire plutocrats who keep everybody at the top paid off.
If and when those two groups decide enough is enough, Putin may well suddenly catch a case of the 'Russian Flu'. And that cannot come soon enough.

 

[oldbrownhat]

NY Times: Missile Strike Turns Ukrainian Barracks to Rubble, Killing Dozens (Sorry-don't know how to share/gift the link for open access)

Russian forces made significant gains in Ukraine on Saturday, advancing into the besieged port of Mariupol, destroying an underground weapons depot in the west and leaving a marine barracks in ruins following one of the deadliest rocket strikes on Ukraine's military in the nearly month-old war.

As the fighting raged, Ukraine faced a worsening humanitarian crisis, and military losses mounted on both sides. A senior Ukrainian military official said on Saturday that the strike on the barracks, which happened Friday in the southern city of Mykolaiv, had killed more than 40 marines.

At the city morgue, the bodies of dozens of marines in uniform were laid out side by side in a storage area. A morgue employee would not specify the number of dead brought from the site of the attack.

"Many," the employee said. "I won't say how many. But many."

Separately, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Saturday that it had used a hypersonic missile for the first time to destroy an underground ammunition depot in the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk. Ukraine's military spokesman confirmed the hit on Saturday, but said the missile type was "yet to be determined."

If confirmed, the Russian military's use of a new generation of its missiles, called Kinzhal or Dagger, would mark an escalation in the conflict. Hypersonic missiles are capable of flying at five times the speed of sound, according to military analysts....

-------

Street battles broke out in Mariupol, the southeast port city that the Russians have besieged since the conflict's early days, as Russian troops and allied irregular forces moved into the city after weeks of devastating missile barrages turned it into a wasteland of bombed-out buildings.

Residents who fled the city in recent days have described scenes of dead bodies dotting the streets, widespread looting and the suffering endured by thousands who remain trapped without heat or water....​

 

[bigwheelzip]

Know where any oligarchs are stashing stuff? There is a new program that offers rewards for that info called the Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Rewards Program.

Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Rewards Program | U.S. Department of the Treasury

Sent from my motorola one 5G using Tapatalk

 

[Rudi]

Very hard to tell exactly what is really happening. Much propaganda and miss information. We can not discuss certain very important parts of this equation here.

 

[vonn]

Cornered people are dangerous people

 

[tlawler]

Separately, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Saturday that it had used a hypersonic missile for the first time to destroy an underground ammunition depot in the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk. Ukraine's military spokesman confirmed the hit on Saturday, but said the missile type was "yet to be determined."

If confirmed, the Russian military's use of a new generation of its missiles, called Kinzhal or Dagger, would mark an escalation in the conflict. Hypersonic missiles are capable of flying at five times the speed of sound, according to military analysts....

I don't understand why a hypersonic weapon would be an escalation. It gets there a lot faster, but it's still just a delivery vehicle. It's the warhead that would be an escalation if they went chemical or biological. It seems that it would be a waste to use a hypersonic weapon at such (relatively) short distances.

Cornered people are dangerous people

And that's the Joker in the deck…

 

[lrrifleman]

This thread is extremely educational. A number of excellent points have been highlighted. A few points need to be amplified:
1) the Ukrainian tactics are not really different from the tactics used by colonists during the American Revolution, where commanders were targeted in order to weaken the resolve of the conscripts.
2) Putin appears to be pursuing the age old Russian quest for an unimpeded warm water port.
3) Russian conscripts are not trusted nor trained to think for themselves.
4) Russian Lieutenants perform the functions of most western countries' Sergeants.
5) Putin has been free to threaten unleashing nuclear weapons against any country that provides direct aid to the Ukraine, and has gone as far as threatening to target nuclear missiles on the American southwest. Has anyone been tracking Russia 's ballistic submarines? Personally, I haven't seen any Orions or Poseidens flying along the coast, much like during the Cold War when it was a known fact that Soviet subs would park off the coast of Cape May to intercept communications from the antenna farm on the south end of Wildwood, adjacent to the Coast Guard National Training Center in Cape May! (Point of information: most of official Washington's communications passed through the antenna farm! Second point of information: when Warminster NAS was shut down, navigational calibrations for the USAF Executive Fleet and USN antisubmarine warfare aircraft was transferred to NAFEC in Atlantic City.)

 

[oldbrownhat]

I don't understand why a hypersonic weapon would be an escalation....

Apparently they fly fast enough to avoid detection (by most systems, anyway) so there is little, if any warning of their approach until it's too late. Plus, a lot harder to shoot down (narrower time window) even if detected.

 

[LVSteve]

Apparently they fly fast enough to avoid detection (by most systems, anyway) so there is little, if any warning of their approach until it's too late. Plus, a lot harder to shoot down (narrower time window) even if detected.

It is without doubt a more capable weapon, but being conventional in nature (so far) I think that calling it "an escalation" is a stretch.

 

[ladder13]

…….A few points need to be amplified:
1) the Ukrainian tactics are not really different from the tactics used by colonists during the American Revolution, where commanders were targeted in order to weaken the resolve of the conscripts. …….

That's why Lt Dan told Forest, Forest Gump, not to salute him.

 

[Rudi]

It is without doubt a more capable weapon, but being conventional in nature (so far) I think that calling it "an escalation" is a stretch.

At what speed do standard ballistic missile warheads strike their targets?

 

[biku324]

Pay attention, folks. The Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile has a range of 1500 km, 932 miles, at 3800 mph. It was fired either from a MiG 31 (according to the Russians) or a guided missile cruiser in the Black Sea south of Odessa. There was zero tactical reason to hit a non-hardened land target with this weapon.

Hypersonic missiles were originally developed by the PRC as a 'carrier killer' weapon; the USS Harry S. Truman, CVN-75, group is currently in the Adriatic, off Split, Croatia (Shipyards List with Details and Live Maps | Marine Vessel Traffic), 731 miles from the Port of Odessa.

This was Putin's unsubtle message to us that he has missiles we can't counter that can accurately reach the Truman battle group. Fifth Fleet HQ at Manama, Bahrain is out of range from Odessa, but certainly in range from the 16 Russian Navy vessels off Syria or MiG-31 aircraft from Syrian bases. Do recall we 'gave' the Russians our Kobani airbase (363 miles / 585 kilometers / 316 nautical miles from Split) in Syria when we panic-abandoned it in November, 2019 - they had great fun putting social media posts of that online.

Wright and a contingent of civil engineers, security forces and intelligence personnel were deployed temporarily to expand the base to "support every type of airframe across the [Defense Department] spectrum," Wright said. They lived in tents and ate Meals Ready to Eat, known as MREs, for 45 days, he said.

The Kobani airstrip has been modified to support not only C-130s, which are able to land in most difficult environments, but also C-17s, which need a more hardened runway to support their weight, and other aircraft, Thomas said. US expands air base in northern Syria for use in battle for Raqqa | Stars and Stripes

 

[LVSteve]

At what speed do standard ballistic missile warheads strike their targets?

From memory, Mach 10-12 for ICBM warheads on reentry. Hypersonic cruise missile run about Mach 5.