Ex Cop, now cop killer on loose in L.A. Careful.

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Ok. Let's review...

He murders two people in an ambush attack as they sat in their car on Sunday. Yes, that was planned.

He's publicly identified as a suspect on Wednesday evening. A few hours later, he's trying to steal a boat. He tells the victim he's fleeing to Mexico. So much for his asymmetrical warfare campaign...his instinct is to run.

Not much coolheaded planning there...he can't get the boat free. He may have been in the Navy, but he doesn't sound like he's much of a sailor, does he?

So, he abandons that idea and drives north east. Maybe he was going to attack one of his targets, maybe not. Anyway, he is spotted an LAPD officers follow him. He attacks them...but this is in reaction to them following him, as opposed to a pre-planned attack.

Fleeing the scene of that shooting (note that he didn't stand his ground to shoot it out), he comes across unsuspecting Riverside PD officers and ambushes them, killing one. Again, not a pre-planned act like the murder on Sunday, but a target of opportunity.

Let me pause to offer my thoughts and prayers to Dorner's victims, and their families...

Back to my recap:

Now, on the run, he apparently drives to Big Bear. He abandons the car, which, according to news reports, has a broken axle. He burns the car, leaving behind weapons, according to news accounts. Why leave behind guns if you have a car stashed? Why try to steal a boat in San Diego if you have a car stashed in Big Bear?

Remember, this guy lived with his mom, apparently.

So, unless he has an accomplice, he winds up in Big Bear afoot...not because of a carefully constructed battle plan, but because of a series of impulsive acts.

He burns the car. Why? A diversion? To destroy evidence? Who knows? Remember that both oars aren't in the water here. We try to look for logic in the behavior of some one who is behaving in an irrational (and homicidal) fashion. My guess...another impulsive choice, that made sense to him at the time, but a bad choice, as it drew LE up there in force.

What now? Well, unless he's prepared to go camping, he's in real trouble, due to the weather. He needs food, water and shelter. This isn't a guy who went through SERE school. If his first plan was to hop a stolen boat to Mexico, he probably didn't pack his North Face gear. So, did he have time, after the failed boat theft attempt, to prepare to hole up in Big Bear? Did he run home to his mama's house and pack for a week in the mountains in February? Did he have the time to think about the weather? Or did he flee up there on impulse (like the boat theft attempt) and discover that he really wasn't up to the task.

Bottom line, he managed to plan and carry out the first attack. There was no external pressure on him at that point. However, the recent events do not seem to be part of a plan, but a hastily improvised escape attempt carried out under external pressure: fear of capture.

So much for his asymmetrical warfare campaign and on-line bravado. Unless he can find shelter or transportation, he is in real trouble out there. If he is still alive, that is. After all this excitement, he's likely to crash, emotionally. Maybe depression and hopelessness set in. That could lead to suicide. A lot of cop killers commit suicide within days of their offense. Even if not suicidal, unless he has shelter, the weather conditions are life threatening.

Is he dangerous? If still alive, and he sneaks up on you, yes. He is homicidal. But he is no commando, no super warrior. There is nothing in his background to suggest otherwise. He has been lethal when he has taken his victims by surprise.

Last thought: the allegations in the "manifesto" should be take with a huge grain of salt...it's all grandiose, self serving and it would be a mistake to assume his allegations are true.

He is (or was) driven by inner demons and serious mental illness. The "Cause" is NOT the cause, it's an excuse. An excuse for the inexcusable murder of innocents. Don't buy it.
 
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Good points, Lew, but you introduce another hinge point. Was the bid to take the boat real or Memorex?

The truck burning has also bothered me. Stuff that burns makes smoke and draws attention. Is that what you do when your vehicle unexpectedly lets you down and you are on the run? Only if you are looking to draw law enforcement in for an ambush, but there was no such attempt. Maybe the LEO response was too good for him in terms of caution, numbers and helicopter coverage. I have no clue and I doubt we will ever know for sure. All we can do on this forum is wave our arms about and hypothesize, in a civilised gorilla approved manner, of course.;)
 
LVSteve,

Thanks for your post.

As we sit back and speculate, we would all be well advised to periodically remind ourselves that Dorner's actions are irrational. It's tempting to theorize about his intent, but we do so with our own lens, which, hopefully, is rational. The human tendency is to make sense out of the senseless. But that tendency is misleading when analyzing irrational, senseless behavior.

The burning of the car could simply be emotion driven. Or the product of some improvised strategy. The key thing is that he left guns behind. That, to my speculation, suggests he is afoot and without assistance. I don't think he would abandon guns, symbols of power to him, unless he absolutely had to. But, there I go, applying rational analysis to his actions, so take it with a grain of salt.

