coronavirus

I, or no one else knows exactly what we are facing. I do not think that comparing common flu deaths with what has happened so far is responsible. Many common flu deaths could have been prevented had people sought treatment soon enough. With this flu there are still a too many unknowns.
My daughter and I are in the age groups that are most adversely affected. We will do our best to take known precautions. I hurt and pray for the Doctors, Nurses and all who treat infected people. They are hero's.
 
I haven't seen any numbers on anybody 18 years old or younger. This is a designed virus that attacks those with a compromised immune system, diabetics, and those with high cholesterol.
 
arjay said:
The numbers are a conservative guess being pushed by a re-election campaign that's hoping for the best.we really don't know how many undiagnosed carriers are out and about spreading it. The average carrier feels fine for five days or more and infects quite a few people before feeling sick. That's where the main problem lies,the potential for overwhelming our healthcare system is very real. I think the naysayers on this forum need to start talking to people who actually work in healthcare to get an understanding of where this may go.
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I'm not downplaying anything. I'm not going by numbers from the US Gov.

My numbers come from Coronavirus Update (Live): 119,177 Cases and 4,295 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

These are the numbers:

Current worldwide Coronavirus Cases: 119,176

Deaths: 4,295
Recovered: 66,617

The above is out of the global population of 7.770 billion +.

Here are the current US numbers

Coronavirus Cases: 975

Deaths: 30

Recovered: 15

That's out of a population of 333.1+ Million.


Those numbers, are statistically, insignificant. These numbers are insignificant compared to the flu and the H1N1 Flu.

Here are the numbers for the H1N1 pandemic: 284,000 deaths world wide.

CDC estimate of global H1N1 pandemic deaths: 284,000
CDC estimate of global H1N1 pandemic deaths: 284,000 | CIDRAP
By: Robert Roos
| Jun 27, 2012
Jun 27, 2012 (CIDRAP News) – Working with admittedly sparse data, a research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases. ...
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The H1N1 was a decade ago and I don't remember the hysteria with that pandemic nor the 24/7 news coverage. That was with 59 million Americans who contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died. That's just the USA!

Compared to those numbers the let's put the Covid19 numbers in perspective.

To be fair, I do remember the Obama Administration declaring a National Emergency at some point.
 
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Ματθιας;140695824 said:
....
Compared to those numbers the let's put the Covid19 numbers in perspective.
....
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I am not disputing your numbers.

But as I pointed out in another thread, they are largely unhelpful at this time.

First of all, what's the point of comparing historical totals for an epidemic with the current numbers for one that has just started and is spreading rapidly? That's like the guy who fell from the 30th floor and, as he fell past the 20th floor, thought "well, so far, so good".

Second, looking at total fatality rates and even just hospitalizations misses the most important issue. The main problem as far as is becoming discernible is not the severity of symptoms or the lethality, but the rapid spread.

For the functioning of the country, the effectiveness of the healthcare system, and the fate of the economy, only one question matters:

How many people are going to be sick at the same time?

And that's where the rapid spread is new and scary.
 
Absalom said:
I am not disputing your numbers.

But as I pointed out in another thread, they are largely unhelpful at this time.

First of all, what's the point of comparing historical totals for an epidemic with the current numbers for one that has just started and is spreading rapidly? That's like the guy who fell from the 30th floor and, as he fell past the 20th floor, thought "well, so far, so good".

Second, looking at total fatality rates and even just hospitalizations misses the most important issue. The main problem as far as is becoming discernible is not the severity of symptoms or the lethality, but the rapid spread.

For the functioning of the country, the effectiveness of the healthcare system, and the fate of the economy, only one question matters:

How many people are going to be sick at the same time?

And that's where the rapid spread is new and scary.
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With H1N1 2009 pandemic, there were 265,000 people, in the US who, were hospitalized w/12,000 deaths. How many people were sick and hospitalized at the same time? That's a lot of people!!! Were was the hysteria then?

BTW: CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 29, 2020, there have been:

34,000,000 – 49,000,000 - that's million - flu illnesses,

350,000 – 620,000 flu hospitalizations

20,000 – 52,000 flu related deaths

That's just the US and look at the dates.

