When does rarity hurt, rather than help, value?

[Slufstuff]

First off, this topic could go in any of the S&W firearm categories. I am placing it here because my example fits this category.

So I am interested in other opinions on when does rarity hurt your S&W revolver value rather than helping? What I am getting at is what number of examples in the wild generate enough visibility and demand with collectors to influence the price beyond just condition considerations?

An example is one I own, a Vietnam war US marked Model 10 revolver. Based on the very small number I see mentioned in internet searches, I do not believe there are more than a handful in private hands. With the interest in military issued S&W's, this should be a well known and pursued model variation, but that does not appear to be the case. If these are mentioned at all in references, it usually is along the lines of "The US bought some number of model 10 revolvers during the war, some of which bear US markings."

By comparison, USAF marked model 15 revolvers from the same period bring huge premiums. Yet there are almost certainly far more model 15 USAF revolvers in collectors' hands, than comparable US marked model 10's. So it begs the question, if there were more US model 10's in the wild, would the models visibility among collectors be raised and prices rise, despite the theoretical higher supply?

I see this conundrum in other S&W firearms, I am only using the model 10 as an example. So how many legit US marked Model 10's in private hands would it take to establish a high demand and better visibility in the collector community? 50? 100? 300? More? Less? I would like to see the boards opinions, look at it as a broad question, not just for the example I raised.

 

[NewLiberty]

Market value is found at the intersection of supply and demand.

With your examples, it is possible that the US Marked examples just are not well known, so there aren't a lot of people out there looking for them. There are effective ways to increase the knowledge of a particular firearm that is as rare as hens teeth, but they are generally expensive to do. Those are the cases where a quality auction house with a large following, like RIA, can be well worth their commission to engage.

The other issue that can effect value of a really rare item, is that it is hard to find comparable recent sales to compare a given value to. When is the last time one sold at auction, or at a public forum where the value at that time can be found?

And then there are intangibles, like if the stories that go with a particular firearm, and the provenance that supports it. Were the US marked model 10s issued? If so, who were they issued to?

 

[Ameshawki]

US marked Model 10s are an area that really needs to be researched. The military bought tens of thousands during the Viet Nam war but they are virtually unknown on the civilian market. I collect 10s and have never seen one, I've never even heard of one in civilian hands. I don't know if they're still in storage, met Capt Crunch during the Clinton Administration, or stayed in Viet Nam.

 

[Slufstuff]

US marked Model 10s are an area that really needs to be researched. The military bought tens of thousands during the Viet Nam war but they are virtually unknown on the civilian market. I collect 10s and have never seen one, I've never even heard of one in civilian hands. I don't know if they're still in storage, met Capt Crunch during the Clinton Administration, or stayed in Viet Nam.

I agree. They are not well known at all, even in the S&W collector community. I fear many/most went to Capt. Crunch, but who really knows?

 

[Model19man]

I think market value is unrelated to supply but very much related to demand. Generally (there are exceptions) if no one wanted one when they were new no one wants one now. Even the ones that were common 100 years ago may be hard to find in excellent condition now.

 

[Bald1]

This is an interesting topic. Sellers on gun broker apparently understand this conundrum (Craigslist and EBay too for that matter). Sellers list things then go on and on about what makes it special, rare and collectible. As if they’d convince someone to pay for something they never knew existed 10 minutes earlier. I have a similar situation with a 6” Colt Trooper MKIII. It is mint and is a transition model with a ventilated rib MKV barrel. Colt acknowledges they are low production and will bring a premium but only diehard Colt guys know about them.

 

[PeteC]

Rarity hurts value when nobody knows about it.

Example:

Model 19-P. Only about 2000 made, and most were exported to Peru or to Europe.
Now that some are coming back, but hardly anyone knows what they are.

So yes, demand is what creates value, not scarcity.

 

[gmborkovic]

The Colt Trooper MkIII is a nice gun, but just does not feel like a S&W N frame m-27 or 28.

 

[lestert357]

I have heard it stated like this, although you can insert whatever model you care to…..”the only thing more rare than a Vietnam War era U. S. marked Model 10 revolver is a Vietnam War era U. S. marked Model 10 revolver collector.”

Although perhaps not quite as unknown as your example, I can relate this situation to the postwar .357 Magnum Transitional revolver. I turned my collecting attention to S&W revolvers in 2014, and specifically to Registered and Non-Registered Magnums. I studied and watched them day in and day out for 3 years, and then one day in 2017 a thread appeared on this forum discussing a postwar .357 Magnum Transitional that sold for over $30K at auction! I was totally dumbfounded and had no idea of what the gun was. My immediate reaction was how could a postwar .357 Magnum possibly sell for 2-3 times what a comparable Registered Magnum sells for. But it was true, and you can be sure that I subsequently got myself educated about early postwar .357 Magnum Transitional revolvers. In fact since then I have written 2 S&WCA Journal articles on them (to be published in the 2023 Summer and Fall issues) and also now curate the S&WCA database for them. My hope is that the articles will help educate many other members regarding the rarity and potential value of these special guns.

Slufstuff, I for one would love to read details about and see pictures of your Vietnam era U. S. marked Model 10. Perhaps you could help many of us understand just how rare and special (and potentially valuable) they are.

 

[Retired W4]

In general, I think any gun that has no comparable gun to put up against it could hit the stratosphere, where as one with comps is easier to value, all else being equal. Does that make sense?