Ever since the media outed him as a suspect in the Sunday double murder, he has been running away (caveat, I'm not sure why he was in Corona in the vicinity of one of his targets, just prior to the first shooting of police...maybe he was contemplating an attack there, on his terms...but, in any event, after the police shootings, he has stayed on the run).

In time, the answers to most of our questions will surface, if only we accept those answers. The answers are likely not going to be very satisfying, so there will be a tendency to reject the plain truth in favor of a more dramatic (and therefore satisfying) narrative.

As to your question about the boat theft attempt...my guess is that it was a genuine attempt to flee. Perhaps he lied to the victim about his destination, but it sounds like he was on the run. I doubt he would abandon that attempt deliberately, as a misdirection, because the reason the attempt failed was due to his incompetence. I don't think his narcissim would allow him to "fake" incompetence for any reason. Just my guess, and we know what those are worth. Anyway, whatever happened with the boat, and when it happened, should be easy enough for LE to confirm.

The hard part will be finding him up in Big Bear, particularly if he's died either by exposure or his own hand. And, if he's not found, the speculation will continue and the legend will grow.
 
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I'll try keep to this brief..... my 35 years in Law Enforcment tells me several things about this issue

1. The suspect is not dead.
2. The suspect is lying low as he is resting up for Round 2 of his plan.
3. Part of his plan is to pych law enforcment out, and he is doing a
very good job of doing that.....
4. We have not heard the last of him and this will not end well.....
5. I don't think he will ever be taken alive, as he would rather die then take
the Walk of Shame to Jail and in front of a Judge and the Court System.
5. This suspect has problems that we have not heard about yet.
6. The three (3) Murdered Victims of this suspect did nothing to the
suspect at all. They were innocent victims, all three (3) of them.
7. It does not matter what you think of the LAPD, these officers and their
families should not be a target by a mad man. We have a Justice System.
8. If he has a beef with the LAPD there are a number of agencies that he can
file a complaint with for them to investigate.
9. What interests me is that he was fired from LAPD in 2008 and yet this
starts in 2013.
10. Last date as a Navy Officer was Feb. 1, 2013 which I think set him
off. It is interesting that the Navy has tried to stay out of this mess
in spite of this and has not stated why he was let go from the Navy.
11. He gives the Navy a pass but blames the LAPD for everything that has
gone wrong for him.
12. One of his ex-girlfriends has basically said he had many problems and
she quit dating him because of it.
13. I think he has this well planned out and I don't think he is in the
mountains. We will hear from him again and it won't be to speak to anyone.
14. As we all know there are some bad apples in any large organization, I
don't think you should get a pass for shooting the people that you
don't like at work. It sure hasn't worked at other Business Place Violence incidents.
15. I am very disappointed that some people are making a "hero" out of
him. He is a mad man and a murder not a hero. It is a shame that
some people get so turned around on what is right or wrong.
16. Don't believe in everything you hear in the news media. They get it wrong often.
17. Having been in more than my share of "Officer Involved Shooting" Incidents while on duty, all I can say that unless you have "been
there, done that" to really understand what takes place during them and how you react to it, it is just an unknown on how you will really
react. I know that we have a number of people that pack a handgun and say what they would do it they had to use it, but until you
have "Seen the Elephant" it is all talk. Talk is cheap and anyone can do it.....reality is a great deal different than what is discussed
reguarly. I know this from first hand experience......I may not be an Expert but I have stayed at a Holiday Express before...........
18. I am not giving a "pass" to the LAPD and Torrance PD officers that shot at innocent people, they should be investigated and proper action
taken against them.
19. The Suspect said that he was only attacking the LAPD but ambushed two (2) Riverside PD officers sitting at a traffic light, they never had
a chance.... The Suspect is a Coward and a Bully.......
20. My oldest daughter (who I am very proud of) is a Southern California Police Officer (not LAPD or Torrance PD). She is doing her sworn
duty and has been looking for the suspect. I would ask for your prayers to keep her safe. She is an honest, excellent cop trying to do
the right thing and protecting her community.

OKay this was my personal 20 cents worth and know I guess it wasn't too short.......but it is something for you to think about....... Not
all Cops are the enemy... most cops are truly here to protect and seve their community.....
 
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MaximumLawman said:
We get it. You're full of righteous indignation. But there IS a thing included in the elements of many crimes called: "Intent". Are you really trying to compare the specific intent that this killer used with the negligence that the cops who shot up the truck may have been responsible for?
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There's also a thing called "recklessness".

If I decided I had second sight and wanted to prove it by driving down a busy street blindfolded, would I NOT be committing a crime if I ran over a dozen people, even though I had no specific intent to run over ANYBODY?
 
