So you say it’s not a conspiracy

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germansheperd

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I find it interesting that it's not a conspiracy and it's new shooters and hoarders.
I also find it interesting that a company that can barely get a cartridge out to the civilian market can now supply the United States Army hmmmmm.
 

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When I went to the Marine Corps Security Force Battalion's School that trained all the sentries, Staff NCO's and Officer's, we did a lot of shooting and I mean a lot. A Captain and I did some rough figuring and we came up with approximately 1,000,000 rounds a month of .45 ACP. .38 Special, 9 MM, and 12 ga. Not sure if the schools were doing that much shooting year round, but while we were there they just ran class after class through.
 
Many things aren't available, yet the factories claim they're running as hard as they can. I've looked at rototillers and generators of late and the supply is thin at best. Something doesn't add up.
 
I just wish I had a conspiracy theory, or any theory.

Manufacturers claim they are making more than ever. BassPro/Cabelas/Academy are receiving less than ever. So where the heck is it going?

If you come to the Murdoch's Farm Store in my town at 7am on any Thursday, you'll see a line of people from the back of the store to the front waiting on the gun guys to put out that week's shipment of ammo. It actually never makes it to the shelf.

Then it's off to GB or a gunshow at twice the price, or more.

And people actually pay it.
 
Kulls on Line Auction will be held in May.
they are scheduled to be selling a bunch of ammo.

it will be interesting to see prices in a true auction setting and not a buy now price structure.
 
If you come to the Murdoch's Farm Store in my town at 7am on any Thursday, you'll see a line of people from the back of the store to the front waiting on the gun guys to put out that week's shipment of ammo. It actually never makes it to the shelf.

Then it's off to GB or a gunshow at twice the price, or more.

And people actually pay it.
Soon those Thursday early birds will be stuck with ammo they can barely get their money back out of. I scouted the closest local gun store yesterday. It's been months since they had more that a half dozen pistols. Yesterday they had 63 modern pistols and their ammo shelves were stuffed. It's only a matter of time before their loan will come due and that will break the high prices.
 
I don't think it's a conspiracy either, just higher than normal demand. Doesn't take much to overwhelm the system which is predicated on a constant, normal level of sales. No, the flippers don't help, but they do provide a source if you're willing to pay. I think I'll wait.
 
I don't think it's a conspiracy either, just higher than normal demand. Doesn't take much to overwhelm the system which is predicated on a constant, normal level of sales. No, the flippers don't help, but they do provide a source if you're willing to pay. I think I'll wait.

Probably the best thing to do is to wait it out. Once things return to "normal", then buy in small quantities and buy on a regular basis. Maybe every time you go some place that has ammo at a reasonable price, buy a couple of boxes. One box for shooting and one to stash.
 
This week I was in one of the local shops and they had a fair supply of 9mm at $28/50. He also has had plenty of 5.56 for a while. Another local dealer has been getting shipments of 3000 rounds of 9mm regularly. He's scalping at $47/50 but sells everything he can get about as fast as he gets it.

I just looked up some stats. As of 2019 there were 63,000 licensed dealers and as the end of 2020 there were about 400,000,000 guns. The new gun owners amount to about 7 million new guns. Multiply 7M times two boxes and you get 14M boxes. That adds up to 700,000,000 rounds if no one shoots the two boxes and just holds them.

Also figure the shelves are empty in virtually every store and they're trying to get inventory so all production is being sucked up as soon as it's manufactured. Throw in the police and military now and figure how many rounds they have to produce.

I don't know if covid restrictions have caused manufactures to reduce production due to social distancing and other regulations but I wouldn't be surprised.
 
Personally, I'd like to think that ammo supplies are getting better, but I have serious reservations. The local range that I've been dealing with is now selling range use ball in the $40 range. Other chamberings seem to be non-existent. Perhaps that is why I was able to get a barely fired Glock 42 rental for almost 65% of the Blue Label price.

Another range was selling 9mm ball for $36 a box (limit 6 boxes), 9mm Critical Defense for $32 a box, Federal 40 S&W for $44 a box (no limit) and 45 ACP at $47 a box (limit 1). I've not seen any revolver ammo.

Components seem to be getting more available. Primers are still about 10x the PRE-COVID prices. Powder seems to be about 3-4x PRE-COVID prices, bullets (when found) don't seem to have increased in price. If I were to load my cast bullets with newly purchased primers using existing supplies of powder, I'm looking at just under $16 a box, regardless of pistol cartridge. A bit more than pre-plandemic prices, but significantly less than the current prices!
 
I don't think it's a conspiracy either, just higher than normal demand. Doesn't take much to overwhelm the system which is predicated on a constant, normal level of sales. No, the flippers don't help, but they do provide a source if you're willing to pay. I think I'll wait.

How does higher demand explain Cabelas/BassPro/Academy receiving less?
 
Bauer had an ammo auction about a month ago or so. You can check out the prices ammo brought.

Kulls on Line Auction will be held in May.
they are scheduled to be selling a bunch of ammo.

it will be interesting to see prices in a true auction setting and not a buy now price structure.
 
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