Here we go again NO AMMUNITION

scoobysnacker said:
This is the issue; if the shelves never went empty, you don't feel the need to buy a good personal supply. You simply keep shooting at your leisure, and when you get down to a box or so, you go back and buy more. It's available, and you don't need to spend a small (or large) fortune keeping it at YOUR house.

Vista and Olin would NOT have made a killing... there would have been an initial surge when lots of new gun buyers took ownership, and there would have been a good run on defensive ammo (and honestly, who other than the police NEED more than a box of good SD ammo? For most of us, it eventually turns into range fodder).
Given that probably greater than 90% of gun owners don't shoot more than a few times a year, the time of profit would have passed by the winter of 2020. Nobody would have the urge to stockpile, as it's available and cheap. Some new owners would become regular shooters, most would become casual owners and shoot maybe 100 rds in a year.

The way things have been, with limited supply and thus high demand, that's exactly what has made ammo so profitable. That's why they can now flood the market with prices 2-3x what they had been, and people are grateful to get it.
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I see your point. But, some rise in capacity has to happen. Look at the population growth we’ve seen in 25 years. There are more pockets to pick than way before.

A business who stands still, gets left in the past. Of course, unless your a monopoly who owns all of the market which is what we deal with sadly, which cements what you said.
 
I've been in several gun stores in the last few weeks. No shortage of ammo of any kind as of yet. Plenty of ammo on GB also.

As always, keep your ammo stock up, as space and your budget allow. By this point, if you're not doing so, lessons of the past have taught you nothing.
 
Muddyboot said:
I've been in several gun stores in the last few weeks. No shortage of ammo of any kind as of yet. Plenty of ammo on GB also.

As always, keep your ammo stock up, as space and your budget allow. By this point, if you're not doing so, lessons of the past have taught you nothing.
Click to expand...

Yes, the lesson is, don't buy at the height of the market.

That's why nobody should be buying now.
 
Duckford said:
Yes, the lesson is, don't buy at the height of the market.

That's why nobody should be buying now.
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I completely agree with the theory.

The problem we're facing, is determining when/where the height of the market is.

In the fall of 2021, we saw Norma 9mm for $300 a case, steel-cased 223 for $315, steel-cased 7.62x39 for $270 a case.
Not great, but moving in the right direction. And we saw smatterings of S&B, PPU and Fiocchi (3 BIG import brands that tended to set the price of the market) appear, in what I at least assumed would be a return of competitive prices "soon".

It's now spring of 2022, and all three calibers have climbed back up in price. The (Russian and Ukrainian) steel-cased rifle ammo is banned and starting to get in demand. 9mm hovers around $400 a case for new brass.

By all rights, this should be over now, I don't think people are continuing to hoard. I think they're being frugal, maybe buying something here and there, but nowhere near the volume we saw before.
I don't think it ends until life returns to normal, and then only after a year of normalcy.
 
I recently finished a brick of Winchester SPP and the price marked on the box was $24. I used to pay a lot less thirty years ag and my dad payed a lot less than I did. When I got my first car in the 60’s gasoline was regularly 24.9 cents per gallon and often during gas wars it was 17.9 cents. I recall my dad buying gas during a gas war for 14.9 cents. For you younger guys and gals a gas war is between competing stations in close proximity to each other. They would lower the price to try and get the other guys customers. Usually it would be two or three stations (full service stations) across the street from each other. The prices got down to insane levels. They even gave premiums like dish towels, drinking glasses and such if you did a fil up. We even got “Green Stamps” at some gas stations ( full service mind you) and some grocery stores that could be redeemed for merchandise.

These days are over and so are $8/50 9mm and $24/1000 primers. If you’re waiting you’re going to be seriously disappointed. Just go to the gas station or grocery store. Try to buy a car especially at a reasonable price. I happened to check out a new Hundai the other day just out of curiosity and the dealer had a $4500 premium, market adjustment, added to retail. The premium may go away but the retail prices will continue to go up.

I reload so I don’t buy factory ammo other than 22LR but started looking at retailers tonight. No connection but Natchez has a pretty good sale going right now with 36 cent per round Remington 9mm, Blazer and American Eagle. They even have 380 at 36 cents. Not cheap by 2 year ago standards but really cheap compared to a year ago. Just a guess but I’m guessing this is the new normal. I’m no economist but think we’re headed into some very serious inflation. This morning the wholesale price index came out and year over year we now have 10%. I’m predicting by December we’ll 14-15% and looking a stock market crash and recession in the face. Folks will be glad they bought at $18/50.
 
luvsmiths said:
If you think this is the height of the market, wait.
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There comes a point where you quit. Driving prices higher doesn't mean gouging customers forever. It just means they eventually sell less and some people quit completely.

It isn't about top dead center of the height of the market, but rather the point where you just don't care anymore. That's enough, and in real world economics, that's what actually matters.

Hopefully, the scalpers are desperate and pushing this panic nonsense because they fear a real correction, and they will rightfully be skinned.
 
