^^^sorry I blanked out there for a moment and lost track of time^^^ 
The Russians have gone in
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cmj8591
Member
I go with the "flub". I think you're giving the guy who said it way more credit than he deserves when you say he said it on purpose to get a particular response from Putin. I really don't think he's capable of that kind of international gamesmanship.
cmj8591
Member
I think it's a mistake to think of Putin as a madman. I don't think he just went in there because he could. I think it was highly calculated. He might have been wrong about the result but he's not doing it just to project power. Putin doesn't exist in a political vacuum in Russia. He has a cabal that he needs to satisfy in order to keep in power. We really don't know what political undercurrents he's dealing with over there. What he saw was a opportunity to take advantage of weakness in the resolve of the leadership here in the US to play to his political support. Just like when he walked into Crimea. I think we get in trouble when we try to compare his actions to some of the "cult of personality" leaders in small, relatively inconsequential, countries. Think N. Korea.
UncleEd
Member
Easy to see that some here
believe Mr. Putin is the
sharpest knife in the world
gamesmanshp drawer.
believe Mr. Putin is the
sharpest knife in the world
gamesmanshp drawer.
Great first-person account from Ukraine here, from The Atlantic...
What Foreign Fighters Are Seeing in Ukraine - The Atlantic
What Foreign Fighters Are Seeing in Ukraine - The Atlantic
He famously wears his heart on his sleeve, and having just spent time with Ukrainian refugees, was very moved by their plight...hence the outburst. (I'm neither endorsing nor criticizing what he said, just explaining my take on it.)
I think Putin outsmarted himself, and now his ego and arrogance won't let him do the sensible thing, which would be to declare victory and get what's left of his army out of Ukraine.
cmj8591
Member
I'm going to stick with the "flub".
Not a flub-messaging…
smithman 10
US Veteran
For what it's worth
Which may be very little, here's a story, mostly about Russian gas exports having to be paid for in rubles, where the spokesman says Russia is not considering the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Kremlin Warns No Rubles, No Gas, Says No Plans To Use Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine
Which may be very little, here's a story, mostly about Russian gas exports having to be paid for in rubles, where the spokesman says Russia is not considering the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Kremlin Warns No Rubles, No Gas, Says No Plans To Use Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine
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Absalom
SWCA Member, Absent Comrade
I would respectfully disagree and see it exactly the other way round. The Kims in Korea have always been superbly rational actors with laser focus on one goal: keep themselves in power by making it look too dangerous to anyone to try to remove them. And they've succeeded spectacularly; they've played with US presidents, and run circles around the Chinese, who theoretically are their "protectors".
In contrast, Putin really does seem to have added an irrational element, a sense of a historic mission, to the mix. I think it has more to do with the "greatness of Russia" than any wish to restore the USSR; Putin misses Russian power, not communism. A free and independent Ukraine, as the most important non-Russian former Soviet republic, was the biggest threat to that. And when it became clear that America's drift into isolation would not continue under this president, he decided he better act now. But obviously not fast enough.
UncleEd
Member
Good article.
I came away with a few thoughts,
the first being one I heard in the
Army, "Informed troops are good
troops."
The other, in context of the Javelin
and tanks, is that major platforms
such as the aircraft carrier are
facing doom. It's an idea that I
read about years ago and many
in the U.S. Navy believe is true.
cmj8591
Member
That's a good point. The difference is that Kim really isn't an international player. N. Korea could slide off into the Sea Of Japan and really not have much of an affect on the world economy or much of anything else for that matter. That's why he keeps shooting missiles and doing photo ops with centrifuges. He needs to keep everyone's attention. The world isn't really worried about N Korea shutting off the energy supply to Europe. I'm sure there's some nationalism involved with Putin but I do wonder what political forces he's dealing with. I think a lot of his nationalism rhetoric is to try and give the population a reason to go along with this. Wrap it in the flag and hope that goes down a little easier. The nationalism thing tends to loose it's luster when your economy starts to tank. It's a little hard to talk about your isolationism point without running afoul of the political topic thing here. I do think that a lot of things changed with the changing of administrations that made it more attractive for Putin to go now instead of during the previous one. Just as I think their was a reason he didn't wait to take Crimea until that administration ended also. I also think that it didn't help that the present administration, both before and after taking the wheel, talked about how Ukraine would be welcomed into NATO if they wanted to join. Who know if they would have but perception is reality.
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The first rule of diplomacy is to never say what you're thinking. In this case, I'm glad he did. Other times, not so much.
By now, Putin has to wonder if his nuclear forces are as inept as his conventional sources.
Considering some his contenders he may just be.
smithman 10
US Veteran
By now it should be clear
That I am on a mission to convince myself and others that the fear of nuclear warfare is overwrought.
So this morning I did a wee bit of internet searching (can't believe it never occurred to me sooner) on Putin's children and grandchildren.
It seems he had two kids with his wife, from whom he is now divorced and that there are grandchildren and perhaps illegitimate children with other women.
All this is shrouded in confusion and secrecy to a certain degree, which tells me he is trying to not only maybe protect his reputation but protect the offspring themselves from undue attention and danger, etc.
So he's a grandpa. Like me and many others on this board. Most granddads, even the nastiest ones, don't want to see their progeny incinerated.
And, nasty as Putin is, I imagine he wants to protect his family too. Hopefully this may temper his anger, frustration and disappointment at how the campaign in Ukraine is turning out and prevent him from doing the nuke thing, even if he must face the reality that he has fundamentally failed in this adventure to restore Russia to "greatness."
More armchair psychiatry from a person who has no training for it, I'll admit but it gives me hope that the world won't see the worst from him.
That I am on a mission to convince myself and others that the fear of nuclear warfare is overwrought.
So this morning I did a wee bit of internet searching (can't believe it never occurred to me sooner) on Putin's children and grandchildren.
It seems he had two kids with his wife, from whom he is now divorced and that there are grandchildren and perhaps illegitimate children with other women.
All this is shrouded in confusion and secrecy to a certain degree, which tells me he is trying to not only maybe protect his reputation but protect the offspring themselves from undue attention and danger, etc.
So he's a grandpa. Like me and many others on this board. Most granddads, even the nastiest ones, don't want to see their progeny incinerated.
And, nasty as Putin is, I imagine he wants to protect his family too. Hopefully this may temper his anger, frustration and disappointment at how the campaign in Ukraine is turning out and prevent him from doing the nuke thing, even if he must face the reality that he has fundamentally failed in this adventure to restore Russia to "greatness."
More armchair psychiatry from a person who has no training for it, I'll admit but it gives me hope that the world won't see the worst from him.
cmj8591
Member
I'm really not worried about Putin and nukes. In the end, and this applies to the Chinese also, it's about money and power. Dead people have neither. I worry more about a nuclear Iran. People who will fight for religion tend to not worry about killing themselves and everyone else. In their world, dying to advance a religion is righteous and there's those 72 virgins waiting on the other side. Hopefully we don't send them anymore pallets of Euros to advance their nuclear programs.
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