I take a different approach to this---I come from the same readings but come to different conclusions. Well, I have not come to ANY conclusions but some here seem to have done so.
Who is the mentally ill one here ?
He might have reaced a breaking point but does that brand him mentally ill.
What if all he says is true----WHAT IF?
Some want to take the thing to court right now----What if?
Why do I give this thing--what if---a chance. ?
LAPD comes with a history which may give some clue.
All BIG PD's have a history---they are not all the saints they would project. Does that make them all guilty ? I would say no---but that is really not what we are considering here.
I want to KNOW what is really going on here.
Possibilities do not favor this need though.
One thing for sure---A sleuth will not find this man---he is going to have to make a mistake.
Blessings
 
Williamlayton,

Ok, what if his allegations are true? Let's assume so...

And he does what?

Walks up to a car Sunday night and pumps rounds into two helpless people that have no connection to his termination from the LAPD which, by the way, happened years ago.

He murders the daughter of the lawyer that defended him, and her fiancé. That's his opening salvo. To "terminate" the family of someone he thinks wronged him? That's how he seeks to clear his name?

It's irrational and incongruous with his statements about his supposed desire for justice.

If that level of irrationality and violence doesn't suggest mental illness, nothing does.
 
Lew....good analysis. Lots of excellent points. Maybe he isn't superman afterall. But the stakes are high. Just one more hit and you and I and lots of others are back to the drawing board. But you made some excellent points.
 
Also, 2 developments yesterday last night that increase a very remote possibility that he surrenders. 1. the LAPD reopened his case including the accusations he made against them. And 2. Actor Charlie Sheen has issued a brief statement asking to talk to him.

And, I am reading that he is actually developing some kind of sick and twisted following of sick and twisted people who are now claiming he is some kind of hero taking on the system, racism, etc. I expect some cable stations to morph towards a more "Justifiable" rage position.

And this guy loves it.......if he's aware of it.
 
RABULL, appreciate your comments and I'm sure you are proud of your daughter as I would be. I am a Christian and have prayed for the law enforcement in Southern Cal. They need it in this very difficult and dangerous time. . Thanks.
 
There's also a thing called "recklessness".
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That's a long way from intent and may only rise to the level of a misdemeanor.

Walks up to a car Sunday night and pumps rounds into two helpless people that have no connection to his termination from the LAPD which, by the way, happened years ago.
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I didn't look at all of his personnel info that was supposedly made public but even if he was fired 3 years ago, the appeals process could be just wrapping up now....appeals, arbitration, appeals, etc. It's possible that the "finality" of his firing just recently occurred and the motivation for the attack on his former lawyer was "fresh".

And, I am reading that he is actually developing some kind of sick and twisted following of sick and twisted people who are now claiming he is some kind of hero taking on the system, racism, etc. I expect some cable stations to morph towards a more "Justifiable" rage position.
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That was inevitable. Similar to the support that various cop killers were getting in the late 60's and early 70's and similar to the support that people like McVeigh inevitably get from the fringe. I think the guy is still alive and intends to air more grievances and won't kill himself.

I wonder how long before he's labelled a "Domestic Terrorist". His actions fit the definitions quite well.
 
Pretty much everyone here, as well as all law enforcement, think he is on foot in the mountains. Their efforts have been concentrated there for what, 4 days now? I tend to believe that is exactly what he wanted everyone to believe, with great success. He could be on the east coast by now if he wanted. But I think he is likely holed up in SoCal. IF and I mean IF, he was planning this for a LONG time, which the length of, and many directions his "manifesto" went, indicates to me (he didn't sit down and just whip that all out at one time) he did...he could be very well prepared with hideouts all over. I definitely don't think we have heard the last of him. But what do I, or anyone really know.
 
Who knows how well planned he is.

I will add that if I were being pursued, I would leave things behind like gear or weapons. It makes for a distraction and can put those pursuing you in the mindset that you're scrambling, panicking, ill prepared etc. Anything that makes your pursuers second guess your motives is a plus for you. We aren't positive as to when the axel broke. Irrelevant in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if he was planning on burning the truck regardless.

Of course, he may have panicked long before he decided to head out to Big Bear, and everything he is doing is a panicked frenzy.

Just my musings.
 
USAF385 said:
Who knows how well planned he is.

I will add that if I were being pursued, I would leave things behind like gear or weapons. It makes for a distraction and can put those pursuing you in the mindset that you're scrambling, panicking, ill prepared etc. Anything that makes your pursuers second guess your motives is a plus for you. We aren't positive as to when the axel broke. Irrelevant in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if he was planning on burning the truck regardless.

Of course, he may have panicked long before he decided to head out to Big Bear, and everything he is doing is a panicked frenzy.

Just my musings.
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I guess my only disagreement would be the relevancy of the timing of the axle break. If that break was unplanned, obviously, unforeseen, then he's got to improvise and quickly. And it appears it was an unplanned circumstance.

So assuming it was, he still could be "out of the woods" sorta speak depending on how close to where he was headed. He had to know he wasn't going to get very much further in that truck anyways, so it may not be a big deal if he was close to where he was headed.

