The Russians have gone in

[swsig]

If Russian troops were scattering before the explosion, you have to wonder if they knew what was going on in advance. Sabotage maybe? During World War ll, the Japanese battleship Mutsu was anchored quietly in a Japanese harbor when it blew itself to bits. The cause of the explosion has been debated ever since, but a known disgruntled sailor in the crew may have done it.

It could have been sloppy ammo handling. The U.S. Navy's Port Chicago ammunition depot in California blew up during World War ll. Extremely lax safety procedures led to a fire onboard a cargo ship being loaded with ammunition. Although the sailors scrambled away as best they could, the explosion was so large that 320 died and 390 were injured, and the base was all but destroyed. At Port Chicago, speed was everything, and safety was nothing. Maybe the Russian soldiers felt the same pressure ("Let's dump this stuff and get out of here before HIMARS hits"), with inevitable consequences.

Or maybe it was HIMARS. Can it target through a smokescreen?

 

[biku324]

Smoke means nothing to a GPS-targeted munition.

A 'combat unloading' gone wrong could be also.

 

[bigwheelzip]

Just saw this stunning article in German news about "Refuseniks". These are large numbers of Russians that refuse to fight, and are being held and abused in prison camps in Russian occupied eastern Ukraine.


Russian contract soldiers increasingly jailed in occupied Donbas
Russian contract soldiers increasingly jailed in occupied Donbas | Europe | News and current affairs from around the continent | DW | 04.08.2022

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[LVSteve]

If this is true, the Russians look more like the Keystone Cops, rather than a crack army.
Putin humiliated as Russia blows up OWN supply train - soldiers 'panicked and scattered' | World | News | Express.co.uk

I dunno about a crack army, more like an army on crack.

 

[venomballistics]

gleaned this from the online news / battle map

Russian militaries shelled the Zaporizhzhia NPP for the second time in the last few hours: three hits were recorded on the site of the station. The nitrogen-oxygen station and the combined auxiliary building were damaged

 

[biku324]

Bad news for Putin....

WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The Biden administration's next security assistance package for Ukraine is expected to be $1 billion, one of the largest so far, and include munitions for long-range weapons and armored medical transport vehicles, three sources briefed on the matter told Reuters on Friday.

The package is expected to be announced as early as Monday and would add to about $8.8 billion in aid the United States has given Ukraine since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24.

Exclusive: U.S. readies new $1 billion Ukraine weapons package | Reuters

 

[venomballistics]

They are still taking pot shots at and around the nuke plant

 

[Rudi]

Looks like Russia is letting Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea. Puti must have figured out that causing starvation in parts of the world would really look bad.

 

[biku324]

Bet these Russian generals are relieved to be relieved (instead of dead).

The poor performance of Russia's armed forces during its invasion of Ukraine appears to have led to a shakeup in command, the British Defense Ministry said Sunday.

Gen. Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, who had been charged with overall command of the operation in Ukraine, was removed from his post last week, the ministry said. General-Colonel Aleksandr Zhuravlev, who had commanded Russia's Western Military District since 2018, was absent from Russia's Navy Day in St Petersburg a week ago and has likely been replaced, the ministry said in its assessment of the war.

Another general was relieved of command of Southern Grouping Forces, the ministry said.

"These dismissals are compounded by at least 10 Russian Generals killed on the battlefield in Ukraine," the assessment said. "The cumulative effect on consistency of command is likely contributing to Russian tactical and operational difficulties."

Ukraine live updates: 3 Russian generals sacked as military struggles

 

[venomballistics]

I'll park this link here.
It's a battle map sort of thing I've been tracking this with.
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Key things I've been watching are the battle lines. Things have been quite stagnant in terms of turf changing hands. certainly not for lack of action.
Leadership changes seem to be reflected in a recent uptick in reports

 

[bigwheelzip]

Looks like it's "Wild Weasel" time.

There's been a bunch of posts online today, about fragments of US made HARM missiles at the wreckage of Russians radars in Ukraine.

A US DoD official confirms our anti-radar weapons are in theatre.

"Anti-Radiation Missiles Sent To Ukraine, U.S. Confirms | The Drive" Anti-Radiation Missiles Sent To Ukraine, U.S. Confirms | The Drive


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[biku324]

I love it!

Loud blasts have been reported at a military base in Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula Russia annexed in 2014.

The blasts were in the western village of Novofedorivka, said Oleg Kruchkov, an adviser to the Moscow-installed regional head.

Three local witnesses told Reuters they had seen black smoke rising from the direction of the airstrip.