Looking at those numbers, is the flu a far greater threat even w/a vaccine or the Covid19?

2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC

It seems, to me, the flu is far more conatgeous and more lethal.
 
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Turn4811 said:
I haven't seen any numbers on anybody 18 years old or younger. This is a designed virus that attacks those with a compromised immune system, diabetics, and those with high cholesterol.
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In that case so is the flu or any other viral disease with increased deaths for people with comorbidities
 
The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed an estimated 600,000 people in the US, many of them in their 20s and 30s. It had a mortality rate of around 2-3 percent.The fact that this was pre-penicillin is irrelevant, because we're talking virus. Covid19 has a similar mortality rate (~3 percent) as Spanish flu, and has a mortality rate about 30 times higher than the seasonal flu (which is about 0.1 percent). If people want to compare COVID19 to the flu, compare it to the Spanish Flu. The latest conservative estimate of the number of deaths in the US over the next 7 months is about half a million (Dr. Michael Osterholm on Joe Rogan yesterday).

The next few months will see unprecedented change to our lives. This time will be in the history books.
 
American1776 said:
The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed an estimated 600,000 people in the US, many of them in their 20s and 30s. It had a mortality rate of around 2-3 percent.The fact that this was pre-penicillin is irrelevant, because we're talking virus. Covid19 has a similar mortality rate (~3 percent) as Spanish flu, and has a mortality rate about 30 times higher than the seasonal flu (which is about 0.1 percent). If people want to compare COVID19 to the flu, compare it to the Spanish Flu. .
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Not a good comparison, and you make the point yourself. Absent comorbidities, COVID 19 is running about .1% death rate. It's much higher if the patient does have additional underlying illnesses. (age related mostly). So not the Spanish Flu.

So, if you're old or sickly yep- take additional precautions.
 
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delcrossv said:
Not a good comparison, and you make the point yourself. Absent comorbidities, COVID 19 is running about .1% death rate. It's much higher if the patient does have additional underlying illnesses. (age related mostly). So not the Spanish Flu.

So, if you're old or sickly yep- take additional precautions.
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60 percent of the American population has a co-morbity, and the mean age today is much higher than it was in 1918.


To imply that the higher death rate of COVID 19 mostly applies to just the old and infirm, and therefore a minority of the American population, is inaccurate.

The conservative estimate for the number of US deaths over the next 3-7 months from COVID19 is 500,000. That's from Dr. Michael Osterholm, a top expert in infectious disease and it's spread.

Everyone needs to be taking extra precautions because a healthy person can transmit it to a family member who has cancer (like my wife) or an old sick person (both my parents). Moreover, the healthcare system here can indeed collapse, as it has in Italy. In Italy, they're having to send cancer patients home because they don't have enough resources.

In the next 10 days, the US will see if we'll be able to flatten the curve and prevent an Italian disaster, or if we'll go the way they did.
 
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American1776 said:
60 percent of the American population has a co-morbity, and the mean age today is much higher than it was in 1918.


To imply that the higher death rate of COVID 19 mostly applies to just the old and infirm, and therefore a minority of the American population, is inaccurate.

The conservative estimate for the number of US deaths over the next 3-7 months from COVID19 is 500,000. That's from Dr. Michael Osterholm, a top expert in infectious disease and it's spread.

Everyone needs to be taking extra precautions because a healthy person can transmit it to a family member who has cancer (like my wife) or an old sick person (both my parents). Moreover, the healthcare system here can indeed collapse, as it has in Italy. In Italy, they're having to send cancer patients home because they don't have enough resources.

In the next 10 days, the US will see if we'll be able to flatten the curve and prevent an Italian disaster, or if we'll go the way they did.
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He doesn't believe this is serious because it isn't affecting him personally (yet) My daughter self quarantined yesterday with all the symptoms (nyc)
I live in a household where everyone is high risk
Delcrossv is nothing but a troll and I've blocked him
 
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People are going to get the virus, and some will die. People are going to get the flu, and some will die. In time it will pass. But the collateral damage is what will last a long time.

Parts from China are not arriving. US companies are furloughing workers because they can't manufacture some products.

Industries like boats, RVs and such are taking a hit because 401Ks are diving and some people can't afford luxury items.