But as Clint Eastwood said in Breakheart Ridge (or whatever that great movie was).....he's clearly had to improvise. And he clearly had the training to do it. I'm just glad I wasn't driving by him at the wrong time. I figure he had to force his way into another vehicle or.....he hoofed it through the snow because he was close enough to where ever he was headed.

Either way.....I still lean toward this dude not being as great as some think. Too many rookie mistakes but then again.....he could be a laughing at us all.
 
Well I hope he comes to a slow painful end, perhaps freezing in the lousy weather & having coyotes nibble his toes & fingers off as he's still alive. NO excuses for attacking the innocents that started this whole thing, NONE. Good riddance to a waste of flesh.

He's not a hero, not on a justified mission, nothing but a sick depraved excuse for a human that deserves whatever fate befalls him.
 
S&W Fan said:
Well I hope he comes to a slow painful end, perhaps freezing in the lousy weather & having coyotes nibble his toes & fingers off as he's still alive. NO excuses for attacking the innocents that started this whole thing, NONE. Good riddance to a waste of flesh.

He's not a hero, not on a justified mission, nothing but a sick depraved excuse for a human that deserves whatever fate befalls him.
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Agree. There's nothing heroic about sneaking up and killing innocent people. In fact, it's about as cowardly as you can get. He's a coward. Just a big coward.

By the way.....the Facebook page "I support Christopher Dorner" went from 3000 likes yesterday...to over 6000 likes today. We live in a very sick and twisted society.
 
Xfuzz said:
Without a long reply.

Dude is dead as Abe Lincoln.

Weather conditions are preventing natures course.
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He probably is. But.....he could also be reading how many Kobe got last night while his coffee warms up.
 
I read somewhere that they're checking vacation houses, cabins, huts...in the area. I wonder if they're actually forcing entry or just looking for tracks or what? And if he didn't have help in the area or leave another vehicle for himself he would either have to be holed up in a building, dead or long gone in a different vehicle. He would be fairly easy to ID up there.....

The area's a big ski resort, right? Are the resorts shut down due to this situation?
 
MaximumLawman said:
I read somewhere that they're checking vacation houses, cabins, huts...in the area. I wonder if they're actually forcing entry or just looking for tracks or what? And if he didn't have help in the area or leave another vehicle for himself he would either have to be holed up in a building, dead or long gone in a different vehicle. He would be fairly easy to ID up there.....

The area's a big ski resort, right? Are the resorts shut down due to this situation?
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Yes, it's a major ski resort for the area, I have skiied there.....although certainly not in the class of the Sierra Nevada farther north.

The resorts are open. It's almost a all or nothing situation I think. If he knows what he's doing, all planned, etc.....then they got a major problem. If he's not superman, had some bad breaks.....he's done for. And probably already on the wrong side of the lawn. Or in this case.....snow.
 
Well, it's interesting that the police have not published a bolo for any other type of vehicle, which suggests that he didn't have any other vehicles registered in his name or that they're all accounted for....Which would also suggest he would have had to either rent one, borrow one or steal one or have an accomplice do one of the above for him if he's not in a cabin somewhere. Dead makes sense, but eluding capture is more interesting.

I read an interesting article on Eric Rudolph which seemed to do a pretty good job of debunking the idea that he lived in the woods for 5 years at the locations the FBI knew about.
 
yeah .. wrong side of the snow pack ...
in the course of the search they've filled the air with FLIR equipped heli's
can't detect his body heat if he dont have any
 
Or gone back to plan "A", which was his original, go to Mexico. If he did have another vehicle(or obtained one), could run from Big Bear to Mexicali. Wonder if he has friends in Ensenada. Bad choice, as there are a whole lot of retired LEO from California living in Baja.(I wonder if any of his old enemies are livin' down there in the sunshine...)
 
JJEH said:
According to Fox news they now think he might hit at the Grammy awards tonight...
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According to National Public Radio at the time, David Koresh and the Branch Davidians might have had "stolen nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union".

If you'd taken the word of the media for it at the time, "Beltway Snipers" Muhammed and Malvo were a combination of Vasili Zaitsev and Carlos Hathcock. I even know a VERY skilled 1,000 yard rifle competitor who fell for the hype.

Merely being able to hit a target with a handgun at seven yards, and to achieve Marksman with a rifle puts him head and shoulders over the average criminal with whom police deal. Actually having a thought out "plan" makes him a veritable Dr. Moriarty.
 
Moriarty never killed anyone. Moriarty was a fictional character. This clown obviously had some general idea of how he was going to get revenge.
He might be stupid, but there's lots of stupid serial killers, on record.
 
Simple.....Fired wrongly or not you don't start killing people....Life isn't always fair.......His actions now said it all.....What possible justification can there be.......NONE !!!!
 
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