The cause of the blasts was not immediately known, but Russia's defence ministry said ammunition was detonated.

Footage has emerged on social media purportedly showing people on a beach watching plumes of smoke rising from the direction of Novofedorivka.

Russia-appointed Crimea head Sergei Aksyonov said he was going to the area.

Ukraine war: Explosions hit airstrip in Russia-annexed Crimea - BBC News

 

[venomballistics]

"ammunition was detonated" ... Ya think

 

[ddixie884]

You know, the free world doesn't have to stop Russia in Ukraine. They can let him liberate at least a coupla more countries like Poland and Lithuania. Heck, they can wait til they're at the English Channel. It worked so well with Hitler. At least the Ukrainians are furnishing the man power and all they are asking for is weapons. Sorry I am in a contemplative mood and I have seen a coupla folks on the tube and the net with isolationist views lately. My apologies for my morbid thoughts...........

 

[venomballistics]

You know, the free world doesn't have to stop Russia in Ukraine. They can let him liberate at least a coupla more countries like Poland and Lithuania. Heck, they can wait til they're at the English Channel. It worked so well with Hitler. At least the Ukrainians are furnishing the man power and all they are asking for is weapons. Sorry I am in a contemplative mood and I have seen a coupla folks on the tube and the net with isolationist views lately. My apologies for my morbid thoughts...........

I do my fair share of contemplating on this as well.
In terms of battlefield progress, I'm not really sure what we are looking at.
What Ukraine has regained may have been Russia's concession.
The front has been very stagnant despite the raw tonnage of explosives rained liberally upon it and weapon systems pumped into it. This draws my suspicion.
Any system sent to be used, may also be disassembled and analyzed. we need to be careful here.
These things aside, we have been basically fighting non stop for twenty years. After ten, an argument could be made for us being battle hardened. But twenty ... we're battle weary.
Domestically, while the vast majority of issues cannot be discussed, the bottom line reads "Things are not okay at home"
While we take pride in making safe the lands of our fellow travelers of the cosmos, We really can't do this right now.

 

[bigwheelzip]

BWZ, any updates on that German self propelled howitzer?

Still keeping alert for stories showing PzH2000, but they are like hens teeth.


"German-Built Howitzers Pound Russian Targets In Ukraine" German-Built Howitzers Pound Russian Targets In Ukraine

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[biku324]

Glad the French didn't feel that way during our fight for freedom and self-determination.

 

[LVSteve]

The front has been very stagnant despite the raw tonnage of explosives rained liberally upon it and weapon systems pumped into it. This draws my suspicion.

Maybe it's static because of the stuff falling from the sky.

I think it is easy to have a skewed view of ground combat after the two Gulf Wars that featured so much maneuver warfare. The terrain in Ukraine is different, being criss-crossed by multiple small rivers creating choke points everywhere. Add in the the comparative absence of air support due to the effectiveness, perceived or real, of the SAM threat, and it is a style of war we haven't seen since Korea or WWII. Recall how the campaign in Normandy got bogged down because of the waterways and when air support was impossible on cloudy days. The Battle of the Bulge was only really settled when the air support could operate.

I would also add that we must remember that Ukraine never had a large army. While it is able to maul the Russians at a distance with the right weapons or in guerilla style warfare, large scale advances to take back territory are a different kettle of fish.

 

[biku324]

This is worth a read - MSN

Bluntly speaking, Putin's war is economic suicide. The late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) once slurred Russia as being merely a "gasoline station masquerading as a country," but it's worse than that now. Putin has driven away all the gas station's customers and employees and will be completely out of business sooner than he imagines.

 

[venomballistics]

Maybe it's static because of the stuff falling from the sky.

I think it is easy to have a skewed view of ground combat after the two Gulf Wars that featured so much maneuver warfare. The terrain in Ukraine is different, being criss-crossed by multiple small rivers creating choke points everywhere. Add in the the comparative absence of air support due to the effectiveness, perceived or real, of the SAM threat, and it is a style of war we haven't seen since Korea or WWII. Recall how the campaign in Normandy got bogged down because of the waterways and when air support was impossible on cloudy days. The Battle of the Bulge was only really settled when the air support could operate.

I would also add that we must remember that Ukraine never had a large army. While it is able to maul the Russians at a distance with the right weapons or in guerilla style warfare, large scale advances to take back territory are a different kettle of fish.

It wasn't really a thing in WW2 or Korea either ... aside from some real estate in the northern front, it's looking more like the stalemate of WW1's trenches. We should see some shift, gain or loss, to the next obstacle at least until winter when the ice and snow command that none shall pass.