What types of SHTF scenarios are people basing plans on?

[Titan]

I'm not looking for ultra specific case scenarios, but what TYPE of SHTF scenarios are those of you who are preparing, planning for?

I'm tuning my plans now and there are always important issues to resolve...

1) Housebound?
2) Mobile w capacity?
3) Lightweight mobile (on foot if necessary)?
etc.

I struggle with the issue a lot. Even if you plan to go mobile...for what scenario?

A day or two? Weeks? Months?

What distance? Obviously this is effected by the scenario. There isn't far you can go fast enough with nuclear or biological, depending on warnings you may or may not get.

If homebound, against what scenario? Nuclear/Chemical/Biological? Natural disaster? Governmental failure? etc.

Beyond stocking up and arming, are you thinking about defenses against outsiders? neighbors?

Are any of you aligning with neighbors to compound your resources? Or, do you believe the best course is self-reliance?

I'd love to hear what people are thinking without asking for you to give away any secrets.

 

[sipowicz]

I've got my j-frame, a Vespa and a snicker's bar under the seat.

 

[Titan]

I've got my j-frame, a Vespa and a snicker's bar under the seat.

For ALL scenarios?

 

[Duke426]

I am prepared for something along the lines of the LA riots or New Orleans during Katrina.

A few days or a week at most. I plan on staying put at home.

The last few incidents have shown that the average american rioter doesn't have the stamina to last more than a few days worth of real hell raising and they don't often travel outside their own perimeter.

If a Red Dawn type scenario hits, I'll just try to take as many with me as possible, but I harbor no illusions of becoming a modern day Sgt York.

 

[Spotteddog]

I think Sip's got the thirty days after planets collide Armageddon in 2012 scenario covered?
I hate having to travel that heavy though.

 

[ect1222t]

Nuts!!!

I've got my j-frame, a Vespa and a snicker's bar under the seat.

That's good for you, but the Snicker's bar wouldn't do me any good as I have no teeth. It'd have to be a Milky Way or a Three Musketeer's.

 

[ect1222t]

Evil Dudes Roasting Over An Open Fire

You know, if you happen to have a rioter roasting on a spit over a roaring fire in your front yard, it would kind of be a discentive for the rioters to continue their evil ways in your neighborhood. After all, don't the dogs deserve a warm meal?

 

[Spotteddog]

That's why it's under the seat. The engine heat'll soften up the nougat. And the peanuts'll slide right down!
Sure better'n "C"'s?

(EDIT)
So, are you talking something like the "roast the hunter in clay" scene, from "The Naked Prey"?
Or a less sophisticated recipe?

 

[ect1222t]

Seriously

OK, enough levity. Unless it's a NBC situation or a forced evacuation, I plan on staying put. Anyone wants what I have first has to get through 3 very noisy dogs (B.A. & Viper {mixed breeds}, as their names suggest, can be a bit "aggresive", while Lucy the Pit Bull just barks until she's petted or has her tummy rubbed). So much for Pit Bull's bad rep. They will give me enough time to arm myself and eliminate any reasonable threat. If they do get me, (I hope not) it will be at a cost. -Ed.

 

[ect1222t]

That's why it's under the seat. The engine heat'll soften up the nougat. And the peanuts'll slide right down!
Sure better'n "C"'s?

(EDIT)
So, are you talking something like the "roast the hunter in clay" scene, from "The Naked Prey"?
Or a less sophisticated recipe?

Yeah, but the heat will melt the chocolate, too. Messy, messy, messy!

I think about the only things worse than C-rats, are
1) not having a P-38 (Tiny little G.I. can opener for those who don't know) or
2) downright starvation, and even that's debatable.
I hear that the new MRE's aren't too bad. I guess the kids nowdays have it better. Excuse me. Young men. Sorry. I'm an old fart. To me, anyone born after the Truman administration is a kid.

Never saw (or read) "The Naked Prey".

Just shoot a looter and wire him up to a length of pipe over a fire. Most of them are already all liquered up, so they're already marinated. If you can't use his clothes, etc. yourself, they'll make a good dog bed. Like I said, the dogs deserve a warm meal, too. (Besides, the dogs will get rid of the evidence )Maybe the rest of the looters will see their friend and figure "God, this guy's too crazy to mess with. Let's go somewhere else.". If they don't, well you can always build another fire.
(As this is a family friendly forum, I won't say what else a marinated, cooked, looter/rioter can be used for.) -Ed.