Anything travel related is taking a bad hit because people are afraid.

We're headed for a recession...or worse.

I'm not worried about getting sick....I'm worried about going bankrupt!
 
arjay said:
He doesn't believe this is serious because it isn't affecting him personally (yet) My daughter self quarantined yesterday with all the symptoms (nyc)
I live in a household where everyone is high risk
Delcrossv is nothing but a troll and I've blocked him
Click to expand...

Glad arjay did. Don't get caught up in the hysteria like he is. ;)
 
I live in Tacoma, WA. Last night was my last 'public gathering' evening for a while. People were crammed in at the bar at my local pub, as they always were - a fellow in his 80's right next to me, and two in their 70's next to him. Nothing has changed. I headed over to another bar for pool league and found the same thing - nothing has changed there either. I spoke with a few people about it and they all seem to feel this is overblown.

When I got home I caught hell from my live-in girlfriend. It's her house so things are changing starting today. I'm retired so this will be difficult, but I get it - she has two 80-ish sickly parents that she visits regularly.

As she put it - this is just a small 2-3 month sliver of your life. Showing extra caution for this small period should be no big deal.

I have an Airbnb in Seattle that is now empty. This means a loss of about $10,000 before Summer even gets here. But I get it.

The good news is that you don't see the normal coughing people in public any more, as social pressure is a huge deal here in the PacNW. As a result, I doubt we'll have much of a flu season and possibly some of the safe behavior will carry forward and we'll be healthier in the future.
 
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Regardless of whether this affects us individually the trickledown effect on the economy could be huge. Many large conventions, conferences, concerts etc. are being cancelled. This affects those people employed at all levels of the hospitality industry. Hotels, restaurants, transportation and such.

My son is operations manager at the Branson Convention Center in Branson, MO., talked to him yesterday and they had 1 cancellation and 3 more pending then.
 
Everyone on this forum shush up and
wait 6 months to 9 months.

Then come back and say "nyah, nyah,
nyah it was nothin'" or "tol' ya so and
now you're dead."

But one bit of advice: Better to error
on the side of super awareness/caution.
 
ladder13 said:
It's not ok to make fun while people are dying, we don't really know where this is going right now.

Thank your first responders, police, fire, EMS, and healthcare professionals who are in the mix.
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Amen ladder13. I'm as bad as the next person when it comes to trying to see the humor in most situations in life, but there is a line not to be crossed and this COVID-19 has drawn it, world wide. My old stomping grounds in Pelham, NY which sits between New Rochelle and Mt. Vernon is basically the epi-center in NYS for the virus. Any time a governor feels the pressure to call out the NG is a Big Deal. Our thoughts and prayers for all the victims today and thousands most certainly to come are called for; not jokes. Little story; I had my semi-annual bloodwork/PCM visit yesterday here in the N. VA/DC Metro area and was surprised when I asked my doctor what his office is doing to get a handle on the current situation and he said not much. This is because his medical group, INOVA, has so far not issued its medical staffs any concrete parameters/advice on procedures when treating patients. He told me he doesn't have any test kits yet and that if any of his patients suspect they may be infected they will have to be tested at the County health office because they're the only ones with the kits at this point. If that's the situation in Washington, DC what do you suspect it probably is everywhere else? He told me the give him a call if I think I'm infected; over 60, sore throat, sustained fever and problems breathing are the primary indicators and he'll call ahead to the county health office and get me tested. While I'm ok with that response, I can certainly appreciate those who'd have a far different one. He also asked if it was ok for him to put his stethoscope on my chest to check my breathing and I said sure why not? He said he's supposed to now get permission from patients before touching them in any way. My thought then is unless it's a medical emergency stay at home and self-isolate if you can until told it's ok to do otherwise. So back to your original comment about all the military, first responders, LEOs and anyone else who has a job they can't afford to stay at home from, pray that the good Lord will look after them especially.
Chuck
 
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Well, we haven't had any confirmed cases in town yet.

But just now I got a phone call from a local retirement community where I was supposed to visit this afternoon, telling me to stay away.

They've gone into lockdown, and are not allowing any outside visitors. I hope they're just being over-cautious.
 
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