Regarding the example, any comps make it easier to value. Extreme rarity can call for an extreme price. Waterlilies by Monet comes to mind. There are hundreds of them, but how often do they come on the market?

 

[Bald1]

The Colt Trooper MkIII is a nice gun, but just does not feel like a S&W N frame m-27 or 28.

It’s my only Colt. I stumbled into it 2 yrs ago. It’s one of the prettiest guns I own. I put a cylinder of .38s through it and it’s been in the safe ever since.

 

[Slufstuff]

Slufstuff, I for one would love to read details about and see pictures of your Vietnam era U. S. marked Model 10. Perhaps you could help many of us understand just how rare and special (and potentially valuable) they are.

Terry, here is a link to a thread I started on my US model 10 last year, including pictures. HTH

Vietnam war US Model 10-5 round butt revolver

 

[pawncop]

When I consider value of unusual and/or rare firearms I have come to the conclusion that it is not my interest that is important, rather, it is the interest of the group wanting what I have.

Case in point, I have a Colt Official Police, with markings indicating it was one of the first groups acquired by the British Purchasing Commission, in 1940, in 38-200, with markings verifying it was sent to the Woolwich Arsenal and then sent to Australia, state of Victoria. It is in very good condition, still has the lanyard ring. I bought it because it was just too cool.

Now I have decided to let it go, I don’t shoot it very much, 38 S&W is not easy come by, it’s not a very effective round and I would like for someone that will appreciate it better than I to have.

I have yet to find that person.

Perhaps I will at some point. Until then I will cherish this old warhorse and wish it it could tell me of its adventures.

 

[lestert357]

Terry, here is a link to a thread I started on my US model 10 last year, including pictures. HTH

Vietnam war US Model 10-5 round butt revolver

Thanks for that heads up; I obviously missed that great 5 star thread! I think you should consider submitting a Journal article.

 

[THE PILGRIM]

Sounds like Letter Time to me.

 

[MajorD]

While it doesn’t explain the difference between demand for USAF 15’s and US marked 10’s, I do think the plain Jane appearance of these guns does have something to do with it
Regarding how common, I guess one would have to see if any U.S. marked contract overruns were ever released on the civilian or law enforcement market.
Also, the aid to police agencies program the government runs ( has a more official name just can’t recall right now) probably released tons of model 10’s and other revolvers to police agencies. The agreement was supposed to be once the agency was done using it it was to be returned to the feds.

However as is often the case, some agency with 300 officers and 300 model 10’s, a few of which were US marked, traded for new autoloaders and a big bin of model 10’s goes to a wholesaler or gun shop, the us marked guns piled in with the others, with the long forgotten agreement a thing of history.
Other than while in service I have never seen a military marked 10 or 15 in person

 

[chief38]

I would guess rarity would hurt a gun's value when parts and Gunsmiths aren't available to fix it when it goes down. I would also think that if it is really super rare, buyers might be super scarce when selling it.

 

[DWalt]

When I consider value of unusual and/or rare firearms I have come to the conclusion that it is not my interest that is important, rather, it is the interest of the group wanting what I have.

Case in point, I have a Colt Official Police, with markings indicating it was one of the first groups acquired by the British Purchasing Commission, in 1940, in 38-200, with markings verifying it was sent to the Woolwich Arsenal and then sent to Australia, state of Victoria. It is in very good condition, still has the lanyard ring. I bought it because it was just too cool.

Now I have decided to let it go, I don’t shoot it very much, 38 S&W is not easy come by, it’s not a very effective round and I would like for someone that will appreciate it better than I to have.

I have yet to find that person.

Perhaps I will at some point. Until then I will cherish this old warhorse and wish it it could tell me of its adventures.

There was a little bit of discussion about the 38/200-stamped Colt OPs in this thread, #11 and #12. That is about all I know about them. http://smith-wessonforum.com/s-w-ha...an-police.html?highlight=Colt+Official+Police

 

[vistafjord]

Demand is what drives price. Some guns were made in small numbers but there is no demand. Some guns (WW2 1911A1s) were made in huge numbers but attain high prices due to high demand.

The gov't bought 10s of thousands of Model 10s and Model 15s but very few are on the open market and those that are available to collectors came via police trade-ins and being 'purloined' by GIs returning home. Since these guns are post-WW2, they tend to be less in demand (and achieve lower prices relative to their rarity) than WW2 pistols which were surplused in huge numbers.

For what it's worth, I have been looking to buy a "US" marked Model 10 for the past 4 years or so and have only seen 4 pop up (3 of them on this forum but the owners don't want to sell). One other on an auction but it was in poor shape and another from a German WW2 dealer which was also in rough shape but was sold before i found out about it. I've seen an equal number of Model 15s with "USAF" on the frame, mostly at auctions (one of which i bought). I personally think the Model 15s are easier to find than the Model 10s, although they don't show up often. It's surprising to me that there aren't more Model 10s available for sale, as i would have thought that more would have made their way home in duffel bags. The best story about Model 10s is from the Forum member who found one at Cabela's and bought for $300 or so -- lucky dog!!!

 

[ACE10000D]

IMHO, at the end of the day, it's a model 10. I believe Smith produced about 20 million of them, so there is no lack of them at any LGS, regardless of some stamp. I know different things float people's boats differently, but no collectors in my area care about model 10's, just too many of them out there. I recently picked up what I consider a rare model 10 (nickel 3"), and hardly anybody would give it a second look because it was a Model 10.