 

[BarbC]

I have had personal evacuation plans, which consists of important documents in one easy-grab folder, an overnight bag, and some cash.

When we lived in Chesapeake, VA, the risk was hurricanes. We prepared to stay and did. We boarded the windows, got plenty of water and gasoline. Put the extra vehicles in a storage unit so a tree wouldn't crush them. We had an existing stock of non-perishables. We were only without power for 18 hours and suffered no damage, just a huge mess.

Where we live now, we prepare to stay put. Our neighbors and us are close friends and like-minded. We already have our alliances and resources to defend this ridge.

 

[Titan]

I have had personal evacuation plans, which consists of important documents in one easy-grab folder, an overnight bag, and some cash.

When we lived in Chesapeake, VA, the risk was hurricanes. We prepared to stay and did. We boarded the windows, got plenty of water and gasoline. Put the extra vehicles in a storage unit so a tree wouldn't crush them. We had an existing stock of non-perishables. We were only without power for 18 hours and suffered no damage, just a huge mess.

Where we live now, we prepare to stay put. Our neighbors and us are close friends and like-minded. We already have our alliances and resources to defend this ridge.

Barb,

Thanks for the response. Part of my current efforts also include a document collection.

Do you backup your collection of docs on a computer and plan to carry them on a flash drive as a backup source? I thought that made great sense, in addition to hardcopies.
.

 

[BarbC]

Good idea. I do have a flash drive backup of my computer stuff but hadn't thought to take that along.

 

[Wheelgunner840]

While all scenarios would be impossible to cover here, or plan for, I am thinking that anything short of chemical nuclear or bacterial leaks / attacks, I will be staying put. I have been putting together an emergency pack that will suffice for a week or two if I had to get out "Right now", but I think that type scenario is most unlikely.

I have gotten a lot of great ideas from folks here including this very informative link.

http://www.bob-oracle.com/index.htm

It covers everything from basic to advanced. Lots of great info there.

So basically, plan "A" is to stay put. Working together with the neighbors is a huge plus.You.ve got all your stuff, food supplies and ammo right there in much greater quantities than you would be able to have on hand if you hit the road.

Plan "B" is to have as many supplies at the ready to hit the road in a vehicle at any given time. See the link for things you would / should need.

Plan "C" is the on foot scenario, and that is where a good comfortable suspension hiking pack will come in real handy. Things would have to be really bad for me to abandon everything else and start walking.

What kinds of scenarios would dictate A,B, or C response? I guess it would be a bit different for each person and their circumstances. How many people do you have to care for? Spouse, Kids, elderly? This would all play into the preperation and decision making.

If the situation required leaving your home, I think that it would be a good idea to have another place lined up (Family, friends, or a hunting camp, etc.) to travel to. In this case, like Barb said, it would be best to leave early and avoid the main highways. Having a separate location already stocked with supplies is also a great idea.

If you could not possibly travel by vehicle, having the bare essentials mentioned in the link in a carry bag of some sort would be necessary.

All three choices require guns and ammo, but dictate different types and amounts. I think that being prepared is necessary, but not to the degree of paranoia.

 

[Andy Griffith]

I've been looking for one of these on the army surplus lists...
But never can find one...

So, I guess I'll have to stick with my all terrain vehicle:

I've got two double barreled shotguns mounted in the back, and an ejector seat.

 

[The Big D]

My tin foil hat will protect me from all things. They told me so!

In all seriousness, I was involved in emergency preparedness and disaster management for a significant part of my career. Even some of the best laid plans are unworkable should the SHTF. So are some of the ill-founded plans...

For instance, in one major city in which I worked the "plan" was for police officers to man all traffic intersections on egress roadways from the city center in the event of a chem/bio incident. I mean all; and that would have required call backs of off-duty personnel. Yep, they would have been driving to the city when all traffic was flowing out...and using all lanes as per the plan. Impossible, in practice.

And, I know what you're thinking...as was I...what cop is going to answer his/her phone when they are home with family and a chem/bio (or worse) incident is unfolding?