I’m indifferent to it all. If ammo comes down, it comes down. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. The only guns I’ve shot in the last two years are new (used) ones I bought. 100 rounds of my reloads to verify there are no issues, then clean and back into the safe. I have several thousand rounds loaded, and the ability to make several thousand more. At this point, with rising gas prices, food prices, and just higher everything, with the state the world is in and what my children will likely inherit from it, I just can’t bring myself to care one bit about the ammo situation. I still have probably 50,000 rounds of .22 for when I need to shoot something.
 
cmj8591 said:
If you think this is the height of the market ON ANYTHING, wait. When the butcher's bill comes due on the $30 trillion (and rising) national debt, the price of ammo will be the least of your worries.
Click to expand...

That's where I was going with this. People are talking as if ammo is the only thing that went up, or is hard to get. I have been waiting on a piece of furniture for a year. I can go into even more, but won't. EVERYTHING is scarce. Need a car? Paying more for gas? Lumber? Copper prices, along with ALL commodities. National debt is a BIG part, and it has risen under ALL admins. And it aint goin down. Watch the fed interest rate "decision today".... Mortgages up over 1 per cent over 6 weeks or so...

This is just the beginning.

Ammo is the least of the worries. Buy it. Don't buy it. Make up your own minds. But as my father used to say "Quit yer bellyachin"
 
kbm6893 said:
I’m indifferent to it all. If ammo comes down, it comes down. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. The only guns I’ve shot in the last two years are new (used) ones I bought. 100 rounds of my reloads to verify there are no issues, then clean and back into the safe. I have several thousand rounds loaded, and the ability to make several thousand more. At this point, with rising gas prices, food prices, and just higher everything, with the state the world is in and what my children will likely inherit from it, I just can’t bring myself to care one bit about the ammo situation. I still have probably 50,000 rounds of .22 for when I need to shoot something.
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cmj8591, and you, pretty much summed it all up nicely.

There are bigger fish to fry these days.
 
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Muddyboot said:
I disagree, you should buy anytime you can afford it, ammo accumulation should be relentless. 50 rounds, 100 rounds, whatever you can find.

The future does not mean cheaper ammo.
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I agree. The only sensible approach is to assume ammo and components are going to dry up for the foreseeable future. Any other view is a gamble.
 
Muddyboot said:
I disagree, you should buy anytime you can afford it, ammo accumulation should be relentless. 50 rounds, 100 rounds, whatever you can find.

The future does not mean cheaper ammo.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but I can't agree. The more shooters who buy at hyper inflated prices the longer the prices will remain excessively high. I'm not telling anyone not to shoot but don't buy everything you see and call it good. (all IMO of course)

I truly believe we can force the prices down but it will take a while.
 
When I see ammo that I shoot at a current reasonable price, I buy some.
I ain’t waiting for the good old days price back when JC was a Corporal.
If it does go back low, which I don’t expect, I’ll buy more.
Did I ever tell you about the time I bought gas in Phoenix during a gas war for 17 cents a Gal?
I ain’t buying gas again until it goes back to 17 cents!
 
I'm not looking for the "good ol days" but IMO 5¢ a round is reasonable since in recent history it has been 2¢ a round. I'm not looking for 17¢ a gallon of gas but under $2.50 would be nice. :rolleyes:
 
In early February 2022 I got a case of CCI 9mm range ammo online at $16.50 per box of 50. As of March 15 it’s still available online at that price
 
scoobysnacker said:
This is the issue; if the shelves never went empty, you don't feel the need to buy a good personal supply. You simply keep shooting at your leisure, and when you get down to a box or so, you go back and buy more. It's available, and you don't need to spend a small (or large) fortune keeping it at YOUR house.

Vista and Olin would NOT have made a killing... there would have been an initial surge when lots of new gun buyers took ownership, and there would have been a good run on defensive ammo (and honestly, who other than the police NEED more than a box of good SD ammo? For most of us, it eventually turns into range fodder).
Given that probably greater than 90% of gun owners don't shoot more than a few times a year, the time of profit would have passed by the winter of 2020. Nobody would have the urge to stockpile, as it's available and cheap. Some new owners would become regular shooters, most would become casual owners and shoot maybe 100 rds in a year.

The way things have been, with limited supply and thus high demand, that's exactly what has made ammo so profitable. That's why they can now flood the market with prices 2-3x what they had been, and people are grateful to get it.
Click to expand...

It's dealers, not manufacturers, who have made the most profit in this shortage. They mark the ammo up 2x and limit sales. Most dealers are able to get ammo, they just sell it in different quantities at higher prices these days. I'm not judging because I don't have a brick and mortar retail establishment but it could be that the new method of sales saved a few businesses. They certainly don't have the inventory of firearms to sell anymore. They never made that much profit selling firearms before the perfect storm anyway. I don't think it's going to change because dealers now have hit on a sustainable business model....inflated ammo prices.
 
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