Common sense is usually the best approach. My residence is in a location that absolutely cannot flood. No trees are close enough to fall upon it yet they can be harvested for fuel. It is far enough removed from numerous people that I could defend it from any reasonable/plausible attack. I have enough foodstuffs (and beer!) to last for a week or more without any problem whatsoever, and there are streams nearby for emergency water.

I have lights and batteries out the gazoo. Usually vehicle tanks are full and I know a source of hand pumped gasoline.

I fly often and always have both feet on the floor and shoes on for takeoff and landing. I count the seatbacks to exits forward and aft in the event the cabin should become smoke filled.

Having lived through Hurricane Camille when my friend and I were in a vehicle that was underwater (submerged!) and having survived whilst being in the track of a tornado, I am confident my survival skills are adequate except if the event is wholly non-survivable. Reckon should that be the case I didn't prepare properly.

As I have often posted, however, I will NOT live my life in fear or whilst constantly looking over my shoulder.

Be safe.

 

[handejector]

I keep a case of toilet paper in a rucksack. It is packed in a flame retardant, waterproof fabric.
I can trade that for anything.

 

[Careby]

It's impossible to cover all the permutations of all the ways things could go wrong. I try to keep it simple, and there is one specific event that will pretty much exhaust my "prepping" resources (mental and material). I imagine the electrical power grid in my area (100 mile radius) goes down for thirty days in the middle of winter. And I try to imagine as many likely repercussions of that as I can, and what I could do about them. Here are a few likely "side effects":

1. Utility water stops flowing.
2. Utility gas stops flowing.
3. Utility phone service is down.
4. Cellular phone service is down.
5. Gas stations are out of commission.
6. Banks are closed
7. Retail stores are closed.
7. McDonalds drive-thru is closed (!)
8. Unprepared people are cold, hungry, and desperate.

That's enough to keep me busy planning and preparing without worrying about aliens, terrorists, invaders, nuclear bombs, chemical/biological warfare, the New World Order, Wall Street, or the Federal Government. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

 

[roundgunner]

I have spent a lot of time and some funds with this dilemma. I’m best prepared to stay put. I have a lot of reinforced concrete around me and lots of gravel. I have studied the info presented on this and other blogs SurvivalBlog.com and have put in about 60 days of food for 8-10 people and I would hope to able to supplement it with fresh game and fish from the lake across the street.

I think I would try to network with some of my neighbors and friends. Another man down the road is prior SF with a handicap child who is like minded. Against many people’s advice I think I would be the guy to help others with squirrel & rabbit guns and small amounts of ammo, with the understanding we share game large and small. When that breaks down the circle of friends becomes smaller and smaller.

My property is set up like a fort but unless you know what to look for you can’t tell. I really think as long as we have someone on watch 24-7 it will be hard for bad guys (short of a organized assault force) to get a face to face visit. And yes I would let people come to use my well and any other charitable thing I could do to get others to want to help defend us.

If I had to bug out I do have a camper but I would think long and hard before I would give up a fort for a tin can with 1 tank of gas.

 

[Andy Griffith]

It's impossible to cover all the permutations of all the ways things could go wrong. I try to keep it simple, and there is one specific event that will pretty much exhaust my "prepping" resources (mental and material). I imagine the electrical power grid in my area (100 mile radius) goes down for thirty days in the middle of winter. And I try to imagine as many likely repercussions of that as I can, and what I could do about them. Here are a few likely "side effects":

1. Utility water stops flowing.
2. Utility gas stops flowing.
3. Utility phone service is down.
4. Cellular phone service is down.
5. Gas stations are out of commission.
6. Banks are closed
7. Retail stores are closed.
7. McDonalds drive-thru is closed (!)
8. Unprepared people are cold, hungry, and desperate.

That's enough to keep me busy planning and preparing without worrying about aliens, terrorists, invaders, nuclear bombs, chemical/biological warfare, the New World Order, Wall Street, or the Federal Government. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

If winter gets that bad, wouldn't it keep the folks that aren't prepared...indoors? If it was that bad a winter, wouldn't they be just as ill-prepared to deal with the feet of snow to get to your place?

In other words, the snow that caused the dilemma, is also your protection from the hoards of "aimlessly wandering" folks? I would hope so.

Of course, if it is that bad, likely we're talking about ice, instead of snow.